Are you going to be £1000 better off by the next election?published at 14:30 GMT

14:30 GMT

By Anthony Reuben

One of the chancellor’s more eye-catching claims was: “By the next election, after accounting for inflation, people are forecast to be £1000 better off per year.”

That sounds good, but you’ve already benefited from most of that.

She’s talking about a measure called Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) per person. The Office for Budget Responsibility said today, external that measure had grown strongly in 2024-5 (broadly the first year after the general election). It has grew by 3.1%.

In 2025-26, RHDI per person is expected to grow by much less - only 0.1% - and then average 0.5% growth a year until 2029, when the next election is likely to happen.

The OBR says RHDI per person was £25,500 in 2023-24 and it does indeed predict that it will be a bit more than £1000 higher than that by the time of the next election, but you've already had most of that increase.

Normally forecasts would be a sign of future interest rate cuts, but now it's far more uncertainpublished at 14:27 GMT

14:27 GMT

Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

On the face of it, the latest forecasts would be welcome news for households in terms of the supermarket shop, prices and the cost of living.

The rate of inflation was expected to hit the target level of 2% later this year. This is a far cry from the peak in October 2022 when prices were rising at a rate of 11.1% a year.

Normally that would heighten expectations of interest rate cuts, making borrowing money cheaper (although returns on savings would be lower too).

However, all those forecasts are now far more uncertain – potentially even redundant – if the impact of the US-Israel war with Iran lasts for some time.

Katie Williams
Live reporter

Today's OBR forecast touches on many different parts of the economy - including house prices.

They are expected to rise by just over 2.5% over the rest of the forecast period, which covers the five years to 2030-31, the OBR says.

This is "broadly in line with growth in average incomes", it says.

For those trying to get on the housing ladder, it means prices shouldn't race ahead of your wage growth.

It is worth noting though that the housing market can vary significantly from one part of the country to another.

To help put this into context, data from HM Land Registry, external shows average London house prices fell by 1% in the year to December 2025, while average prices in Northern Ireland increased by 7.5%.

Image source, House of Commons

Green MP Sian Berry says the result of last week's Gorton and Denton by-election - which her party won, with the seat having previously been held by Labour - shows that voters want bolder action against sky-high bills and rent.

Berry asks Reeves whether she will scrap her "dysfunctional" fiscal rules, as well as getting rid of the family benefit cap, which she says is preventing over 200,000 children from escaping "needless grinding hardship".

In response, Reeves says she believes in fair taxes and that the wealthy should pay their fair share - but in a credible way that delivers for constituents.

Back in the Commons, MPs are still to responding to the chancellor's Spring Statement - you can watch live at the top of the page.

Reform UK's economic spokesman Robert Jenrick says Rachel Reeves is "like a rogue landlord who keeps squeezing the tenant with higher and higher rent. All the while, the property is going to wrack and ruin".

She should go out and speak to people who are worried about their bills, he says.

Jenrick then mentions a planned easing of fuel duty cuts, and pushes Reeves if she will give relief to the "hard working" people who drive to work.

Reeves responds by saying Jenrick's former party - the Conservatives, which he defected from in January - was planning to get rid of fuel duty support when Jenrick was still in the party.

Come the next Budget, there could be need for more tax or spending changespublished at 14:00 GMT

14:00 GMT

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

Safe - but for how long?

Relief for the chancellor as the official forecasts deem she's still on track to meet her main target for the public finances, with a slightly larger amount left to spare than previously thought.

The impact of weaker than expected growth on the public finance forecasts has been more than balanced out by lower borrowing costs, higher share prices and a bigger tax take.

But at just shy of £24bn, that safety margin, the amount by which her revenues are expected to exceed day-to-day public spending in a few years time, remains smaller than the historical average.

And the OBR were mindful of the tension in the Middle East building as it put the finishing touches on its predictions. That has since exploded - investors may have been watching the gyrations of energy markets more closely than the chancellor.

It is highly uncertain how long the volatility in energy prices will last. But if sustained, economists are already speculating that the chancellor will, at the least, struggle to end the freeze on fuel duty come the Budget.

Add in the risks of higher inflation, interest rates and dent to activity and that margin, the headroom could be wiped out.

That may not happen - but as the OBR flags, there are other risks this year alone - pressures to bump up defence and health spending, the cost of housing migrants.

The OBR is paid to be cautious. But it means that, come the autumn Budget, there could still be a need for tax or spending changes - if the sums on the public finances are to add up.

Rachel Clun
Business reporter

Less than one hour ago, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)'s latest forecasts for the UK economy were published.

It’s important to note that these forecasts were finalised before the US-Israeli war with Iran began.

Here are the key figures:

• The economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2026, down from the 1.4% originally forecast in November
• Inflation is forecast to fall faster than previously thought, reaching 2.3% during 2026 before reaching the Bank of England's target of 2% by the end of the year
• Unemployment is expected to now peak at 5.3%, up from a 4.9% peak forecast at the Budget
• And the government’s fiscal headroom - its buffer in the case of economic shocks - has risen, from £21.7bn to £23.6bn

What does the unemployment forecast mean if you're looking for work?published at 13:34 GMT

13:34 GMT

Rachel Clun
Business reporter

The OBR has updated its forecast for unemployment, and it now expects the unemployment rate - that is the number of people out of work but actively looking for a job - to rise to 5.3% this year.

It means that things are going to get a bit worse for jobhunters before they get better.

The OBR also noted in its updated forecasts that one of the key issues in the jobs market was “entrants into the labour force struggling to find work amid subdued hiring demand”.

That is, people trying to get a job for the first time are having difficulty finding employment.

The Bank of England has previously predicted the unemployment rate will reach a peak by the middle of the year.

For some light at the end of the tunnel, it should start falling slowly after that.

Fact-checking Reeves’s inflation claimpublished at 13:31 GMT

13:31 GMT

By Tom Edgington, BBC Verify

Setting out Labour’s economic record, Rachel Reeves said “inflation has fallen”.

Whether that is correct depends on the time frame being used.

The latest official figures show inflation stood at 3% in the 12 months to January 2026. That is down from 3.4% in December., external

However, inflation is still higher today compared to when Labour took power. In June 2024 - the final month before the change in government - inflation was running at 2%.

That 2% figure is also the Bank of England’s target rate, which is intended to keep price rises low and stable.

Daisy Cooper, from the Liberal Democrats, is next to speak

She says her party are "pleading" with the chancellor to "put a laser-like focus on getting a better trade and defence deal with Europe".

The chancellor "could have" used today's speech to announce the government's intention to negotiate a new EU-UK customs union to "kick start growth", she argues.

The OBR projections will "soon be out of date", Cooper says, adding that she believes US President Donald Trump's actions in Iran will be felt in "people's pockets right here in Britain".

She also requests the government reform the student loan system, as graduates are currently being "ripped off"

Chancellor Rachel Reeves returns to the despatch box smiling, and says that today's performance is "yet another reminder of how irrelevant the Conservative Party now is".

She says Stride and Tory leader Kemi Badenoch have been wrong about the economy "time and time again".

The chancellor admits that more needs to be done on youth unemployment, but blames the Tories for slashing the numbers of young people in apprenticeships.

"They are the arsonists, not the fire brigade," she says. "They gave us 14 years of barely-managed decline and we are fixing it."

Shadow chancellor Mel Stride says that Rachel Reeves "is fond of saying she is simply asking people to pay a little more" when it comes to tax.

He tells the Commons the government's tax policy means staff are being laid off and people are leaving the UK for other countries.

There have been "almost 100,000 job losses" in the hospitality sector since the government came to office, Stride says.

The shadow chancellor says while Reeves says today that her plan is working, in reality inflation, borrowing, spending, taxation, welfare and employment are all up.

The chancellor's plan "is not working", Stride says.

Image source, House of Commons

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projects that inflation will fall from 3.4% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026, and then again to 2% from 2027 onwards.

The OBR forecast that the 2% target for the UK inflation rate will be met in "late 2026".

This would mean the UK meets its target sooner than originally predicted following the November Budget - where the OBR had forecast a rate of 2.5% in 2026, then 2% in the following three years after that.

According to the latest figures, inflation fell to 3% in January, down from 3.4% in December.

As a reminder, this forecast was produced before the outbreak of the US-Israeli war with Iran.

As we've been reporting, the OBR's forecast does not take into account any potential impact from the jump in energy prices triggered by the conflict in the Middle East.

In its release, the OBR includes comments to that effect.

The organisation says its forecast "lies in the middle of a wide range of possible outcomes", with "significant risks around it".

"Conflict in the Middle East, which escalated as we were finalising this document, could have very significant impacts on the global and UK economies," it says.

Rachel Clun
Business reporter

The OBR has increased its forecast for unemployment, now expecting it to peak at 5.3% this year.

In November, the OBR forecast unemployment would peak at 4.9%, but the Bank of England’s more recent February forecast had unemployment reaching 5.3% by the middle of this year.

As a reminder, unemployment reached 5.2% in the three months to December, a five-year high.

After peaking this year, the OBR expects unemployment to fall gradually to 4.1% by 2030.

While we look through the OBR's forecast, back in the Commons shadow chancellor Mel Stride is responding to Reeves' statement.

"Is that it?" he asks, accusing the chancellor of coming to the Commons with "nothing to say" and "no plan".

He says this is "not a Spring Statement" but a "surrender statement", and says Reeves knows government borrowing is nearly double what was forecast at the time of the general election.

Stride then lists a number of government u-turns, as other MPs join in.

It's a noisy chamber - Speaker Lindsay Hoyle has to interject four times to ask for quiet as Stride responds to Reeves.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)'s forecast of the state of the UK's economy has just been published.

We're poring over the document now, external - and will bring you the key lines here.

The OBR is the independent watchdog that analyses the state of the country's finances

More headroom than previously predicted, but still plenty of risks aroundpublished at 13:03 GMT

13:03 GMT

Dharshini David
Deputy economics editor

The chancellor confirms she's forecast to meet her main borrowing target, in 2029/2030, with over £23bn to spare.

That's a bigger margin than predicted in the November Budget, thanks to lower borrowing costs - but still smaller than the average so-called headroom of previous chancellors.

And the market gyrations of the past few days are a reminder of how quickly such headroom can be eaten up - as the chancellor acknowledged.

She may get lucky, a prolonged energy crisis averted.

But there are always plenty of other risks around - hence the need for safety margins

The chancellor says she came into politics because she "believed in a government that stands up for working people".

When governments "lose control of the economy, as the Tories did, it is working people who pay the price", she says.

Taking aim at the previous Conservative governments, she says: "Five prime ministers, seven Chancellors, 11 plans for growth."

Their "legacy", she says, was leaving living standards "worse at the end than they were at the start".

On the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast, she says it shows they are set to reduce borrowing by nearly £18bn compared to the autumn.

Image source, House of Commons

Just before that announcement, Reeves said she accepts that an economy cannot be working if it is only delivering for a few people in a few places.

But she says that today's OBR forecast will show the government's choices "are starting to pay off".

In two weeks time, the chancellor says she will set out "three major choices that will determine the course of our economy into the future".

She says this will include strengthening global relationships, breaking down trade barriers, and harnessing the power of AI.

These steps, Reeves says, will spread opportunity around every part of the UK.