Burnley

Nicola Pearson
BBC Sport journalist

We have only just gone past the halfway stage of the Premier League season, so how much can really be read into predictions?

For supporters of Wolves, Burnley and West Ham, they will be hoping not very much.

Leeds and Nottingham Forest, however? They would breathe a bit more easily.

Throughout the season, Opta's "supercomputer" is continually predicting how the final table might look and what percentage chance clubs have of winning the title, finishing top four, in Europe and also relegation.

But for those teams currently occupying the relegation spots in the Premier League, they may want to avert their gaze.

Having only just picked up their first win last weekend, most Wolves fans will have been settled on the fact they would be returning to the Championship come the end of the season.

And Opta's predictions would suggest the same.

Of course, 14 points off 17th place with 17 games to go, it is still very much mathematically possible to save themselves - and with five points in three games there has been an uptick in form - but with a predicted chance of survival of just 0.73%, it would take something incredibly special.

Burnley's return to the top flight has not been the easiest.

While the Clarets have been picking up points, it has not been at the rate needed to get themselves out of the danger zone.

Another point was accrued against Manchester United on Wednesday night, taking them one point behind West Ham in 18th but, with Nottingham Forest's win over the Hammers on Tuesday, it still leaves Burnley eight points off safety.

Like Wolves, Opta's statistics and simulations suggest Scott Parker's side will be back in the second tier next term, with just a 6.59% survival chance unless they can start turning more draws into wins and eking out points from the narrow defeats.

As for West Ham, the defeat by Forest could prove to be one of the most damaging for their season.

A classic six-pointer, a win could have seen them close the gap to just one point. Instead, it sits at seven and sees them with a now 88.76% chance of relegation.

The change of manager from Graham Potter to Nuno Espirito Santo is yet to have the desired effect and both the head coach and the ownership are coming under pressure from the fanbase.

It was pressure that Daniel Farke was feeling at Leeds before their turnaround in results that has left them with just a 7.49% chance of relegation, while Sean Dyche may once again be steering a team to Premier League safety with a less than 10% chance of dropping out of the top flight.

But this is the Premier League, and teams have upset the odds before.

We asked for your thoughts after Wednesday's Premier League game between Burnley and Manchester United.

Here are some of your comments:

Burnley fans

David: We haven't suddenly turned the season around — we're still down the table and fighting every week for points but results like this against big clubs can lift morale and build confidence. I do feel proud and optimistic, because we stood up, scored goals and took a deserved point at Turf Moor. That's the kind of performance you can feel good about even when the season is tough.

Tavis: Thought Marcus Edwards was lively for the Clarets - decent on the ball and found the final pass. Lacking at times but happy with the point.

Neil: A point well earned. Needed fresh legs in the second half. We have to stop playing around at the back. The opposition get enough as it is, so why give them the opportunity for more? Onward & upward...let's pray.

Martin: The players showed relentless commitment with at least a pair of sensational goalline clearances. Their keeper was on top form, too. United's second was a touch of class but Burnley hit back with one of their own. Scott Parker can know his team are genuinely giving 100 per cent. On that performance it's tough to see them in a relegation struggle.

Man Utd fans

Mark: Once again we can't finish teams off. I'm glad for Benjamin Sesko who actually looked dangerous in the second half, but Manuel Ugarte, Matheus Cunha, Lisandro Martinez and Casemiro were awful. They need to put a full shift in if we are to progress.

Harry: If you can't score more than two goals from 30 chances, you don't deserve to win. Casemiro has run his race. That said, there are good signs and it's far too soon for anyone to point a finger at Darren Fletcher and not back him. There is no such thing as instant change.

Tom: Other than a couple moments of defensive weakness, not a bad game. Twice cleared off the line, a top-notch save to prevent Sesko's header, Bruno Fernandes off the post and Shea Lacey off the crossbar. United were unlucky not to come away with all the points.

Jonny: Maybe Ruben Amorim wasn't completely to blame for a lack of mobility in midfield, unfamiliarity in defence and a failure to convert chances. On the plus side, though, Sesko looks much better playing with proper wingers to supply the service to him and it was good to see Bruno and Kobbie Mainoo back.

Image source, PA Media

Ex-Premier League midfielder Michael Brown believes Burnley's 2-2 draw against Manchester United on Wednesday demonstrated fight but that the Clarets' need help to stand a chance of surviving in the top flight:

"Can they strengthen and bring reinforcements in? For all of the effort, the desire and the tactical knowledge that Scott Parker is trying to drill in with patient build-up and creativity towards the top of the pitch, you still feel they're really light in that squad and they need reinforcements.

"They've lost their captain [Josh Cullen] for a long period of time so a strong, experienced midfielder would be key to try to keep the season alive.

"That gap is getting too strong for them now. They will run out of steam if they don't get points very quickly - it's just human nature.

"They've had a go this season but now that gap has started to look really concerning and over the next period of time I think it will get worse if they can't get a few players in during January."

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Pundits Danny Murphy and Stephen Warnock are on hand to bring you the action and talking points from the nine Premier League fixtures so far this week.

Watch on BBC iPlayer here

Burnley boss Scott Parker, speaking to BBC Match of the Day: "I demanded a reaction [after the Brighton defeat] and every one of the players wanted that reaction as well. So we come off the back of a result at the weekend where we were hugely critical, me as well to the group, and the players as well. We let ourselves down at the weekend in a certain element that we need to bring to a game of football in the Premier League - and we did that tonight.

"We started the game well. We get our noses in front and from there, going 2-1 down, the reaction after that was superb really. Pleased with a point and we move on - a big point for us."

On Jaidon Anthony's goal: "Brilliant goal. He was brilliant all round when he came on. He brought an energy, brought a calmness and showed his quality. Really, really pleased for Jaidon. It was a great goal and got us back in the game."

On whether this result gives his side belief: "There's definitely belief. There's been some tough times and of course that's the way it's been, but I see a pure belief in the team tonight."

Did you know?

• Burnley scored twice in a home league game against Manchester United for the first time since February 1968. They had only scored twice in total in their first nine Premier League meetings with them at Turf Moor.

• Anthony's equaliser was his fifth league goal of the season, but his first since September, ending a run of 13 games without a goal.

Simon Stone
Chief football news reporter at Turf Moor

Image source, Getty Images

In a difficult Premier League season immediately after promotion from the Championship, you have to take small wins.

Burnley's opening goal was credited to Manchester United defender Ayden Heaven, but it was certainly worth celebrating given it was the first time Scott Parker's side had taken the lead in the Premier League since 8 November.

Though the Clarets were slightly fortunate to still be ahead at the break, leading at half-time was something they had not experienced since October.

Bashir Humphreys, in particular, was outstanding - delivering the cross that turned into a goal, then producing a brilliant goalline clearance from a Matheus Cunha header the Brazilian had almost started celebrating so sure was he that it was going in.

Maxime Esteve showed equal resolve to get back and clear a dinked Patrick Dorgu effort off the line - underlining Burnley have not given up on survival just yet.

Jaidon Anthony's equaliser led to huge cheers at the final whistle.

Burnley are eight points from safety and the chances of escaping are receding fast. But their fans are still behind them, especially on nights like this.

Whether you were at the game or following from elsewhere, we want to know what you learned.

Have your say on Burnley's performance

What did you make of Man Utd's display?

Come back on Thursday for a selection of your replies

Hannibal Mejbri starts against his former club as Burnley boss Scott Parker makes four changes.

Maxime Esteve, Marcus Edwards and Lesley Ugochukwu are also included while striker Lyle Foster is on the bench after returning from Africa Cup of Nations duty with South Africa.

Burnley are desperate for a victory to end an awful run of two points and nine defeats from their last 11 games.

Burnley XI: Dubravka, Walker, Laurent, Esteve, Humphreys, Ugochukwu, Lucas Pires, Florentino, Mejbri, Edwards, Broja.

Substitutes: Weiss, Hartman, Larsen, Foster, Anthony, Tchaouna, Ekdal, Sonne, Barnes.

Bruno Fernandes returns to the Manchester United starting line-up, with Leny Yoro dropping to the bench as interim boss Darren Fletcher prepares to revert to a four-man defence.

Harry Maguire, Kobbie Mainoo and Mason Mount are all back on the bench after injury, while Fletcher's son Jack, but not twin Tyler, is also involved.

United XI: Lammens, Dalot, Heaven, Martinez, Shaw, Ugarte, Casemiro, Fernandes, Dorgu, Cunha, Sesko.

Substitutes: Bayindir, Maguire, Mount, Zirkzee, Malacia, Yoro, Mainoo, Fredricson, J Fletcher, Lacey.

There are eight games in the Premier League on Wednesday and BBC Sport will bring you every moment.

• Bournemouth v Tottenham

• Brentford v Sunderland

• Crystal Palace v Aston Villa

• Everton v Wolves

• Fulham v Chelsea

• Manchester City v Brighton

• Burnley v Manchester United (20:15)

• Newcastle v Leeds (20:15)

Kick-off times 19:30 GMT unless stated

Follow all of the action and reaction here

Chris Adams
BBC Sport journalist

History is on Darren Fletcher's side as the Scotsman prepares to take charge of Manchester United for the first time against Burnley. The Red Devils have lost just twice in 37 games against the east Lancashire club in all competitions since 1969.

In the Premier League, United have fewer defeats versus Burnley – two in 19 meetings – than against any other current top-flight team. Nonetheless, sixth-placed United are looking to secure the Premier League double over them for just the second time, having done it in 2020-21.

Much will be said about Fletcher's formation of choice, especially given United's defensive struggles on the road; under Ruben Amorim they failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their past 15 Premier League away games, conceding 28 goals, since a 3-0 win at relegated Leicester in March.

His under-18 side at United this season have mainly favoured a 4-3-3 approach, which, if transplanted into the senior side, would mark a departure from the 3-4-2-1 system that many observers saw as Amorim's downfall.

Regardless, United have looked pedestrian in attack without Bruno Fernandes, who is still a doubt for Wednesday, but there are signs that £62.5m summer signing Matheus Cunha is turning a corner.

The Brazil forward has scored three goals in his past five Premier League appearances, as many as in his previous 20.

He likes picking on the league's new boys too, with five goals and four assists in his past eight league games against promoted opponents.

Clarets' blues

As for Burnley, they are six points adrift of safety and remain without a win in their past 11 Premier League games (drawn two, lost nine). It is their longest top-flight winless run since a 12-match streak in 2009-10 – the same season a famous Robbie Blake strike secured their sole Turf Moor Premier League victory against United.

Clarets boss Scott Parker has struggled to make home advantage count in the top flight – the former England midfielder has lost 65% of his Premier League home matches as manager, the highest losing percentage of any manager to take charge of at least 25 home games in Premier League history.

As well as being the league's third lowest scorers, with 20 goals in as many matches, Burnley are also bereft of chances. They managed just five shots in their previous game against Brighton, the sixth time they have had five or fewer in a Premier League game this season. That is two games more than any other side.

It seemed like Ruben Amorim was poking the hierarchy at Manchester United with some of his cryptic comments over the weekend about doing his job without interference and that always felt like the beginning of the end for me.

So, to see him sacked a couple of days later was no huge surprise - it was like Enzo Maresca's Chelsea exit all over again - Amorim wanted to be put out of his Manchester misery, and the club obliged.

Compared to last year, they had improved - but only because they were so bad then. This season has been OK, but United need to be more than OK.

Burnley ran them close at Old Trafford earlier this season, when United needed a 97th-minute Bruno Fernandes penalty to win 3-2.

I can see this game being just as close because I just don't fancy this United team, whoever is in charge.

I get accused by a lot of United fans of having a dislike for them, but I just think they are bang average - that's the reason I don't go for them to win in these predictions a lot of the time.

They are still bang average now Amorim has gone, which is why I think Burnley will get something here.

I do have sympathy for Clarets boss Scott Parker because they have been OK too.

They have just come up a little bit short when it comes to scoring goals, which is why wins have been in such short supply.

Sutton's prediction: 1-1

Read the full predictions and have your say here

Grace Wheeler
BBC Sport

Burnley boss Scott Parker has been speaking to the media before Wednesday's Premier League game against Manchester United at Turf Moor (kick-off 20:15 GMT).

Here are the key lines from his news conference:

• On the players who have been featuring at the Africa Cup of Nations: "Hannibal [Mejbri] is back and he trained with us this morning, so hopefully we'll have him available. Lyle Foster will fly in tonight, it's a long journey so we will see how he gets in and whether he will be involved."

• On if the exit of Ruben Amorim from Manchester United has affected his team's preparation: "Nothing surprises you in football. Of course it changes our preparation, in terms of what we could be up against. We have done a lot of work in the last 24 hours to navigate around how things could look, but the full focus has been on us really."

• He added: "We are looking forward to this game because of the magnitude of it, because of the current situation we're in - this is the next game that we can try to change the cycle that we're currently in - and the reaction we need to bring to put right the wrongs from the weekend."

• Parker was asked if there is less pressure of his team, with more focus on United: "The spotlight probably shines brighter on the opposition, which I understand, but we put pressure on ourselves - certainly after the weekend - and us trying put right our wrongs and get out of this current predicament we're in."

• On strengthening during the January transfer window: "I think it will be in an area that we are looking to try to strengthen. It's a difficult market with a very short timeframe. There are areas [to strengthen], one being our captain [Josh Cullen] has got a long-term injury. We are constantly looking and we will try to do something in this window."

Follow all of Tuesday's Premier League news conferences and the rest of the day's football news

Natalie Bromley
Fan writer

Image source, Getty Images

If you had told me that one of the managers was to be sacked before Burnley faced Manchester United at Turf Moor this coming Wednesday, my money would not have been on Ruben Amorim.

The noise coming from the Burnley message boards is pretty clear: how is Scott Parker still in a job?

Burnley have not won in 11 games, picking up just two points out of a possible 33. They sit 19th in the league, six points from safety and now face United, Liverpool and Tottenham.

But the numbers tell only half the story. On the pitch the team is painful to watch: sluggish, negative, lacking in confidence and devoid of all inspiration. And responsibility for that rests on Parker's shoulders. It is literally his job to get those players disciplined and in the right mental place for a competitive game of football at an elite level. I simply do not believe that Parker has the necessary edge and ambition in his armoury to compete at the highest level.

At one point in the game against Brighton, trailing 0-2, Parker moved to five at the back and took our only striker off. And at that point, fans turned.

Everything about the club feels in disarray at the moment, and the fans are not just turning on the manager, they are turning on the board too. Message boards and social media platforms question what the board are doing to progress the club (not helped by the purchase by ALK of Espanyol and their en-masse attendance in Spain to watch them play Barcelona this weekend).

We are told that Parker's job is safe so what exactly, then, is ALK's plan to regain our place as an established Premier League side and stop this biannual hapless display in the top flight?

I am sure they have one, so some visibility of what we do next would be welcome.

Find more from Natalie Bromley at No Nay Never podcast, external

We asked for your thoughts after Saturday's Premier League game between Brighton and Burnley.

Here are some of your comments:

Brighton fans

Thomas: Much-needed three points! Lovely to see Gross back and he showed a touch of class when he came on. Kostoulas' performance and a clean sheet were also bonuses.

Fran: Very comfortable win. Burnley were poor. Thought we would have gone for more goals but seemed content with the two. Good that we won but I really do think we are a boring team to watch. There were similar comments from fans as we walked down the concourse after the game.

Jane: Very pleasing to finally get three points! It was fun to see the reaction to Gross. However, the performance was still ponderous and, to be frank, a bit boring at times. The exception was Kadioglu, who was quick and always moved forwards.

Burnley fans

Steven: Worst performance of the season. Absolutely no positives. We're six points from safety, which is unbelievable. Time for a change of manager and have a swing at staying up because we are going with a whimper at the moment!

Alan: Scott Parker's motive would appear to be if something's not working, don't do anything about it. Yet again, a defensive set-up breached with early goal - game over. How much longer do we have to endure this naivety? At least go down fighting so the fans can get behind the team.

Bob: Every travelling fan deserves a team that at least tries to win the game. No desire, no guts, no fighting spirit . Hang your heads in shame. People travelled for hours to support you and that's the effort you put into it.

Pundits Alan Shearer and Jermain Defo join host Mark Chapman to bring you the action and talking points from Saturday's Premier League fixtures.

Watch on BBC iPlayer here

And listen back to full match commentaries on BBC Sounds:

• Brighton 2-0 Burnley

• Wolves 3-0 West Ham

• Bournemouth 2-3 Arsenal

Steve Sutcliffe
BBC Sport journalist

Image source, Getty Images

On this evidence it is easy to understand why the bookmakers are offering such long odds on Burnley retaining their Premier League place in May.

Scott Parker's side currently look shorn of confidence and offered very little quality at either end of the pitch to suggest there would be any merit in taking those odds.

When there were opportunities to switch the point of attack, the visitors appeared to be too conservative or too slow in moving the ball.

The Clarets also lost too many duels as it rapidly became yet another bleak afternoon and they suffered a ninth defeat in 11 games.

The fact it took two minutes into first-half stoppage time before they fashioned their first opportunity on goal - when Lucas Pires' effort was well saved by home goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen - only served to underline their limited ambition.

And that was compounded early in the second half when their misguided attempts to play out from the back could have led to them conceding even more than Yasin Ayari's first league goal since September.

Scott Parker spoke to BBC Match of the Day after Burnley's defeat to Brighton: "I thought we were really poor. We didn't deserve anything from the game. It was a big shift from our performance against Newcastle the other night. We lacked a bit of belief and that was worrying.

"While in the game at 1-0, I didn't ever feel we had a massive chance. I'm searching for something that wasn't there today. We lacked something massively and we need to fix that.

"We were easy to play against at times. At this moment in time we're struggling with the general fitness of the squad and injuries. We didn't do ourselves any favours.

"What we need is what had previous to today. While results have not gone our way, we have been building on things. We are going to lose matches but the way we lost today was not one that was nice and not acceptable really."

Whether you were at the game or following from elsewhere, we want to know what you learned.

Have your say on Brighton's performance

What did you make of Burnley's display?

Come back on Monday for a selection of your replies

Germany international Pascal Gross has returned to Brighton from Borussia Dortmund and is on the bench for the Seagulls.

Brighton XI: Verbruggen, Kadioglu, Dunk, Veltman, van Hecke, Gruda, Rutter, Mitoma, Ayari, Gomez, Kostoulas.

Subs: Steele, De Cuyper, Boscagli, Coppola, Gross, Hinshelwood, Milner, watson, Welbeck

Scott Parker has made three changes to the starting XI that lost 3-1 to Newcastle last time out – Bashir Humphreys, Jacob Bruun Larsen and Jaidon Anthony come in today. Maxime Estève is injured, Loum Tchaouna and Marcus Edwards drop out.

Burnley XI: Dubravka, Humphreys, Ekdal, Laurent, Pires, Walker; Anthony, Florentino, Ugochukwu; Bruun Larsen, Broja.

Subs: Edwards, Weiss, Tchaouna, Sonne, Banel, Barnes, Brierley, Agyei, Pimlott.