Wetin go happun next to di Wagner network worldwide afta dia retreat from Moscow?

On one ogbonge Saturday, Wagner private army send units enta Moscow for rebellion against di Russia military leadership before dem gree for deal and di units go back.

According to di last minute deal, Wagner famous oga, Yevgeny Prigozhin go dey exiled to Belarus and im fighters wey no join Saturday mutiny go fit sign contracts wit di Russian Ministry of Defence.

For post inside im Telegram channel afta dem gree to di deal, Prigozhin tok say "dem" wey fit mean di Russian Ministry of Defence wan "disband" Wagner. But e no clear weda dat na di only reason for im sudden show of force.

E tok am again for audio message wey im post on Monday evening wey be di first time im tok since Saturday, say no one gree to sign contract wit di defence ministry and im mercenary company dey bound to end by 1 July.

E neva clear wetin go happun to Wagner fighters wey dey currently stationed abroad if di Wagner Group dey disbanded.

Di group dey active for plenti kontris round di world like Libya, Sudan, Syria, Mali, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Venezuela, Burkina Faso and Madagascar.

Dem don accuse Wagner fighters of committing atrocities for Libya, Syria, di CAR, Mali and Ukraine, many of di atrocities dem dey accused of na against unarmed civilians.

One UN diplomatic source wey don dey follow Wagner bumper to bumper for years tell BBC say if di group fight wit Russian goment and dey disbanded, dia units for Africa no go dey resupplied by Russian MoD.

Di source say dem fit no dey pay fighters again, and dem no go get political or military support, especially for African kontris like di CAR, Libya, Sudan and Mali.

Dis mean say di Wagner fighters wey dey deployed for Africa no go get work and go dey free to employ pipo wey dey dangerous for kontris wey dey face instabilty, civil wars and insurgencies.

Civillians plenti times na di victims of political power fights. And for kontris dem wia Wagner de currently operate internationally, dem go dey hope say dis kasala no go cause more brutality from di infamous Wagner group.

So wetin Wagner dey do for Africa and Syria? And wetin go happun for di kontris if dem dey disbanded and lose di support of di Russian Ministry of Defence?

LIBYA

Wagner units in Libya bin first appear for late 2019 wen dem join di army of di oga of di forces for Easter Libya Khalifa Haftar for im offensive to gbab di capital Tripoli wia di UN recognized goment bin dey stay.

Dem bin dey used as specialized fighting force to break di kontri defences afta dem bin block Hafta offensive.

Dia work for front line fighting, sniping and military intelligence gathering make difference on ground, and wit dia help Hafta forces move enta some Tripoli southern parts.

But dark side dey dia involvement too.

For 2021, BBC investigate and find evidence wey implicate some members of di group for di killing of civilians and di unlawful use of anti-personnel mines and booby traps for family houses for di Libyan capital Tripoli.

Di investigation bin also show how dem bin dey supplied wit weapons and equipment.

Secret internal documents wey di BBC collect for Tripoli show dia resupply acquisition list - show di list give Chis Cobb Smith wey be British military sabi pesin wey don work wit UN and dis na di assessment e make:

"Di weapons dey for di most part na 'state of di art', dat is to say dem dey up to date, technologically advanced and equiment wey di Russian military dey use.

Dis no only mean say dem get beta budget but also get authority to fit collect di latest sensitive and secret technology. E be like Wagner na little more dan unofficial element of di Russian military."

Tori also full ground say Wagner units for Libya dey get dia resupplies from di Russian Air DForce Antanoc aircraft wey dey normally fly between Russian controlled Latakia base for Syria and airbases for di east of Libya.

So clearly Wagner units for Libya dey rely well-well from support from di Russian Ministry of Defence, so to lose dat support go get major impact for dia presence and power for Libya.

Local sources for Libya don tell BBC say dem neva see noticeable change for ground around wia Wagner units dey stay since Saturday failed coup for Russia.

MALI AND CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

Russia Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov don give assurance say operations by military instructors go kontinu for Mali and di Central African Republic even afta Satuday coup attempt show how important di two kontris be to di Kremlin plan to expand for Africa.

For di short term, Prigozhin rebellion fit no get impact like dat on di 1,000 Wagner mercenaries wey don dey operate for Mali since late 2021 as di military junta bin invite dem.

Di work dey linked wit Russia growing diplomatic, security and economic interest for di kontri since di for now presido Col Assimi Goita seize power for August 2020.

Malian authorities don regularly deny say dem contract di Wagner group but dey hail di support from Russian military instructors.

Las-las Wagner presence make thousands of French and European forces wey don dey support di Malian army to fight against militants from di Islamic State and al-Qaeda groups since 2013, to quick comot.

Wagner deployment no really do much to improve di security situation.

Numbers from di Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (Acled Info) show say di militant violnence bin pass double between 2021 and 2022wia civilians na dem dey kill pass.

Operations wey di army do wit Wagner froup bin kill more civilians. One of di worse incidents na di killing of about 500 civilians for one week operation for di central town of Moura. Di UN bin link "foreign forces" and di Mali army to di killing, while US sanction two solders and di de facto commander of di Wagner Group for Mali.

At di same time, di war for Ukraine no too slow wetin Wagner dey do for Mali. Di mercenaries sharparly enta bases wey di French forces bin comot from for di northern towns of Gossi, Menaka and Gao.

Pro-junta civil society groups and social media users wey dey hail Wagner and Russian activities ask make di UN peacekeepers dey replaced with Russian forces.

On June 16, di way Mali dey kontinu to rely on Russian support show wella wen Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop ask make Minusma comot sharparly.

Jihadist groups fit take advantage of di possible security setbacks if wahala between di Kremlin and Wagner scata operations for Mali.

No official reaction from di CAR on di coup even though di konti don dey run plenti activities wit di Wagner group since late 2017.

One security cooperation agreement between Moscow and Bangui lead to di deployment of hundreds of Russian "military instructors" to fight against rebels wey don dey attack CAR for decades.

Overtime, Wagner Group expand go economic ventures, as dem allegedely start to dey sell conflict minerals and timber, and vodka sef.

Dia success against di Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) wey bin try mount insurrection against President Faustin Toudera for 2020 ginger public support.

Im goment over dependence for Wagner Group for bodyguards and di protection of key goment infrastructure dey give di mercenaries live to commit widespread atrocities against civilians for attacks against rebels.

Earlier dis year, US Treasury accuse di mercenaries say dem dey run serious criminal activities like "mass executions, rape, child abductions, and physical abuse for Central African Republic (CAR) and Mali".

Cracks for Wagner Group becos of Prigozhin mutiny dey increase di risk say dem go lose control of di beta and largely autonomous operations wey dem get for CAR. More fears dey say di mercenaries and di rebels go collabo mainly for di mineral rich parts of di kontri fit affect kontris like Chad and Sudan wey Wagner groups fit break enta.

But di collabo between oga Touadera goment and Moscow dey cancel di alarm say tensions between di Kremlin and Wagner fit scata security operations and fragile stability.

SYRIA

Wagner presence in Syria na anoda tori pata-pata.

Syria officially invite di Russian military come dia kontri for 2015 to helep dem ginger Syrian goment forces as at wen Syrian rebels bin dey control most of di kontri.

Di Russian intervention bin make differnece for di forces of di Syrian president Bashar al Assad wey now dey control most of di kontri. But e come for ogbonge cost as dem say Russian war planes na im kill tens of thousands of Syrians since 2015.

Latakia airbase for Syria dey officially for di hand of di Russian MoD, and dem dey use am take supply Wagner units for Africa.

Wagner units don dey Syria sice 2015. Dem dey mostly stationed for oilfields wia ISIS fighters dey know o dey operate.

Wagner chop accuse say dem commit one ogbonge war crime about two years afta dem dey deployed to Syria.

For 2017, some Wagner soldiers feem demselves as dem torture and kill one Syrian citizen before dem burn im deadbodi.

Di video leak go online and dem come see who commit am and even afta di victim relative file criminal complaint against six Wagner soldiers for Moscow, den no do anytin to dem, infact one collect medal of honour from Russia presido Vladmir Putin.

As Russia stay for Syria na official goment own, wetin dey happun wit Wagner and Kremlin for Russia no go fit really affect dia operations for Syria or dia support for di goment for Damascus.

But wetin go do Wagner fighters for Syria if di Russian Ministry of Defence disown dem na wetin plenti pipo around di world go dey chook eye put, as di Syrian civil war don get some of di world most powerful nations hand inside for both sides of di fight.