Sean Kelly missed green by four points in 1984

Still feeling the effects of a wasp sting suffered during the time trial the previous day, O'Grady had further bad luck 20 kilometres from home when a mechanical problem forced him to change bikes.

So with a mass sprint for the line rapidly approaching, he was pedalling along on Chris Jenner's bike.

Zabel's victory in the sprint itself never seemed in doubt.

But the Australian appeared to be boxed in and it took a late surge, with a shoulder lean on the world champion Romans Vainsteins, for him to snatch second place by a tyres width.

Without that, Zabel would be in green now.

It is impossible to tell what will happen on the final day, but the probability has to be that Zabel will come through to snatch the prize at the last.

It is set to be the closest finish since 1984, when the Belgian Frank Hoste, who's on the race as a commentator for Belgian radio, beat Irishman Sean Kelly by just four points.