What we'll be thinking about in 2010

It's that time of year. Steve Hewlett's look back at 2009 in journalism (BBC Radio 4's The Media Show) is as good a review as any. But what about a preview?

Here are a few random thoughts. Not predictions; rather the things journalists will find themselves thinking about or dealing with in 2010. Satisfyingly, my top five begin with (or, ahem, with a tweak, can be made to begin with) the letter 'P'.

Poll ...

... aka the 2010 General Election.

There has to be one and, whether it's early (the last Thursday in March is still being whispered here and there) or late, journalists will face the same tests.

Whatever happens in the vote itself, the new House of Commons will see an unprecedented turnover of MPs with all parties promising to clean up Westminster politics - the legacy of the Telegraph's scoop on MPs' allowances.

But here's a question - will the evident fascination that voters had last summer with the minutiae of MPs' supermarket receipts re-appear a year on as terminal cynicism and a record low turnout? And will the way political journalists cover the campaign feed what seems to be a growing rejection of representative politics?

For the first time, there'll be televised party leader debates. They could help keep coverage to a proper analysis and dissection of the policies that divide the parties. But there's the danger, too, that they'll be part of the biggest political beauty contest ever.

Will journalism become obsessed with the numbers - election coverage as horse race commentary? Will the only story in town be who's ahead in the polls (don't we ever learn??) or the chances of a hung parliament?

And what part will the blogosphere, Twitterdom or Messageboardania play in the campaign?

Will this be the election when political citizen journalism comes of age in the UK? Or will the millions of blogging and Tweeting voters wielding mobile phone cameras produce a gaffe-fest where the on-the-record/off-the-record unguarded word or action seals candidates' fates ... irrespective of their political worth?

Paywalls

All eyes are on News Corporation and Rupert/James Murdoch. But paywalls in different guises are springing up all over the news web. There'll be more experiments in 2010.

Sceptics argue that paywalls for news can't work, for all sorts of reasons. Supporters argue that justice is on their side and that there is no alternative, for all sorts of other reasons ... and if that means changing the prevailing culture of the web, taking it back to the mid-1990s, so be it.

Where will paywalls end up? Will they survive? If so, what will they look like? Who knows. My hunch is that we won't see 'the paywall solution' in 2010 ... or 2011 for that matter. There probably won't even be one single solution that all news organisations employ.

But here's something worth thinking about - news isn't like other media content. People have never paid for news alone, item by item. Never valued their paper solely for its news content. Newspapers have always been a bundle that includes news. It's the bundle we've always paid for and that's been attractive to display and classified advertisers.

Never forget, incidentally, that Rupert Murdoch is the bundler par excellence ...

Personal web

... meanwhile, in another part of the forest, personalisation, unbundling and rebundling web content is the only game in town.

Google/Yahoo etc aren't battling it out for domination of the personal web because it's a pretty idea - it's because it makes money. It also changes the way we consume our media and the way anyone marketing anything can find people likely to buy what it is that they have to sell.

We journalists are taking a long, long time to understand what this means for news - but, if we think about nothing else in 2010, we should think about this.

Privacy

Are we, guided by Mr Justice Eady, stumbling unwittingly towards a common law right of privacy that will shackle news organisations and their ability to report in the public interest?

Or are we, guided by human rights legislation, at last groping towards a proper balance between the public's right to know and the private individual's right to protect their privacy.

Expect more high-profile cases and, probably, a continuing trend in favour of privacy.

After the Trafigura fiasco, will any multinational with something to keep out of the public domain be rash enough to attempt another 'super injunction'? Best not bet against other attempts - but the web and social networking, to say nothing of determined journalists, seem likely to render such attempts futile.

Partnerships

During 2010, more and more journalists across the UK will find themselves in a new universe where partnership replaces competition. For many, it'll be quite some break with traditional, combative, journalistic culture.

Will it save local and regional news? Perhaps. Of itself, it can hardly do any harm.

The bigger question is will it do anything to save, or rather revive, original journalism in local and regional news organisations? Journalism that offers its communities genuine democratic oversight?

Hmmm. We'll see.

Peril

2009 was a grim year for journalists and media workers - depending on your definition, at least 70 journalists, perhaps double that, died doing their job during the year, ending with the death of Calgary Herald reporter Michelle Lang in Afghanistan.

But most journalists who died were not war reporters on overseas postings; they were journalists working on their own domestic output. Thirty-two died in political violence in the Philippines alone.

It would be right to hope for but probably wrong to expect a turnaround in what is becoming a depressingly remorseless upward trend.

Happy New Year?