Albertans likely to reject independence, but separatists declare victory of their ownpublished at 10:38 BST

10:38 BST

Lyse Doucet
Chief international correspondent

Although votes are still being counted, it seems clear the remain in Canada camp has won a resounding victory.

But the separatist camp is declaring a victory of its own.

“We’ve started something and we are not going to stop,” is still their rallying cry.

They’ve gone from a fringe movement to being on the ballot and will continue to argue that their demands can only be met if Alberta is independent.

Even Albertans who told me they would vote to remain say they can’t continue to subsidise the rest of Canada with their oil wealth, without their own grievances including immigration and provincial powers being addressed.

Alberta is not alone on that. The rising cost of living and a housing crisis are biting across this country.

Canada confronts the same economic and social problems facing nations the world over – but it’s also in a trade war with the US, its biggest partner, which, if not resolved, will keep intensifying that pain.

Image source, Getty Images

As we wait for the preliminary results, here's a quick breakdown of the votes counted so far, as of the early hours of Tuesday.

According to Alberta officials, there have been more than 5.5 million valid votes cast across the 10 questions.

• 57% of vote has beenreported - these are split into votes cast on election day, advance voting, mobile and special ballot votes
• Election day counts for 27.9% of the total vote, with over 1.4 million total votes counted so far
• Advance votes make up 59.62% of the vote so far, with 3.1 million valid votes
• 1.75% of the vote was made by mobile, where there have been 94,357 valid votes
• And special ballot votes make up 10.64% of the vote - 573,777

For context:Election day voters may only vote at their assigned voting place on election day, while advance voting took place between Tuesday and Saturday for those who could not attend their assigned voting place on election day. Electors who are unable to vote in person may vote by mail by applying for a special ballot.

Image source, Reuters

As we have been reporting, Albertans have been voting on ten issues.

This includes a vote on whether they want a legally binding referendum on gaining independence from Canada, along with questions on immigration to Alberta, access to social services and voter ID.

According to Alberta officials, there have been more than 5.5 million valid votes cast across the 10 questions.

As detailed below, early results indicated around a quarter of voters wanted an independence referendum, while three-quarters did not.

These figures are regularly updating, and could change as the count goes on.

It is now 02:15 local time (04:15 EST/09:15 BST), here's a look at what the early results have been indicating as of the last half hour:

• Referendum: Should Alberta remain a province of Canada? Option one (remain) 1,107,558, option 2 346,261

• Do you support the government of Alberta taking increased control of immigration? Yes, 405,648, no 299,946
• Do you support a law saying only Canadian citizens being eligible for certain social services? Yes 399, 675, No 267,770
• Do you support a law saying all people with non permanent legal immigration have to have lived in Alberta for at least a year before qualifying for province funded social support programs? Yes 282,373, No 210,102
• Do you support the government of Alberta charging those with non-permanent immigration status in the province for use of health and eucation systems? Yes 223,342, No 168,873
• Do you support introducing voter ID for Alberta elections? Yes 202,367, No 130, 494
• Do you support the Alberta government working with other provinces to make amendments to the Canadian constitution? Yes, 141, 296, No 137,697
• Do you support the Alberta government in working with other willing provinces to amend Canada's constitution to abolish the unelected federal senate? Yes 120,311, No, 106, 538
• Do you support the Alberta government working with other provinces to allow provinces to opt out of federal programs? Yes 117,128, No, 123,052
• Do you support the Alberta government working with other willing provinces to amend the constitution to better protect provincial rights from federal interference? Yes 119,149, No 116,141

As a reminder, we will get the preliminary results on if there will be a legally binding referendum on Albertan independence later today, but the official results will not be known until Thursday.

Image source, Reuters

If you’re just joining us, here’s what you might have missed:

• It’s just after 02:00 in Alberta and voters have rejected a proposal to begin the sepatation process from Canada, early projections suggest

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says Albertans have made "a clear choice" to reject a referendum on independence and “above all…chose Canada”
• Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, meanwhile, says she is pleased with the initial results and praises voters for choosing a “stronger Alberta in a united Canada” on X

• One of the leaders of the separatist movement in the province, Jeffrey Rath, remains defiant and tells the BBC "we have a long way to go" before the full picture is known of how Albertans voted
• When asked whether his movement would push to keep holding votes on independence until it got the result it wanted, Rath responds: "Why not?"
• As a reminder, the question on leaving Canada is just one of 10 issues Albertans have been voting on

Early results are continuing to come in.

Those for and against Alberta's independence from Canada have been gathering to watch the results come in together.

Here are some of the latest pictures:

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Getty Images

One of the leaders of the Alberta separatist movement has struck a defiant tone, vowing that "our movement isn't stopping and we're continuing to move forward".

The results so far are only projections and "we have a long way to go" before the full picture is known of how Albertans voted on Monday, cautions Jeffrey Rath, a lawyer based in Calgary.

Speaking to the BBC World Service's Newsday programme, Rath says he sees Monday's vote as a "first step" which has taught the movement some "valuable lessons".

He predicts that hundreds of thousands of fellow residents of the province backed independence, and insists that "the math and the economics" all add up on his side of the argument.

Challenged on whether his movement would push to keep holding votes on independence until it got the result it wanted, he responds: "Why not?"

Image source, Reuters

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she is very pleased that initial results show "widespread support for remaining in Canada."

"Albertans have voted for a stronger Alberta in a united Canada," she writes in a post on X.

The United Conservative Party leader thanks "Albertans who took time to vote on these critically important referendum questions", before saying she will make an address on Tuesday evening on the results and where the province goes next.

Albertans appear to have rejected referendum on independencepublished at 07:40 BST

07:40 BST

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Alberta

It turns out that the polling was accurate after all: the majority of Albertans want their province to stay in Canada.

Albertans appear to have rejected opening the conversation of separation and having a binding referendum on independence down the line.

Premier Danielle Smith said before the vote that if this is the outcome, a referendum on separation will not be held – at least, not while she is in power.

But that doesn’t mean that the conversation around Albertan sovereignty is over.

Leaders of the separatist movement have indicated they plan to push Smith out of power within her United Conservative Party, with hopes of installing a leader who is more sympathetic to their cause.

It’s unclear if they have the numbers on their side to do that, but debate around the issue could dominate politics in Alberta for years to come.

• As a reminder, we are expecting the first preliminary results in the coming hours.

Image source, Reuters

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney says Abertans have made "a clear choice" to reject a referendum on independence, early projections suggest. Here is his statement in full:

“On October 19, Albertans made a clear choice. They chose unity, to build together, and to take care of each other.

Above all, Albertans chose Canada.

While votes on all questions continue to be tallied, tonight’s results on the defining question of separation mean that Albertans and all Canadians will move forward together with renewed purpose and high ambition.

We are building that future, bigger and faster than ever before. Canada is securing new trade partners around the world, fast-tracking major, nation-building projects in every part of the country, and unleashing our full potential as a global energy superpower with Alberta at its core.

Canada is so much greater than the sum of its parts. Now it is our opportunity to take all that we have been given as Canadians – and we have been given the greatest country in the world – and make our country better for all of us.”

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Alberta

I'm at a pro-independence watch party that's just packing up around me. People are going home, there's a sense that the party's over.

There was a lot of upbeat chatter earlier here, but the hum of that quickly quieted down when it became apparent - now that some of the early results are coming out - that Albertans overwhelmingly voted against holding a referendum to separate.

Image source, Reuters

The western Canadian province of Alberta has been voting on whether to remain part of Canada, or begin the process of holding a binding referendum on separation.

The question voters answered wasn't a simple "stay" or "leave".

Instead, voters have been asked: "Should Alberta remain a province of Canada or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?"

There were two options on the ballot paper: Option A - remain in Canada and Option B - start the process to hold a referendum.

The other nine questions did require a yes or no answer. Five dealt with immigration, while the other four focused on the Canadian constitution.

Among other things, voters have been asked whether they support giving Alberta’s provincial government greater authority to restrict immigration to the province, limit access to certain social services and introduce legislation that requires certain additional forms of identification to vote.

Here's a recap of what's happened so far, with polls indicating the majority of people in the province will vote to remain in Canada.

Voters in Alberta have rejected a proposal to hold a binding referendum on whether to begin the process of separating from Canada, according to Canada's national public broadcaster CBC News.

As a reminder, we are expecting the first preliminary results in the coming hours.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Alberta

The first batch of results have just come in, and they don’t look good for the Albertans who want separation.

At the pro-separatist watch party here in Edmonton, the hum of upbeat chatter quickly quieted as attendees saw preliminary results so far show 76.5% voting to remain in Canada, and 23.5% voting to hold an independence referendum.

“Liberal lies!” yelled one woman at the TV displaying the CBC broadcast of the result, telling others “please don’t worry.”

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

If you're just joining us, here's what to know:

• It's 23:00 local time in Alberta and polls have just closed. We expect to have results start to trickle in shortly
• Albertans have voted on whether to remain in Canada or hold a binding referendum on independence
• Supporters of separation in traditionally the conservative province are motivated by frustration with Ottawa and the Liberal government of Prime Minister Mark Carney. Some told the BBC earlier today that they want an independent Alberta, while others said they are voting in hopes of having some of their frustrations addressed by Ottawa
• Mitch Sylvestre, a leader of the separatist movement, told the BBC that "a lot of work will have to be done" to curb the appetite for independence, even if his side loses
• Pro-Canada Albertans have told the BBC at polling stations that they are motivated to keep the country united. Some say they worry that an independent Alberta would be vulnerable to outside influence, including from the United States
• Polls indicate the majority of Albertans will vote to remain in Canada, but both sides are anxious to see if results will reflect that

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Polls across Alberta have closed, and now the focus will be on watching the results.

Stick with us as we bring you the numbers and developments as they come through.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

I just spoke with Mitch Sylvestre, one of the lead organisers of the group that was responsible for the citizen-led petition that called for a referendum on independence.

He tells me he thinks the numbers will be stronger than what polling suggests. Polls indicate that a majority of Albertans want to stay in Canada, and will reject having a binding referendum on separation.

"I'm from rural Alberta, and in rural Alberta the conversation is more towards independence," Sylvestre told me.

Asked what would happen to his movement if they lose by a wide margin tonight, Sylvestre said they would "have to re-evaluate", but he does not appear to be worried.

"There's going to have to be a lot of work done on both sides to stop the [independence] conversation," he said, adding that he believes Alberta "has been abused for 10 years" by the Liberal government in Ottawa

Image source, Boris Spremo/Toronto Star via Getty Images

Canada has grappled with threats to its unity before, including with occasional violence.

The province of Quebec held two referendums on independence, in 1980 and 1995. Both were unsuccessful, though the second one was a nail-biter - the "No" side won, squeaking by with just 50.58% of the vote.

Alberta independence supporters don't hide the fact that they gain inspiration from the majority French-speaking province.

They view Quebec as having successfully used the threat of separation to gain significant political leverage over Ottawa, and more autonomy over provincial affairs.

The movement shaped Canadian political debates for decades and 20 years ago, Parliament passed a motion officially recognising that the Québécois form a nation within a united Canada, for the preservation of their unique language and culture within the country.

And despite support for Quebec sovereignty being at historic lows, a newly elected provincial government has pledged to hold a third referendum on independence by 2030.

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Just a kilometre away from the pro-Canada watch party in Edmonton is another held by supporters of separatism.

The feeling in the room is different — it's at a local Italian restaurant where dozens of people are already here drinking and socialising.

Some of them are familiar faces from a pro-independence rally we attended a few days ago.

One supporter tells me that the room feels "hopeful" and that he predicts the majority in the province will vote to hold a referendum on separation.

Polls are set to close in less than an hour, after which we should start to see some results trickle in.

Image source, BBC/Eloise Alanna

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

Three volunteers at the pro-Canada watch party tell us that they have been handing out lawn signs and getting petition signatures for the last 18 months across the province.

They describe the debate over Alberta's future as "divisive" and "ugly".

"You're not talking to people that you've talked to all your life," says Clara Hosler.

Linda Lukawesky, another volunteer, says that she and other campaigners have also been met with hostility on the road by those on the pro-independence side.

Despite these encounters, both say they are confident their side will get a majority tonight.

"I have no worries," says Hosler.

But Teressa Gold, another volunteer, says she's anxious about whether the result will be enough to shut down the debate on separation.

"We have to show that we’re strong," she says.

Image source, BBC/Eloise Alanna

Nadine Yousif
Reporting from Edmonton, Alberta

We've just arrived at a watch party held by the main campaign for the remain side, Forever Canadian at the Polish Hall near downtown Edmonton.

Polls were supposed to close at 20:00 local time, but are staying open longer at some locations due to a late start.

Because of this, we won't expect any results on the referendum to be released until after the count starts about 21:00 local time (23:00 EDT/04:00 BST).

The party is also likely to start a bit late here, with only a dozen or so volunteers here so far. The crowd is expected to grow throughout the evening.

Stay with us as we bring you the latest.

Image source, BBC/Eloise Alanna