Burkina Faso Coup: Military strongmen dey return to West Africa?

Afta di military takeover for Burkina Faso, regional analyst Paul Melly dey chook eye inside why West Africa don dey get new wave of coups recently.

Less dan five months afta sojas enta national television for Guinea to announce say dem don comot President Alpha Condé from office, dem comot Roch Kaboré for Burkina Faso on Monday.

And dat na apart from di double coup for Mali wia army officers comot President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta for August 2020.

Dem bin promise Ecowas say dem go run elections by next month, but for May 2021, di second coup happun and dem dey plan to stay for power for five more years.

Yet for West Africa, almost all kontris be officially democratic konties, even di ones wey dia leaders go use kurukere means to stay for power.

But with three members of Ecowas (Economic Community of West African States) under military rule, military regime don dey come back?

But dat na di easy way to look at tins.

Guinea reason for dia coup dey different. Dis na as dem don get long history of bad goment and repression.

For 2010, Alpha Condé take ova power as di kontri first democratic head of state.

Howeva, e start to dey act like dictator, even bend di law so e go fit run for third term in office for 2020 as e dey jail opposition.

Wen e crash yakata for September afta sojas promise to return di kontri to democracy, almost all Guineans including im own political party hail di move.

How insurgency lead to coup, again

For Burkina Faso, like Mali, na di jihadist security kasala cause di coup.

Di tori about Islamist attacks dey vex and fear pipo for streets and sojas dey vex as dem dey send dem to fight jihad without beta weapons, low pay and even dem no dey feed dem well.

Dis week, Burkina Faso coup, like 2020 coup for Mali na sake of say lower and middle ranking sojas wey dey risk dia life for frontline para.

Dia vex increase wella afta November 14 attack for Inata gendarmerie garrison for northern Burkina Faso wey kill 53 sojas.

Ova di last two years, more dan 2,000 pipo don die, 1,000 schools don close and 1.5 million pipo don run comot from dia houses, with plenti of dem for di capital dey beg for money and food.

E don reach 10 years wey Islamist groups dey disturb security for di Sahel region.

Even though di intervention of di French and West African forces for 2013 help to comot towns from militant control, e no stop di expansion of di violence.

And for di past three years, e don be like insecurity just dey increase, especially for Burkina Faso as e dey affect communities wey connect di border to Niger so di border no safe, even as e dey near di capital of Ouagadougou.

How Kaboré lose im popularity

Dem elect Oga Kaboré for 2015 afta dem chase comot authoritarian regime.

Five years later, im win second term, for election pipo reason to der widely fair.

Howeva afta dat, pipo start to doubt say im fit handle di jihadist wahala for di kontri.

Afta weeks wey military vex, sojas for key bases for Ouagadougou organise on Sunday and by Monday e don turn full blown coup.

Dis one clearly resemble how military take ova power for 2020. Dat one happun afta serious wave of jihadist attacks di year before, and even though di goment don make some progress.

But as di Burkina Faso bin dey try deal with di insecurity issue, na im di Inata attack happun wey cause more fear and anger.

Three months later, dem don comot Kaboré from power and lock am for military detention.

E fit be like na jihad dey ginger dis military takeovers with dia attacks, howeva tori of attacks dey create fear and helplessness wey go test army loyalties anyway.

Even now, rumour dey run up and down say Niger Republic fit also face military takeover.

Howeva unlike Burkina, Niger Presido Mohamed Bazoum don start move to carry villagers wey run comot sake of Islamist violence go back with beta military presence.

Weda dat one go work remain to be seen,

Some commentators don tok say dem don dey use security too much to handle di Sahel kasala and say development na di answer.

Howeva, many pipo for di region say e no dey possible to handle di economic and social challenges without beta security on ground.