Nigeria presidential election results 2023: How PDP 'kasala' make Tinubu president-elect

Nigerian President-elect Bola Tinubu for lose di election if na last year dem hold am - if na before di main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) divide into three ways.

Di combined votes of im three closest rivals - PDP, LP and NNPP, one member and two former members of PDP - for dey enough for di party to return to power, as all of dem join togeda, get 60% of di vote.

Di presidential candidate of di PDP Atiku Abubakar get 29%, Labour Party Peter Obi get 25% and Rabiu Kwankwaso of di NNPP get 6% votes.

Meanwhile, di next Nigeria president bin dey elected wit 37% votes.

E for dey easy for a united PDP to capitalise on di electorate wey don dey tired of di economic hardship, widespread insecurity plus di plenty inflation dem experience under di outgoing President Muhammadu Buhari and di ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) to win di election.

Di APC na di fruit of oga Tinubu hard work and e dey popular as "political godfather" - wey help put oga Buhari for office eight years ago.

Yet dat old proverb wey tok say 12 months na long time in politics prove true - and di 70-year-old former Lagos govnor, supported by im party machinery, waka enta victory.

Reinvention wey go wrong

Pipo describe am as di most competitive presidential election for Nigeria since di end of military rule for 1999.

Dis na because of di third candidate wey show face. For di last two decades, di major political parties for Nigeria na two, for di state and for di national level.

Although some candidates don come from oda parties to dey elected as presidency at dat time but none of dem truly make waves like oga Obi, wey get di support of many youths.

E be di vice-presidential candidate for di PDP for 2019 - and im old party bin rule Nigeria for di first 16 years afta di kontri return to democracy.

For dat time, na national party wey connect wit millions all over di kontri, although dia strongholds dey for di south, where dem get assurance of votes for every election cycle.

Afta di PDP experience dia second loss for national polls for 2019 under Alhaji Abubakar, e dey clear say di party need to reinvent imsef to attract di millions of young Nigerians wey feel frozen out of di political system and wey dey frustrated by a political class dem see say dey responsible for di kontri lack of progress.

Religious and ethnic sensitivities also play role for di kontri split between a largely Muslim north and mainly Christian south wit hundreds of different ethnic groups.

Many southerners feel say di PDP bin take dia loyalty for granted afta e choose to throw open dia presidential ticket to candidates from all areas of Nigeria, instead of make dem limit am to applicants from di south-east - One area of di kontri wey neva produce an executive leader.

Dis allow Mr Abubakar wey be Muslim and former vice-president from di north-east, to run once more.

Mr Obi, a Christian wey come from di south-east and wey don serve two terms as govnor of Anambra state, comot di PDP days to di party primary.

Five powerful southern govnors also refuse to support Mr Abubakar for di election - Some pipo dey reason say some of dem work for im opponents. While Mr Kwankwaso, a northern politician wey dey popular for Kano, Nigeria second-largest city, also bin don break ranks and go NNPP to get a shot at di presidency.

Though di PDP now don reclaim some northern states wey e lost give APC for 2019, e also bleed heavily for di traditional southern strongholds, wia Mr Obi do very well.

Voters dey disenfranchised

Dis one work for APC favour, wey stick to di strategy wey don serve dem well in di past - and dat na to secure votes for dia base for di north and west.

Problems wey also occur for opposition strongholds also help dem, wia election officials bin arrive late - for some places three-and-a-half hours afta polls for don close. Dis one make plenty pipo no fit vote.

Many excited first-time voters wey arrive dia polling units early mor-mor no fit vote because of di late arrival of election materials.

"I reach my polling unit by 8:00 but, 11 nack I no see anybody," one first-time voter for one polling unit along Airport Road for di capital, Abuja, tell BBC afta e later manage to vote.

For di southern city of Lagos, wia many young, educated residents dey support Mr Obi, BBC reporters meet many wey come early but leave afta dem wait for hours for polling officers wey neva show up.

For some polling units wey get thousands of registered voters, voting no start until 13:00 - one-and-a-half hours before polls suppose close, and despite di extension of voting for dos kain places, many no still vote as night fall and security officials gatz leave.

For some voting centres for di opposition strongholds, voting no take place at all and cases of ballot-box snatching also dey, violence and voter intimidation happun for opposition states for di south like Rivers, Lagos and Delta.

Election monitoring group Yiaga, say only 10% of polling units for di south-east and 29% for di south bin start accreditation and voting by 09:30 local time on Saturday - one hour afta polls open.

Some 63% of polling units for di south-west and 42% of polling units for di north-west, wey be known APC strongholds, bin start to vote at dat time.

International observer missions from NDI-IRI and di EU say di process lack transparency.

In di end, di turnout na just 27% and Mr Tinubu receive 8.8 million ballots - less dan 10% of di 93 million registered voters.

For im acceptance speech, Mr Tinubu acknowledge say lapses dey for di election but add say "say e dey few and no reach to affect di outcome of dis election".

Risk wey pay off

Many regard Mr Tinubu as a master political strategist and given say e campaign for di presidency under the slogan: "Emi lo kan", wey mean say "na my turn" for Yoruba, e dey possible say e bin don dey plan im ascendency for a while.

Im APC grow out of di Alliance for Democracy (AD), wey former president Olusegun Obasanjo bin try destroy 20 years ago wen e be president and leader of di PDP.

Yet, Mr Tinubu no gree join di PDP as oda states and govnors do dat time. Instead e use im plenty resources for Lagos, wia e bin serve as govnor from 1999 until 2007, to build a following for di south-west.

E constantly reinvent im small party until 2013 wen e merge wit oda political parties for di north create di APC and dia successful campaign for 2015 bring Mr Buhari to power.

Dat na di first time wey opposition party go defeat incumbent but e show Mr Tinubu how to waka di complex path to di presidency.

Yet Mr Tinubu, wey be southern Muslim, take risk for im ambition. Instead of choosing a running mate from one of di Christian minorities for di north wey for tick di boxes and give di political balance for Nigeria, e pick a northern Muslim.

E no wan lose di huge Muslim voting bloc for di north - though many Christians para sake of di Muslim-Muslim ticket.

Mr Tinubu main opponents don vow to challenge im victory, as dem allege di inability of Inec officials to upload results onto dia site from polling units na evidence of dia bias.

Di PDP and Labour Party wey don join togeda, dem bin first waka comot di venue wia dem dey announce di result and dem also hold two joint press conferences togeda.

Dia supporters fit dey wish say dem take dat approach before di election.