Invisible Losses: How many thousands wey dey fight for Russia dey die for Ukraine?

Dem don confam say ova 95,000 pipo wey dey fight for Russia military don die for di war for Ukraine as e enta di fourth year, according to data wey BBC analysed.

BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers bin dey count di deaths since February 2022.

Di list includes names of pipo wey die wey BBC verify using information from official reports, newspapers, social media and new memorials and graves.

Dem beliv say di real death toll high pass dis number well-well, since dis figure no include di pipo wey die wen dem bin dey serving di pro-Russian militia of di self-proclaimed Donbass republics, wey di BBC estimate to be between 21,000 and 23,500 fighters.

Drafted and disposable

Daniil Dudnikov, na 21-year-old history student for Donetsk National University, and im bin dey study international relations and like to swim.

On di first day of Russia full-scale invasion of Ukraine, on di 24th of February 2022, di authorities for di self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic mobilised Daniil by force, and send am to di Kharkiv region.

Just one month later, on 25 March, Daniil miss, dem bin no see am from im duty. Out of di 18 sojas for im unit, nobody return.

Dem kill 13 and capture five as prisoners. Four months later, sake of a prisoner exchange, di pipo wey survive confam say Daniil na one opf di 13 ey dem bin kill for di fight.

Di story of Daniil show thousands of oda residents from di self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, wey dem bin create in 2014 by Moscow-backed separatists for di place wey dem dey mostly speak Russia for parts of eastern Ukraine.

Wit di full-scale Russian invasion for 2022, dem bin draft plenti civilian men, wey no even get beta training and wit poor equipment dem assign dem to near-impossible missions.

Dis lead to a staggering number of dead and missing sojas, di fate of many of dem dey most times remain unknown for months or years.

According to our analysis of obituaries wey dem bin publish and missing reports of pipo wey dey miss from di regions, di majority of deaths for di Donbass militias happun during di first year of di invasion, a toll comparable to di total number of pipo wey die for di Russian military during di same period - 25,769 deaths.

Yet despite many pipo for di occupied parts of eastern Ukraine wey get relatives or friends for Russia, dem dey far less integrated into di evriday life of di kontri, wey make dia losses less "visible" to ordinary Russians.

Criminals for battlefield

Anoda large part of di Russian losses na convicts wey dey bin recruit for prisons.

Ildus Sadykov bin dey 59 years wen dem bin arrest am say im tiff one bag for di railway station in Moscow.

Na di fourth time im dey go jail, and na a total of 16 years im don spend behind bars for different criminal convictions.

"Dem bin tell me, 'If you no wan go back to prison, sign di contract.' Dem bin assure me say for my age, dem no go send me go di front, dem go just assign me to one auxiliary role.

Well, I agree to am," im remember, im dey tok as a prisoner of war afta Ukrainian forces capture am for di summer of 2024.

Afta a prisoner exchange, dem send am back to Russia, wia dem send am back to di frontlines again.

For February 2025, dem kill Sadykov for combat.

Currently, di BBC Russian database of war casualties include 16,171 convicted criminals wey dem bin recruit from penal colonies to fight.

Dis na just di cases wey we fit verify criminal records thru open sources. Di actual number of deceased convicts fit dey higher.

By adding some analysis of leaked documents from di Wagner Group private military company, we fit estimate say prisoners fit make up as much as a third of Russia military deaths ova di three years of di invasion.

Many of dis pipo bin dey live for correctional facilities, wey dem effectively cut off from broader society, for years on end.

War wey only few pipo dey see

"Na a segment of Russian society wey get fewer resources dey feel di losses di most, weda na educational, financial or political," na wetin Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, director of di Russia Institute for King's College London.

"E be like say di Kremlin design am like dis, as dem dey make sure say di most privileged sections of society remain largely disconnected from di war. But dem dey recruit prisoners and foreign mercenaries."

"For small towns, pipo dey far more aware of di scale of casualties. Di war don hit social groups wey no get di means to protest but even to express dia views openly. Discussions dey restricted to private conversations," she add.

Only 30% of Russians bin don get direct exposure to di war, either as dem dey fighting inside or thru family connections to combatants.

According to one public opinion poll from di Chronicles research project for September 2024, one survey wey di Russian opposition politician Aleksei Miniailo bin open.

Di proportion of Ukrainians wey know somebody wey dem bin kill or wound na almost 80%.

Measuring genuine support for di war for Russia dey difficult, since many respondents dey fear to honestly tok dia mind.

But one study wey di PROPA project bin commissioned, wey dey supported by di University of Helsinki, bin find out say 43% of surveyed Russians openly support di invasion.

"Public attitudes towards di war fit dey different if more pipo personally know di pipo wey die?" na wetin one leading Russian sociologist Viktor Vakhshtayn ask "Without a doubt."

Counting di dead

Russia actual losses dey almost certainly substantially higher dan open-source data fit reveal.

Di military analysts wey we bin consult estimate say di BBC research probably capture only 45% to 65% of total casualties.

Dem add am to di bodies of many of di pipo wey dem kill in recent months wey likely remain on di battlefield, since e go require living sojas to risk exposure to drone strikes.

Wit dis estimate above, di true number of Russian military deaths fit range from 146,194 to 211,169.

If pesin add di estimated losses from di Donetsk People's Republic (DPR) and di Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) forces for di Donbass region, di total number of Russian-aligned fatalities fit range from 167,194 to 234,669.

Russia last officially report about dia military losses for September 2022, and dem bin cite fewer dan 6,000 deaths.

Ukraine bin update dia casualty figures last for December 2024, wen President Volodymyr Zelensky bin acknowledge 43,000 Ukrainian deaths among sojas and officers.

Western analysts beliv say dis figure na an under-estimate.

Di website Ukraine Losses, wey dey compile casualty data from open sources, currently lists more dan 70,400 surnames of Ukrainian sojas.

Our verification of one random sample of 400 of dem show say di database dey reliable.

DiUkrainian casualty list dey likely more complete dan di Russian equivalent, as Ukrainian presidential decrees on posthumous military awards still dey publicly accessible. For Russia such data dey classified (secret).

As di war dey enta di fourth year, global attention don shift to di new US administration wey dey push for peace negotiations.

We go kontinu to monitor activity for Russian military cemeteries and war memorials, and analyse obituaries, wey don increase sharply in number since September last year.