Ukraine news latest: Five possible ways di war in Ukraine fit end

Inside dis tick cloud of war, e fit dey hard to see di way forward.

Di news from di battlefield, di diplomatic noise off, di emotion of di grieving and displaced; all of dis fit dey overwhelming.

So make we step back small and consider how di conflict for Ukraine fit play out.

Wetin be some of di possible ways wey politicians and military planners fit dey consider?

Few fit predict di future wit confidence, but dis na some possible outcomes. Most no dey clear.

Short war

Under dis possible way out, Russia go increase im military operations.

Dem go get more indiscriminate artillery and rocket strikes across Ukraine.

Di Russian air force - wey dia action dey low-key role so far - go launch devastating airstrikes.

Massive cyber-attacks go happun across Ukraine, targeting key national infrastructure.

Energy supplies and communications networks go dey cut off.

Thousands of civilians go die.

Despite brave resistance, Kyiv go fall witin days.

Dem go replace di goment wit pro-Moscow puppet regime.

Dem go either assassinate President Zelensky or e go run comot from di kontri, to western Ukraine or even overseas, to set up goment for exile.

President Putin go declare victory and witdraw some forces, den leave enough behind to maintain some control.

Thousands of refugees go continue to run go west.

Ukraine go join Belarus as one of Moscow client state.

Dis outcome no dey impossible but e go depend on if several factors change: Russian forces perform better, Russia send in more forces, and Ukraine extraordinary fighting spirit fade.

Mr Putin fit achieve regime change for Kyiv and di end of Ukraine mixing wit di west.

But any pro-Russian goment go dey illegitimate and vulnerable to insurgency.

Dis kain result go dey unstable and di possibility of conflict happuning again go dey high.

Long war

E dey more likely say dis git develops into very long war.

Maybe Russian forces go slow down, sake of low morale, poor logistics and yeye leadership.

Maybe e go take longer for Russian forces to takeover cities like Kyiv wey im defenders dey fight from street to street. Dem fit surround am for long.

Di fighting dey remind pesin of Russia long and brutal struggle for di 1990s to seize and mostly destroy Grozny, di capital of Chechnya.

And even once Russian forces don achieve some presence for Ukraine cities, maybe dia struggle to maintain control.

Maybe Russia no go fit provide enough troops to cover dat kain big kontri.

Ukraine defensive forces go transform into correct insurgency, well-motivated and supported by local pipo.

Di West den continue to provide weapons and ammunition.

And den, maybe afta many years, wit maybe new leadership for Moscow, Russian forces go eventually leave Ukraine, bowed and bloodied, just as di pipo before dem leave Afghanistan for 1989 afta 10 years of decade fighting Islamist insurgents.

European war

E fit dey possible say dis war fit spread go Ukraine borders?

President Putin fit want to regain more parts of Russia former empire by sending troops into former Soviet republics like Moldova and Georgia, wey no be part of Nato.

Or miscalculation and escalation fit just happun.

Oga Putin fit declare Western arms supplies to Ukrainian forces na act of aggression wey warrant retaliation.

He fit threaten to send troops go di Baltic states - wey be members of Nato - like Lithuania, to establish land corridor wit Russia coastal exclave of Kaliningrad.

Dis fit dey seriously dangerous and risk war wih Nato.

Under Article 5 of di military alliance charter, attack on one member na attack on all.

But Oga Putin fit take di risk if im fell say na di only way of saving im leadership.

If im dey, perhaps, face defeat for Ukraine, im fit dey tempted to escalate further.

We now sabi say Russian leader dey willing to break long-standing international norms.

Dis same logic we fit apply am to di use of nuclear weapons.

Dis week, Oga Putin put im nuclear forces on higher level of alert.

Most analysts doubt say dis mean e dey likely to use am or soon too.

But na reminder say Russian doctrine allow for di possible use of tactical nuclear weapons for battlefield.

Diplomatic solution

E dey possible, despite everytin, for diplomatic solution?

"Di guns dey talk now, but di channel for tok-tok must always remain open," according to UN Secretary General António Guterres.

Certainly tok-tok must to continue.

President Macron of France don speak to President Putin on di phone.

Diplomats say dem put dia ears to di ground for Moscow.

And, surprisingly, Russia and Ukraine officials don meet for tok-tok for di border wit Belarus.

Dem fit no make much progress. But, by agreeing to tok, e e like Putin don at least agree to di possibility of negotiating ceasefire.

Di key question na weda di West fit offer wetin diplomats dey refer to as "off ramp", American term for an exit from major highway.

Diplomats say e dey important di Russia leader know wetin e go take for di West to lift dia sanctions so day face-saving deal fit at least dey possible.

Consider dis possibility.

Di war go badly for Russia. Sanctions begin to affect Moscow.

Opposition grow as deadi body dey return home.

Oga Putin dey wonder if bin don bite more dan im fit chew.

Im judge say continuing di war fit be greater threat to im leadership dan di humiliation of ending am.

China intervene, putting pressure on Moscow to compromise, warning say e no go buy Russia oil and gas unless e de-escalate.

So Putin start to look for way out.

Meanwhile, Ukraine authorities see di continuous destruction of dia kontri and conclude say political compromise fit beta pass dat kain destruction and loss of life.

So diplomats engage and dem do deal.

Ukraine, say, accept Russian rule over Crimea and parts of di Donbas.

In turn, Putin accept Ukrainian independence and im right to get deeper ties wit Europe.

Dis fit no dey likely. But e no dey beyond possibility say dis option fit come up from di destructions dis bloody conflict.

Putin ousted

And what of Vladimir Putin imsef? Wen im launch im invasion, im declare: "We ready for any outcome."

But what if dat outcome na im losing power? E fit be like say e dey unthinkable.

Yet di world don change in recent days and e possible to tin of dis kain tins.

Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies for Kings College, London, write dis week: "Now e dey likely say dem go get regime change for Moscow like for Kyiv."

Why im for fit tok dis? Well, maybeOga Putin dey pursue disastrous war.

Thousands of Russia soldiers die.

Di economic sanctions bite.

Putin loses popular support.

Maybe threat of popular revolution dey.

Im use Russia internal security forces to suppress dat opposition.

But dis turn sour and enough members of Russia military, political and economic elite turn against am.

Di West den make am clear say if Putin go and dem replace am wit more moderate leader, den Russia go see di lifting of some sanctions and restoration of normal diplomatic relations.

Bloody palace coup go happun and Putin is out.

Again, dis fit no dey likely right now.

But e fit no dey possible if pipo wey don benefit from Putin no longer believe say im fit defend dia interests.

Conclusion

Dis different possible ways out fit no just happun exactly as we paint here - some of each fit combine to produce different outcomes.

But any how wey dis conflict play out, di world don change.

E no go return to di status quo ante or how e bin dey before.

Russia relationship with the outside world go dey different.

European attitude to security go dey transformed.

And di liberal, international rules-based order just fit rediscovered wetin e dey dia for in di first place.