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January sees changeable weather ahead

Derek Brockway

Last year every month apart from August was warmer than average and in the UK it looks like 2014 was the warmest on record.

John Goodger who runs a weather station at Velindre near Glasbury in Powys recorded a mean temperature of 10.7° Celsius in 2014, the highest since he began keeping records 43 years ago! The previous record was 10.6° Celsius in 2006.

Meanwhile, Neville Dunn from Mynydd Isa in Flintshire only recorded 13 air frosts in 2014, the lowest in 40 years but his warmest year was 2007 with a mean temperature of 11.3° Celsius, over a degree warmer than 2014.

Looking ahead, the weather this week is going to be very changeable indeed with some rain and sunshine. A strong jet stream will propagate across the Atlantic during the second half of the week. Deep areas of low pressure will pass close to Scotland bringing more unsettled conditions with stronger winds and gales. Temperatures will vary from near normal to mild with little if any frost expected.

There is no sign yet of any cold and snowy weather heading our way but during the second half of the month the North Atlantic Oscillation index which is currently positive is forecast to drop lower. This would suggest a weaker jet stream with a greater chance of blocking and colder weather, but there are other factors to consider too such as sudden stratospheric warming which can lead to cold spells in the UK. See also John Hammond's feature on BBC Weather.

Mynydd yr Hendre near Carno in Powys by Mike Blood

Forecasting what is going to happen beyond the next five to ten days is a challenge but for those hoping for snow there is still plenty of winter left yet and remember March 2013? It was the coldest for over 50 years

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