'Ko an kashe wani akwai wani': Yadda Iran ta gina tsarin shugabacinta

Sama da shekaru 40 kenan da aka kafa gwamnatin jamhuriyar musulunci a Iran bayan juyin juya halin da aka yi a shekarar 1979.

Iran na cikin wani yanayi da ta jima ba ta ga irinsa ba.

Hare-haren da Amurka da Isra'ila suka kai kan Iran ya kashe jagoran addinin ƙasar Ayatollah Ali Khamenei da wasu manyan kwamandojin soji tare da lalata wasu muhimman wurare.

Amurka da Isra'ila sun bayyana cewa suna fatan ganin an samu sauyin gwamnati a Iran, inda suke kira ga 'yan ƙasar su kifar da ita.

Sai dai masana sun ce Iran ta kafa wani tsarin gwamnati wanda zai yi wuya a iya kifar da shi.

Shin me ya bambanta tsarin da Iran ta kafa da sauran ƙasashen Gabas ta Tsakiya?

Yadda tsarin yake

Masana sun ce tun bayan da Iran ta daina amfani da salon mulkin sarauta, jamhuriyar musuluncin ta gina wani tsarin da zai iya kawar da duk wata barazana.

Matakan sun haɗa da yadda ake gudanar da hukumomin gwamnati, tsara manufofinta, da kuma dakushe adawa.

"Wani irin tsari ne suke amfani da shi ta yadda ko da an kashe wani, akwai wasu da za su ci gaba da gudanar da al'amura," in ji Sébastien Boussois, wani mai bincike kan yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya.

A ranar Lahadi ne aka naɗa ɗan marigayi Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei a matsayin sabon jagoran addinin Iran.

Ana da yaƙinin zai ɗora daga inda mahaifinsa ya tsaya.

Gwamnatin haɗaka

Saɓanin wasu ƙasashe irinsu Tunisia, Masar da Syria da aka hamɓarar da gwamnatocinsu, masana na ganin Iran ta tsallake duk wata barazana daga ƙetare, saboda tsarin da take bi na tsaro.

Sai dai a madadin ta yi gwamnatin kama karya, da ke ƙarƙashin mutum ɗaya, Iran na yin gwamnati ta haɗin gwiwa, ta yadda ake gudanar da mulki tsakanin haɗakar magoya bayan siyasar musulunci da kuma masu ra'ayin ci gaban ƙasa," in ji Bernard Hourcade, tsohon daraktan cibiyar nazari ta Faransa ta Iran da ke Tehran.

Ana raba madafun iko ne ga mutane daban-daban, ciki har da malamai, dakarun soji, da masana tattalin arziki, lamarin da ya sa tsarin ya zama mai matuƙar wahala a iya kifar da gwamnatin Iran ɗin.

Wasu masu riƙe da madafun iko su ne majalisar magabata, waɗanda suke tantance ƴanmajalisar ƙasar da masu son yin takara.

Wannan ya rage girman barazanar wani tsagi ya yi yunƙurin kawo tsaiko ga gwmnatin ƙasar.

Sai dai yayin da ake yiwa Iran kallon gwamnatin kama karya, gwamnatin tana ba 'yan ƙasar damar fafatawa a wasu zaɓuka.

Amma ana sanya ido sosai a kan tsarin, inda majalisar magabata ke tantance ƴantakarar cikin har da manufarsu kan jamhuriyar musuluncin.

Rawar da dakarun IRGC suke takawa

Rundunar juyin juya halin musulunci (IRGC), na aiki ne a matsayin sojojin ƙasar, kuma ana ganinsu a matsayin ƙashin bayan gwamnatin, in ji Hourcade.

Baya ga aikin soji da rundunar take yi, tana taka rawa wajen daidaita siyasar ƙasar da yanayin tattalin arziki da kasuwanci, kuma tana da alaƙa da mayaƙan ƙungiyar Basij.

"Wannan ɗabi'ar ta biyayya da ke jinin mabiya aƙidar Shia, da kuma ƙungiyoyi irinsu Hamas da Hezbollah na daga cikin ayyukansu," in ji shi.

Mataimakin ministan tsaro na Iran, Reza Talaeinik, ya ce duk wani kwamandan rundunar IRGC yana da magada har guda uku domin tabbatar da an ci gaba jagoranci.

Kasra Aarabi, shugaban sashen bincike na dakatar da shirin makamin nukiliyar Iran ya ce ƙasar ta Iran ta koyi darasi daga farmakin da Iraqi ta kai mata a shekarar 2003 da Amurka ta jagoranta.

Idan har gwamnatin ta ɗore, yana da amannar cewa "Rundunar za ta fi taka rawa sosai".

Manufar gwamnati da juyin juya hali

Addini na taka rawa sosai wajen ci gaba da mulkin ƙasar.

Juyin juya halin ya haifar da tsohon tsari da ya shafi addini, siyasa da ilimi yana tasiri kan salonsu a idon duniya.

"Wannan daɗaɗɗen tsarin na shugabanci, ya sa gwamnatinsu ta samu ƙarfin iko," in ji Boussois.

Ya ce manufar gwamnatin yana "ƙara haɗin kai" a ƙasar.

Rabuwar kan 'yan adawa

A tarihin Iran, 'yan adawar ƙasar ba su da wani kataɓus.

Wannan tsarin ya daɗe, in ji Ellie Geranmayeh, ƙwararriya a cibiyar nazarin tarayyar turai da ƙasashen ƙetare a Birtaniya.

Bayan juyin juya hali, an daɗe ana tattaunawa kan samar da jam'iyyun adawa, amma ba a samu nasara ba.

Geranmayeh ta ce akwai masu ɓangarori da dama da suke ganin an ware su ko an jefa su kurkuku.

An sha gudanar da zanga-zaga a shekaru da dama a Iran domin nuna adawa da gwamnatin ƙasar, irinsu gangamin Green Movement da aka yi a shekarar 2009 da kuma zanga-zangar mutuwar Mahsa Amini a shekarar 2022.

Sai dai irin waɗannan zanga-zangar sun samu koma baya ne sakamkon babu kyakkyawan tsari da jagoranci.

Iran kuma yana amfani da matakan tsaro masu ƙarfi a yankin, da kuma yawan katse intanet da ake yi da kuma bibiyar abubuwan da 'yan ƙasar ke aikatawa har a ƙasashen ƙetare.

Mutane na taka tsan-tsan

Geranmayeh ta ce shekaru da dama Iraniyawa na hanƙoron sauya gwmanati kamar yadda aka yi a Afghanistan da Iraƙi, amma kuma abin da ya biyo bayan hakan ya sa suke suke taka tsan-tsan.

Sai dai ta ce wannan tunanin ya sauya, inda yawancin Iraniyawa ke tunanin cewa ƙasar ba ta da niyyar samar da ababen more rayuwa, da ayyukan yi da ruwan sha.

Murƙushe 'yan adawa da aka masu zanga-zanga da aka yi a watan Junairu, inda aka kashe dubban mutane a wani gangami da ba a taɓa ganin irinsa ba a ƙasar.

Yawancin matasan Iraniyawa, waɗanda suka yi karatu kuma suka shiga duniya kuma suna amfani da shafukan sada zumunta, suna adawa a gwamnatin, inda suke kallonta a matsayin wadda cin hanci da dabaibaye ta.

'Kowace gwamnati tana da ƙarshe'

Masu sharhi sun ce duk gwamnatin da ke salon kama karya ba ta daɗewa a kan mulki saboda dalilai uku: Wayar da kan jama'a, rabuwar kawunan shugabanni da kuma ɓallewar jami'an tsaro.

Hourcade ya yi amannar cewa ganin bayan jamhuriyar musulunci ba abu ne mai sauki ba amma haka na iya faruwa.

"Kowace gwamnati za ta zo ƙarshe. Sai dai ba a san yaushe ba."

Ya ce kisan Khamenei ba ƙaramin giɓi ba ne ga gwamnatin.

"Ba za a iya samun wani irinsa ba. Wanda zai maye gurbinsa ba lallai ya samu ƙarfin iko irin na Khamenei ba."

Amma Boussois na ganin kifar da gwamnatin jamhuriyar musulunci ba abu ne mai sauƙi ba.

Ya ce idan har aka samu nasarar hakan da taimakon sojojin ƙasashen waje, to abin da zai biyo baya sai ya fi muni.

Trump ya faɗa wa jaridar New York Times a baya cewa kama shugaban Venezuela Nicolás Maduro Amurka ta yi zai fi dacewa da Iran.