Australian batsmen are quite comfortable cutting and pulling. This is another reason I would opt for Bresnan, whose natural length is a little fuller and more reliable than that of Tremlett
Jonathan Agnew
England can retain the Ashes this week and the team hotel is buzzing with good cheer and genuine optimism.
With their wives and children now firmly on board, the players are very relaxed, yet focused.
It will be a major surprise to me if they fail in their mission over the next five days.
It is not Andrew Strauss's style to name his team until the morning of the match, so we were not expecting news of Stuart Broad's replacement during his press conference.
It is not a straightforward decision; like-for-like points the finger firmly at 6ft 7in (2 metres) Chris Tremlett, but with only four bowlers to turn to, Strauss has to be convinced of his reliability under pressure as well as his ability to bowl a meaningful spell or two into the strong breeze.
This is where Tim Bresnan will come into consideration, and would be my preference.
The pitch is green and hard enough for Ricky Ponting seriously to consider playing a four-man pace attack.
This might also have something to do with the unbelievable decision by Australia's selectors to choose Michael Beer - a left-arm spinner in his first season of first-class cricket.
Nothing against Beer, who bowled steadily against England in the warm-up match here six weeks ago, but it smacks of absolute panic and uncertainty - and has left Australia's cricket followers with gaping jaws.
Ponting was left searching for control - and failing to find it at Adelaide. To usher in another spinner of such inexperience is extraordinary under the circumstances.
Strauss plays down bowler selection
Steve Smith is only a part-time leg spinner, who was dismantled by Ian Bell in the game against Australia A. He is not yet capable of playing the role of the solitary, lead slow bowler in a Test line-up but he is a decent batsman.
It might be, however, that the selectors should have eyed up the pitch and kept Marcus North in the squad before jettisoning him completely.
If the pitch has the pace and bounce that its colour and appearance suggests it might, it will test the discipline of England's batsmen and bowlers.
The extra bounce and carry takes time to adjust to for all the batsmen who must all take time and patience at the start of the innings to get used to what are, for English players, very alien conditions.
They have performed poorly here in recent series not merely because of shortcomings in the way they have batted, but because the fast bowlers could not hit the right length.
When the ball flies dramatically through to the wicketkeeper, it is very tempting to get carried away and bowl too short.
Australian batsmen, being fine players off the back foot, are quite comfortable cutting and pulling and this is another reason I would opt for Bresnan, whose natural length is a little fuller and more reliable than that of Tremlett.
Were England contemplating five bowlers, I might think differently.
With Australia in such disarray that they will field an entirely different attack for the third time in this series, and make up to five changes from the last match, they do appear ripe for the taking.
England have the confidence and the form behind them finally to bury their unhappy recent history and become the first team to win the Ashes here for the first time in a generation.
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