Israel-Iran: Intambara yo mu kinyegero iriko igana habi

Intambara yo mu rufuri imaze igihe kirekire ariko itigeze itangazwa ku mugaragaro hagati y'ibihugu bibiri vyo mu karere k'uburasirazuba bwo hagati bisanzwe birabana ay'ingwe , Irani na Isirayeli, isa n'uko iriko irashuha.

Iran yagirije Israel ko ari yo yatumye haduka igiturika ku ruganda rwayo rwo guhingura ubutare bwa uranium ruri ahitwa Natanz mu mpera z'indwi iheze.

Israel ntiratangaza ku mugaragaro ko ari yo yakoze ico Iran yise "igikorwa co gutoba" ariko ibinyamakuru vya Reta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika na Israel bisubiramwo abategetsi bavuga ko ari igikorwa cakozwe n'igisata ca Israel kijejwe igendereza ryo hanze, Mossad.

Irani irarahira ikarengwa ko itegerezwa kuzokwihora "umwanya izobishakira".

Ibi si ubwa mbere bibaye. Bije bikurikira icuka kibi kibandanya ciyongera n'ibikorwa vyo kwihorahorana hagati y'ibi bihugu, mu gihe bigenda vyongereza akariro mu ntambara yavyo yo mu kinyegero ariko bikagenda vyiyubara - gushika ubu - kugira ngo ntihabe intambara yeruye iboneka ko yosambura cane ibi bihugu vyompi.

None inkurikizi z'ibi bintu ni iyahe, vyorangira gute?

Iyi "ntambara yo mu kinyegero" ishobora kwihwezwa mu mpande zitatu zitandukanye.

Umugambi wa Iran wo guhingura ubutare bw'ubumara

Israel ntiyemera ivyama bivugwa na Iran ko umugambi wayo wo guhingura ubutare bw'ubumara ari umugambi w'amahoro.

Isirayeli izi ko Irani iriko ikorera mu kinyegero ibikorwa vyo guhingura ibirwanisho vy'ubumara yongere ironke uburyo bwo gukora ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda.

Mw'ijambo yaraye ashikirije igihe yakira umunyamabanga wa reta wa Amerika ajejwe kwivuna abansi ejo ku wa mbere, Lloyd Austin, umushikiranganji wa mbere wa Israel Benyamin Netanyahu yavuze ati: "Mu karere k'uburasirazuba bwo hagati, nta kintu gikomeye giteye ubwoba kandi giteye umutima uhagaze nk'ubutegetsi bubi muri Iran".

Ejo ku wa mbere nyene, uwuserukira Israel i Londres, Tzipi Hotovely, yabwiye BBC ati: "Irani ntiyigeze ihagarika ibikorwa vyo guhingura ibirwanisho vy'ubumara hamwe n'ibisasu vya misire bishobora kubikoresha. Umugambi wa Iran wo guhingura ibirwanisho vy'ubumara ...ni akaga k'isi yose".

Kubera ibi yibaza, Israel kuva kera ibandanya ikora ibitero mu kinyegero, yonyene kandi ata gabisha rihabaye, mu ntumbero yo kudindiza canke kuburizamwo umugambi wa Iran wo guhingura ubutare bw'ubumara.

Muri ibi bitero harimwo gutera imashini za nyabwonko umugera witwa Stuxnet, watowe ubwa mbere mu 2010, utuma ibikoresho vya Iran bipfa.

Mu ntango z'iki kinjana, hari abahinga ba Iran bakomeye mu bijanye n'uguhingura ubutare bw'ubumara bapfuye mu buryo budatomoye, nayo mu kwa cumi na rimwe 2020 habaye igitero gikomeye hafi ya Tehran, umugwa mukuru, cahitanye Mohsen Fakhrizadeh.

Uretse ko yari umuhinga karuhariwe mu bijanye n'uguhingura ubutare bw'ubumara, yari afise kandi ikibanza gihambaye mu murwi wa gisirikare wegukira ingabo za Iran, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Israel ikaba yari izi ko ari we yari arongoye ibikorwa vya "gisirikare" vyo mu kinyegero mu mugambi wa Iran wo guhingura ibirwanisho vy'ubumara.

Uwu mugambi ugeze ku rugero rushobora kuba ruteye ubwoba.

Mu 2015 Iran yateye igikumu ku masezerano mpuzamakungu yiswe Plan d'Action Global Conjoint/Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), ni ukuvuga integuro y'ivyokorwa ihuriweko na bose, yatumye Iran ikurwako ibihano nayo yemera ko haba ibikorwa bikomeye vy'igenzura.

Ariko mu 2018, Perezida Donald Trump yakuye Amerika muri aya masezerano, aca afatira ibihano bikomeye Iran, maze nayo ica yishura mu kurenga kuri bimwe mu vyo yari yariyemeje, cane cane mu kwongereza urugero rwa Uranium - ubutare bw'ubumara bushobora gukoreshwa mu guhingura umuyagankuba, canke ibirwanisho - gusumba urugero yari yemerewe.

Perezida Joe Biden ashaka gusubiza Amerika muri aya masezerano ariko ni mu gihe Iran yokwemera gushira mu ngiro ivyo yiyemeje.

Iran ubu ivuga iti: "Oya ntitubizeye, banza mutangure mwebwe. Tuzoshira mu ngiro ivyo twiyemeje ata guhigimanga mubanje kudukurako ibihano".

Kugira ngo bagerageze gutorera umuti iki kibazo, abajejwe ibiganiro bava mu bihugu vyinshi bari mu nama ku mugwa mukuru wa Autriche, Vienne. Ariko Isirayeli yo ibona ko ata kamaro ko gusubira kuvyura aya masezerano uko asanzwe ameze.

Dr Michael Stephens umusesanguzi mu karere ko mu burasirazuba bwo hagati mu kigo c'abahinga c'i Londres ciswe Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), avuga ko ivyo Israel iherutse gukora yabikoze n'ibigirankana kugira ngo itobe ibi biganiro.

"Abanya Israel ukwabo bariko bagerageza guhuvya umugambi wa Iran wo guhingura ubutare bw'ubumara, mu buryo buboneka ko, n'aho ari igitero kiboneka ko carimwo ubuhinga bwo hejuru, ari ingendo ishobora kugira ingaruka mbi.

Ubwa mbere, utu twigoro twa Israel dushobora gutuma Amerika ihindura aho ihagaze muri bino biganiro mu gihe iriko irondera gusubira muri aya masezerano na Iran.

"Ariko ica kabiri, abanya Iran bashobora kurondera kwivuna, mu bitero bishobora gukorwa ku matungo y'abanya Israel kw'isi. Israel yarerekanye ko ishobora gusambura uwu mugambi wa Iran, ariko ku giciro kingana gute"?

Ingendo zo mu mazi

Hari ibintu bidasanzwe vyabereye mw'ibahari mu misi iheze. Mu ntango z'uno mwaka, hari ubwato bwo muri Israel MV Helios, bwononywe mu gihe bwariko buca mu kigobe ca Oman. Bwaratobotse ahantu habiri, Israel ikaba yaciye yihutira kwagiriza umurwi wa Iran, IRGC. Iran irahakana ko ata ruhara yabigizemwo.

Mu kwa kane, ubwato Saviz, bwa Iran mu bumanuko bw'ikiyaga gitukura, bwarononywe n'ibibombe vyo mu mazi. Israel hamwe n'ihuriro rirongowe na Arabia Saoudite mu gihugu ca Yemen bizi ko ubu bwato Saviz bufasha abarwanyi b'aba Houthi bashigikiwe na Iran muri Yemen.

Bwabonetse butwaye amato matomato y'intambara, inkoho zikomakomeye hamwe n'ibikoresho bikomeye vyo guhanahana amakuru , ariko Iran ivuga ko ubu bwato bwayo buri muri ako karere ku mugambi w'amahoro, kandi ko ari uburenganzira bwayo, ica yagiriza Israel ko ari yo yakoze ico gitero.

Ibinyamakuru vya Amerika bivuga ko mu mezi 18 aheze ingabo za Israel zateye n'imiburiburi amato 12 ya Syria, atwaye ibitoro n'ibikoresho vya gisirikare vya Iran.

Syria na Liban

Kuba Siriya iri mu ntambara hagati mu gihugu mu myaka cumi iheze, bisa n'ivyahishije ibikorwa vya gisirikare vya Israel mu karere.

Iyo ntambara hagati y'abanya Syria ubwabo yugururiye inzira igitigiri kinini "c'abahanuzi" ba Iran b'ingabo z'umurwi IRGC, zisanzwe zikorana n'umurwi wa Liban Hezbollah, incuti pfa mpfe ya Iran, mu gufata mu mugongo ubutegetsi bwa Perezida Bashar al-Assad wa Syria.

Rimwe na rimwe, izi ngabo za IRGC zararenze imbibe za Israel zirinjira gato mu misozi ya Golan yigaruriwe na Isirayeli.

Israel itewe umutima uhagaze n'umugambi wa Iran wo guha ibirwanisho ntahusha na za misire imirwi ikorana nayo kandi ishobora gutera ibisagara vya Israel , iyi nayo ikaba imaze gukora ibitero bitari bike ku birindiro vya misire vy'iyi mirwi hamwe n'inzira bizananamwo muri Syria, gushika ubu Iran ikaba ata bitero biboneka vyo kwihora irakora.

Muguheraheza

Icinyegeje muri ino ntambara yo mu kinyegero ni agasotoro. Nta ruhande na rumwe rwemera kuboneka ko rufise intege nke, ariko yaba Iran canke Israel , vyompi bikeneye kugenda vyitonda kugira ngo ntihagire na kimwe gitera intambara yeruye.

Ku bijanye n'umugambi wo guhingura ubutare bw'ubumara, biragaragara neza ko igendereza rya Israel ryashoboye gucengetera mu nzego zijejwe umutekano za Iran ku rugero runini cane, ku buryo ishobora kurungika ba maneko ku rubuga ikanakora ibitero ku nyabwonko bishobora kuburizamwo integuro za Iran zo kwivuna.

Ku bijanye n'ingendo zo mu mazi, Israel iri ahantu hatayorohereza.

Nivyo irashika ku kiyaga gitukura iciye ku kivuko cayo ca Eilat , ariko hirya yayo, Iran ifise inguvu zidasanzwe kubera inkengera ndende cane ifise ku mazi y'ikigobe hamwe n'imirwi yayo y'aba Houthis muri Yemen.

Muri Syria na Liban, Iran ifise ubushobozi bwo kurungika imirwi ikorana nayo gukora ibitero vya misire kuri Isirayeli ariko ibi navyo birimwo ingaruka mbi zikomeye.

Isirayeli yaramaze kumenyesha ku mugaragaro inguvu izokoresha mu kwihora n'aho izotera: muri Iran.

John Raine, umuhinga mu bijanye n'iterabwoba kw'isi mu kigo cigisha imikenyuro , International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), avuga ko kubera inguvu zidasanzwe za Israel mu bijanye n'igendereza, Iran ata yandi mayeri ifise yo kwihora uretse gukoresha imirwi ikorana nayo.

"Igiteye umutima uhagaze Iran, ni uko incuti yayo nyayo ishobora gutera Israel ari umuhari Hezbollah ariko iki naco cokwunyura ibintu mu gutuma Hezbollah yinjira mu ntambara Iran idashaka.

Ubusanzwe abanya Iran bokworoherwa no gukora ibitero mu turere dutandukanye irya n'ino ariko rero bariko bararengerwa na Israel".

"Abanya Israel bafise ubushobozi bwo kurasa kure, mu bubangutsi, kandi iyo bashatse guhushura, nk'uko bamye babikora muri Syria, barakubita bidasanzwe".