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| Friday, 23 August, 2002, 06:38 GMT 07:38 UK Is change on the way in North Korea? ![]() North and South Korea have indicated that progress is being made in the first cabinet-level talks between the two for nine months. Kim Ryong-song, leader of the North Korean delegation emerged from Monday's 70-minute session, telling reporters: "You may think optimistically." A South Korean spokesman said he expected progress to be made in the remaining two days of talks. High on the agenda at the Seoul talks are moves to reconnect a cross-border railway and to set a date for further reunions between family members separated since the Korean War ended 50 years ago. The talks came after a recent increase in North Korean diplomatic activity, with the government of Kim Jong-il saying it also wants to resume high-level contacts with the US and Japan. What do you hope to see achieved at the Seoul talks? Is change on the way in North Korea? Can relations be eased between the country and the international community? This Talking Point has now closed. Read a selection of your comments below. North Korea has been playing these games for many years. They are smart enough to throw carrots to the international community to show signs of change when in reality, it's all an illusion to get more aid. It's silly to think any developments in North Korea as positive. Fact of the matter is, until North Korea gets a new leader, elected by the people, we are being fooled by their empty gestures. Reunification of the Koreas will remain an unattainable goal until the regime in Pyongyang collapses. In light of recent talks, it is important to keep this fact in mind. "Binding infrastructure" such opening rail and road routes, however, is an attainable and necessary goal. Such developments are necessary to avoid the economic catastrophe that looms for both Koreas in the not too distant future, when Kim Jong-il et al lose this game of "survivor".
Kenn Lett, USA I believe that eventually North Korea will fade away just like East Germany did. I think that if the south and the UN continue negotiations with the north, allow free trade to start with the north, continue to allow family members to see one another, eventually things will start to change for the people in the north. It would be in both countries' interest for them to unite. It would help stabilise the area, Korea could become a powerhouse of Asia thus thwarting China's movements in Asia. The Korean economy could eventually surpass Japan as the dominant trading partner in Asia. North Korea's economy is in serious trouble. The Korean people in general are very pleasant but they have had a difficult regime for a long time. Now that they are trying to reform the west should welcome it and try to help them. The American president, in my view, mistakenly called them the "axis of evil" but he should try to make this enemy his friend. The Korean people need some goodwill.
Simon, Canada I am guessing N Korea will invade the South before 2010. Slow economic recovery and repeated food shortages, will make it reach out and grab the South in surprise. What better way to engage a surprise attack than at a time when the North is opening up more talks, adhering to concessions, and playing nice guy for a while. I just hope they don't use nuclear weapons.
Byung-Moon Cho, South Korean in London For better or for worse, they are being starved into submission - by their own doing. I wouldn't hold my breath for real change for quite some time until Kim's government is ready to admit abject failure. The one thing Kim Jong-il et. al. are interested in doing is preserving their powers, and that means the status quo. In their minds, change = capitulation, and they would lose their privileges. They offer just enough so-called concessions to keep the South and the US interested. That's carefully balanced by naval incursions and anti-US rhetoric. Wouldn't want to appear too keen now, would we?
Miguel Jonsson, Andalucia, Spain I think that change in Korea will be inevitable. Nothing stays the same, and this Cold War Relic [North Korea] will have to change and eventually reunify with South Korea. I would hope for a peaceful resolution, but I think it is impossible
Shawn McLeod, Canada Stop talking to these extortionists North Koreans. Put them on notice that they've got to embrace democracy, a market-based economy and demonstrate a desire to live peacefully with her neighbours before we show them any good will. They are not entitled to anything.
Suresh Gnasegarah, Malaysia Since there is no way North Korea can get economic help under its present guise, it needs to pretend it is changing to receive aid. I cannot see it working. In my opinion the North Korean government is hoping to get more aid while staying in power and deceiving its people. Change will come only when people the present government is ousted by the people, as happened in Eastern European countries more than 10 years ago. I actually have more hope of some type of peaceful negotiated reform in Korea than in Iraq. I think the hard line that President Bush has taken has actually stimulated these talks but I know many would not want to give him any credit. Change is coming whether the North Korean government wills it or not. Perhaps the government is hoping to emulate the Chinese model, i.e. allowing economic liberalization without letting go the reins of power. I don't personally think such a formula will work very well in North Korea because the people have been suppressed much longer than the Chinese and their country is much more destitute than was China when Deng began the transformation about 20 years ago. Ultimately the North and South will be re-united, in my opinion. The real question is whether the North will be absorbed by the South, as happened in Germany, or remain somewhat autonomous. I don't think that change is on the way. When North Korea regains its strength it will close its doors again. Unless the North Koreans realise that democracy is needed change will never come.
Joseph Steinberg, South Korea In the absence of any hard data, the only safe hypothesis about North Korea's government is that it is deeply divided between numerous factions. North Korea seems to recognise the value of public relations, and uses these foreign meetings, festivals, and Kim Jong-il, to advertise its new attitude. Without consistent policy improvements, this looks like just another plea for economic handouts. My father was stationed in South Korea many times from the 70s and early 80s. Having accompanied him twice as a dependent child I still remember the constant threats that North Korea made towards the South. It seemed like every other week everyone was on alert expecting an attack. Flash forward to today and talking to friends currently stationed there, North Korea is still doing the same. Labelling North Korea as part of an "axis of evil" was undiplomatic and extremely dangerous. Comments of this kind give rise to anti-American feeling, fuelling resentment and creating the conditions that encourage terrorism. The Secretary of State is no doubt trying to calm the situation down, and one can only hope he succeeds in doing so. The two Koreas are surrounded by the four major superpowers, namely, USA, China, Japan and Russia. As a Korean, I'm just wondering which one of them really wants the two Koreas to be reunified irrespective of the expected one or two political or economic systems, in the name of one country.
Chris, USA There are two parties to a relationship. North Korea has changed somewhat over the last decade, the USA has not. If anything, the USA has become ever more belligerent, bossy and unaccommodating. It is true that North Korea has a long way to go before it merits normal relations, but every time they offer a finger, the USA asks for an arm and a leg. In such an environment, I do not see how we are going to achieve normalisation. It seems to me that the USA thrives on having enemies and is reluctant to let go of this enemy by making peace with them. The naval battle not too long ago shows that North Korea has a long way to go. There are still too many of the older generation that want to still see the two sides divided. I see the North just seeking the aid and as soon as they feel comfortable with their situation, they will close their borders to the world again. The curtain that separates North and South is slowly opening, but it will take a long time. Hopefully in my lifetime.
Shaun Thomas, Ohio, USA I don't think that great changes are on the way, especially considering that the Great Leader Kim Il Sung is still technically the figurehead in charge of the DPRK despite being dead. It is possible that the moves are related to aid, but other reasons may include part of the effort to reduce tensions with the south after the recent maritime clash, and to distance the DPRK from the "axis of evil" tag, particularly at a time when speculation about military action against Iraq is running high. Real change will only come about when the inevitable happens and this dinosaur of a state implodes. When the end comes we can only hope it's a relatively peaceful transition. The prospect of a North in its death throes, lashing out with weapons of mass destruction are frightening. Either way the reconstruction that will have to be carried out largely by South Korea will be immense. It's fortunate that the Korean people collectively are up to the job. Why must we prolong the Cold war in this region.We failed to prevent the union of Vietnam and now we are trying to stop the Koreans unite as a nation.
Ralph Sato, USA |
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