By Alex Kirby BBC News Online environment correspondent in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

The United Nations is finalising a plan to try to prevent conflict by tackling environmental threats.

This project will succeed by making the link between environment and conflict more visible

Frits Schlingemann

It is working with international defence groups, and says it is getting wholehearted support.

The project will start in south-eastern Europe and central Asia, but may be extended to other regions later.

The UN says the cost of the project is "nothing" by comparison with military spending. The project is called the SEE/CA Initiative: Enhancing Environment and Security in South-Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

Details were given to delegates at the Global Mountain Summit here.

Incentives for violence

It is the brainchild of the UN Environment Programme (Unep), working with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Other partners are the UN Economic Commission for Europe, the UN Development Programme, the Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia, and the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

Frits Schlingemann is Unep's Europe representative. He told BBC News Online: "OSCE is being very positive, a real partner.

"And ideally the initiative should involve Nato as well - I think, as it builds up, Nato will become part of it."

Unep says the pilot regions "are in the midst of tectonic political and economic shifts, with substantial environmental and social consequences.

"Actions that reduce environmental stress, guarantee access to vital resources and remove economic incentives for violence present opportunities for building a more sustainable peace."

Alien invaders

It believes there is the potential for local and even international security to be threatened in both regions.

Possible triggers include "rapid population growth, economic vulnerability, inequitable distribution of resources, and ineffective, repressive or corrupt governments".

Food resources are key to stability

Unep says: "Per capita GDP in western Europe is 10 times that of the rest of Europe, whereas GDP in many countries of eastern Europe and central Asia fell (for some by as much as 40%) after 1990.

"Internal economic fragility, criminality and ethnic tensions place great pressure on newly democratic transition states. Ensuring economic development will intensify pressure on natural resources."

Unep has listed some of the main environmental threats it believes must be tackled. They include the introduction of alien plants and animals as people cross borders more often, and increasing water scarcity.

Growing grievances

It says: "Poor water quality as a consequence of pollution and lack of infrastructure is among the major causes of infant mortality in the two regions."

It is also worried about old and obsolete factories and power plants.

It says contaminated land, soil erosion and bad farming and irrigation methods are creating food insecurity, while severe over-exploitation of forests in Armenia, Georgia and central Asia is triggering avalanches and worsening water quality.

Other problems include over-fishing in the North Sea, Baltic, Mediterranean, Black Sea, Caspian and the Sea of Azov.

The report also warns of the potential for environmental and ethnic grievances "to fuel political insurgencies".

It says Unep will need to "translate its sectoral responsibilities into a broader capacity to act as a think-tank for the UN on environmental matters".

Visible links

Mr Schlingemann told BBC News Online: "That really means going back to the original vision for Unep. It's meant to be a catalyst, persuading other people to act.

Water shortages could spark conflict

"The cost of the initiative is peanuts, absolutely nothing, when you compare it with defence spending. But it is designed to avert conflicts, even all-out wars.

"I know our list of the potential threats doesn't include some pretty contentious ones, like nuclear power. But it's not exhaustive, and the stakeholders will expand it.

"This project will succeed by making the link between environment and conflict more visible, and it will work elsewhere.

"I think it could even work in the Middle East, on the West Bank - and we're absorbing the lessons of what's been done there already."