Umubano ‘w’urukundo’ wa Trump na Xi warazambye. Ese bashobora kuwuzahura?

Muri parike y’imikino iruhande rw’inkuta z’umutuku n’amakaro ashashagirana y’ubururu zizengurutse urusengero rwitwa Temple of Heaven ruri i Beijing, hari itsinda ry’abageze mu zabukuru bari gukora imyitozo ngororamubiri.

“Mfite imyaka 74 kandi ndizera ko ibi bizamfasha kubaho igihe kirekire,” uko ni ko umugabo umwe avuga nyuma yo kurangiza gukora pompaje, mu gihe akayaga gakonje gahuha ibibabi by’ibiti muri parike, bikanaburizamo imyitozo y’undi mugabo uri kwinanura ahagaze acuramye ku mutwe. Abagore barafata inkweto z'intoki (gants/gloves), n’imipira y’imbeho ari nako basimburana mu kwirambura.

Abami b’abami [emperors] bigeze kuza aha hantu hafatwa nk’ahatagatifu gusengera umusaruro mwiza. None ubu iyi parike ikoreshwa n’abaturage bishimisha mu zabukuru zabo nyuma yo kumara imyaka mirongo batanga umusanzu ku bukungu budasanzwe bw’Ubushinwa.

Bitegereje uburyo igihugu gifungura isi amarembo n’inganda zacyo zigakuza ubukungu, buri kurya isataburenge ubwa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, nk’ubukomeye ku isi.

Ariko bamwe batinya icyo imirongo shingiro Donald Trump watowe kuba Perezida, wanasezeranyije gushyiraho imisoro iremereye ku bicuruzwa biva mu Bushinwa, isobanuye ku bukungu bw’igihugu gifite ubukungu bushingiye ku kugemura ibintu mu mahanga.

Uko Trump abonwa mu Bushinwa

Kuri benshi mu Bushinwa, Trump ni umuntu wo guteraho urwenya kandi amafoto amwerekana abyina indidimbo ya YMCA akwirakwizwa ku mbuga nkoranyambaga ku buryo bugari. Abandi bahangayikishijwe n’uko ari umuntu utapfa kumenya aho ahagaze ku buryo buhamye.

“Nkunda Trump, ariko ntashikamye. Ni nde uzi icyo azakora?” uko ni ko umusaza w’imyaka 74, utahisemo ko izina rye ritangazwa, avuga.

Bamwe mu bantu batoranyijwe kuzajya muri guverinoma ya Trump, yatangaje kuva yatsinda amatora, nta kabuza ko bazatera abantu guhangayika birenzeho.

Marco Rubio, yashyizeho kuzaba Misitiri w’Ububanyi n’amahanga, yavuze ko Beijing “iteye inkeke zizasobanura iki kinyejana”. Yanafatiwe ibihano na Beijing. Umujyanama mu rwego rw’umutekano w’igihugu, Mike Waltz, muri uku kwezi yanditse avuga ko Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika yagombye kurangiza intambara zo muri Ukraine no mu burasirazuba bwo hagati ’bwangu’ kugira ngo “yibande ku hantu ikwiye kwitaho: guhangana n’ibibazo bikomeye bitewe n’ishyaka rya gikoministe ryo mu Bushinwa [Chinese Communist Party.”

Ariko umushakashatsi mukuru ku bibazo bijyanye n’Ubushinwa, Yu Jie, mu kigo Charham House gikorera i Londres, avuga ko Ubushinwa bumaze igihe bwitegura ubutegetsi bwa Trump ku nshuro ya kabiri.

Kabone n’ubwo hari impungenge ku mihanda, avuga ko kugaruka kwe ku butegetsi bidatunguranye kuri Beijing, n’ubwo atanga impuruza avuga ko isi yagombye kwitegura ibihe by’umubano wuzuye imikuku igihe Trump azaba afashe ubutegetsi mu kwezi kwa Mbere.

Beijing irateguza Washington ku “ntambara y’ubutita”

Ipiganwa hagati y’ibi bihugu bibiri rimaze igihe rikomeye, na mbere y’uko Trump atsinda amatora. Ryakomeye cyane kurushaho by’umwihariko mu gihe cy’ubutegetsi bwa Biden kubera imisoro ku bicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa ndetse no kutumvikana ku kibazo kirimo intambara Uburusiya bwashoye kuri Ukraine no kutavuga rumwe kuri ejo hazzaa ha Taiwan.

Ariko kandi hanabaye ibiganiro, abategetsi mu nzego zo hejuru muri Amerika bafata ingendo zerekeza I Beijing.

Perezida w’Ubushinwa Xi Jinping yasezeranyije gukorana n’ubutegetsi bugiye kujyaho bwa Trump, ariko yanakoresheje igihe cy’inama yagiranye na Perezida Joe Biden mu guteguza Washington ko “intambara nshya y’ubutita idakwiye kurwanwa kandi ko idashobora gutsindwa.”

Yongeyeho ko “gukumira Ubushinwa nta bupfura biburimo, ntibikwiye kandi ntacyo bishobora kugeraho”.

Beijing imaze igihe kinini ishinja Amerika n‘ibihugu biywanyi byayo kugerageza gukumira Ubushinwa, ibona ko gushyiraho imisoro yibasira ibicuruzwa biva mu Bushinwa, amategeko agabanya uburyo bwo kugera ku ikoranabuganga ry’ubwenge bucurano rizwi nka AI, ukwifatanya mu buryo bwa gisirikare mu Nyanja y’Ubushinwa n’ibindi, nka bumwe muri ubu buryo.

Kandi icyemezo cya Trump cyo kugena Rubio na Waltz muri guverinoma ye bisa n’ibyerekana ko ubutegetsi bwe “buzafata umurongo ukarishye kurushaho, uremereye [mu guhangana] n’Ubushinwa”, ibyo bivugwa na Lyle Morris wo mu kigo cy’Ubushinwa gikora ubusesenguzi muri Aziya, Asia Society’s Centre for China Analysis.

“Mu gihe Trump abona umubano we bwite afitanye na XI Jinping nk’inzira y’ibiganiro, birashoboka ko azisunga Waltz na Rubio mu gushyiraho politike zikarishye kandi zitumvikana n’Ubushinwa.”

Si yo majwi yonyine i Washington abona Ubushinwa nk’inkeke ku mutekano wa Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’ubukungu bwayo, igitecyerezo gitungura umuturage wo hasi i Beijing.

“Ubayeho neza hano kurusha muri Amerika muri aka kanya”, ni ko wa musaza w’imyaka 74 avuga mbere yo kujya kwinanura.

Byatangiye ari ukuregwa Covid none bigeze ku ipiganwa mu bitwaro kirimbuzi

Hirya mu majyaruguru ya Temple of Heaven hari umujyi witwa, Forbidden City, aho abami b’abami mu Bushinwa babaye mu gihe cy’imyaka 500. Ni aha kandi igihe muri 2017, Xi yakiririye Trump, agaha ishema uyu mushyitsi we ritahawe undi muperezida wa Amerika kuva Repubulika y’Abaturage y’Ubshinwa yashingwa.

Xi yafunze ako gace kose noneho ajyana Trump kumutembereza, ari ko byose binyuzwa kuri televiziyo ya leta uko byakabaye. Ku ifunguro rya nijoro, yahawe inkoko yitwa kung pao, noneho Trump azana videwo y’umwuzukuru we, Arabella Kushner, aririmba indirimo mu Gishinwa, amashusho yamamaye ku mbuga nkoranyambaga.

Bombi babyerekanye nk’ikintu gikomeye ku mubano wa Amerika n’Ubushinwa, ariko ibyo byajemo agatotsi nyuma y’uko icyorezo cya Covid cyadukiye i Wuhan muri 2019 cyinasakara ku isi yose muri 2020. Trump yayise ku buryo buhoraho, “virusi y’Ubushinwa” anatunga agatoki Beijing. Yanatangije intambara yo kwihorera mu rwego rw’ubucuruzi ashyiraho imisoro ku bicuruzwa by’agaciro k’amadolari miliyari 300.

Trump natangira manda ye ya kabiri, azaba ahanganye na Xi ukomeye kurushaho, watsindagiye imbaraga ze mu gutorerwa manda ya gatatu y’amateka, ndetse no kuba bishoboka ko yaguma ku butegetsi ubuzima bwe bwose.

Kuba ifite igisirikare gikomeye ku isi ndetse n’icyo mu rwego rw’amazi, ubu Washington ihangayikishijwe n’uko Ubushinwa buri kubaka ibitwaro bikomeye kurushaho bya kirimbuzi [nuclear].

Ndetse no mu gihe Trump yari arimo gutangaza guverinoma ye, televiziyo ya leta y’Ubushinwa, yerekanye amashusho y’imyitozo y’indege y’intambara yo mu bwoko kabuhariwe bwa J35-A, iri kuguruka icuramye ikongera ikaguruka ihagaze. Ubushinwa ni igihugu cya kabiri gusa ku isi gifite ubu bwoko bw’indege z’intambara mu bubiko bwabwo. Ikindi ni Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika. Ubundi bwoko bw’indege z’intambara bwa J20-S nabwo bwerekaywe muri ibyo birori.

Mu cyumweru gishize, abashakashatsi mu kigo cyitwa Middlebury Institute of International Studies giherereye muri California cyatahuye amashusho y’icyogajuru yerekana ko Ubushinwa buri kubaka ubundi bwoko bushya bw’indege yikorera ibitwaro kirimbuzi.

Tong Zhao wo mu kigo cy’ubushakashatsi cya Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, avuga ko ubushakashatsi ”bwasembuye impungenge zikomeye ku bushobozi bwo kuba Beijing yakoresha ubu buryo bwa mbere ndetse binatera inkeke zishingiye ku bitwaro kirimbuzi, bituma haba ugushyigikira gukomeye mu kongera intwaro kirimbuzi za Amerika mu gusubiza ibyo.”

“Keretse Trump ubwe nagira icyo abikoraho, kandi bisa n’ibitazashoboka, nah’ubundi bigaragara ko ibihugu byombi biri hafi y’ubushyamirane burenze mu ipiganwa ry’ibisasu kirimbuzi bishobora gutera ingaruka zigera ku rwego mpuzamahanga.”

Ikibazo cya Taiwan

Ku butegetsi bwa Xi mu myaka ya vuba ishize, Ubushinwa bwanakajije imbaraga zabwo mu kwiyitirira uduce twa Taiwan n’Inyanja y’Ubushinwa [Soth China Sea].

Imwe mu mpungenge ni uko Beijing iri kwegeranya igisirikare cyo gutera Taiwan, ifata nk’intara yivanye ku Bushinwa, kera kabaye izagaruka mu bugenzuzi bw’Ubushinwa. Ese ku butegetsi bwa Trump na guverinoma ye, Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika zaba zifite ubushake bwo kurinda Taiwan?

Ni ikibazo kibazwa buri muperezida wa Amerika. Trump yakinyuze ku ruhande, avuga ko bitamusaba gukoresha imbaraga za gisirikare kubera ko ngo Xi azi ko ari ”umusazi” kandi ibyo bibaye yahita ashyira imisoro inegekaza ibicuruzwa by’Ubushinwa.

Icyo Trump atekereza kuri Xi mu by’ukuri

Kabone n’ubwo Trump asa n’udashaka kugira uruhare mu ntambara ziba ku isi, benshi mu nzobere biteze ko Washington izakomeza guha Taipei inkunga ya gisirikare. Icya mbere, isabwa n’itegeko kugurisha intwaro zo kwitabara kuri iki kirwa. Icya kabiri, ubutegetsi bwa Trump bwagurishije intwaro nyinshi kuri Taiwan kurusha ubundi.

Bwana Morris ati:

“Hari ugushyigikira Taiwan gukomeye mu gisirikare guhuriweho. Sintekereza ko Trump azahindura cyane umurongo ku igurushwa ry’intwaro kuri Taiwan.”

Ukuyeho ibyo batandukaniyeho bigaragara, Trump asa nk’ushima cyane ishusho ya Xi nk’umuntu ukomeye.

Muri 2020 yavuze ko ngo we na Xi Jinping ”bakundana”, kabone n’ubwo byari mu gihe cy’intambara yo mu rwego rw’ubucuruzi n’Ubushinwa.

Mu kiganiro aheruka kugira, yabwiye ikinyamakuru Wall Street Journal ati:

”Nagiranye nawe umubano ukomeye”.

Biragoye kumenya icyo Xi amutekerezaho. Yavuze macye cyane ku mubano wabo ndetse avuga Trump mu izina gacye cyane.

Muri 2018, televiziyo ya leta CGTN yibasiye uyu wari perezida wa Amerika ku buryo butaziguye, itangaza videwo itaramuheshaga icyubahiro ifite amagambo arimo uburyo bwo kumuvugiraho ngo: ”Urakoze Bwana Trump, urakomeye!” Nyuma ayo mashusho yaje guhanagurwa n’abashinzwe kugenzura ibitangazwa.

Ariko icyo tuzi ni uko aba bategetsi bombi berekana uburyo bukomeye bwo gukundwakaza igihugu. Indoto ya Xi ni “ukuzahura abaturage b’Ubushinwa” mu gihe Trump avuga ko ari we wenyine “wakongera kugira Amerika igihangange”. Bombi basezeranya ko bari gukorera mu bihe bishya byiza ku bihugu byabo.

Ibyo bihe byiza kuri Amerika birimo n’imisoro yo ku rugero rwa 60% ku bicuruzwa biva mu Bushinwa.

Ariko Beijing ntabwo ishishikajwe no kongera kujya mu ntambara ya kabiri y’ubucuruzi. Ifite ibibazo byayo.

Ubukungu bucumbagira vs Imbaraga za Musk

Indoto za Xi z’iterambere ziri mu kangaratete. Ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa buri gucumbagira, urwego rw’inyubako ruri kujya hasi, hari 20% by’urubyiruko bagorwa no kubona akazi kandi Ubushinwa ni kimwe mu bihugu bifite abaturage bari gusaza vuba cyane ku isi.

Umwe mu mubabaro uterwa n’ubu bukungu ugaragara kuri Temple of Heaven. Twagiye ku mirongo miremire y’amatsinda akora ubukerarugendo mu Bushinwa atembera ku maguru. Ni ibintu bigezweho ku rubyiruko rwambara imyambaro yo mu gihe cy’ubwami bwa Qing, n’ubwo ibyo ayo makanzu ameze neza maremare ananirwa guhisha ikindi kintu kigezweho, inkweto z’umweru zoroheje zo mu bwoko bwa pantufure (trainers).

Amatsinda y’abanyeshuri ateze amatwi yitonze yumva amateka y’umujyi wabo mu gihe undi murongo w’abandi uri kuri alitari bashaka gutanga ibyifuzo [mu mutima].Nditegereza ukuntu umugore wambaye imyenda y’umukara abikora. Arahindukira inshuro eshatu, agahuza ibiganza bye, agafunga amaso ye noneho akareba mu kirere. Nyuma twaje kumubaza icyo ashaka kugeraho. Aravuga ko abantu benshi baza hano bagasaba ko abana babo babona akazi cyangwa bajya mu ishuli ryiza.

Aragira ati:

“Turifuza ubuzima bwiza n’ejo hazaza heza.”

N’ubwo Ubushinwa buvuga ko bwaranduye ubukene nyakujya, abakozi babarirwa muri za miliyoni n’abakora mu nganda mu bice bitandukanye by’igihugu, abo bose bagize umusanzu ku izamuka ry’Ubushinwa, bazahangayikishwa n’ibizakurikira.

Ejo hazaza he n’ahazaza h’ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa bishobora ku ruhande rumwe guterwa n’ubukana bw’imisoro ya Trump. Kuri iyi nshuro, Beijing iriteguye, nk’uko Yu Jie abivuga.

“Ubushinwa bwatangiye kuvanga aho bukura ibiva mu bukungu (by’umwihariko muri Brezil, Argentine no mu Burusiya) kandi bwongera n’ingano y’ibyo bwohereza hanze mu bihugu bidacuditse na Amerika. Ku rwego rwo mu gihugu, umwenda guverinoma iherutse gusubiramo ikishyura, nawo werekana uburyo bwo guharura inzira yo kugabanya ingaruka mbi zishobora guterwa n’intambara y’ubucuruzi y’ubutegetsi bwa Trump.”

Beijing ishobora no kugira ikindi cyizere. Ubu bisa n’aho umuherwe Elon Musk ategwa amatwi na Trump. Ikigo cye, Tesla, gikenera Ubushinwa cyane mu byo gikora, hafi kimwe cya kabiri cy’imodoka zikoreshwa n’amashanyarazi zikorerwa mu Bushinwa. Abategetsi b’Ubushinwa bashobora kubaza Musk niba yacubya ibitekerezo bya Trump mu ntambara y’ubucuruzi.

Ariko rero guhanganira kuyobora ikinyejana cya 21 nibishingiye gusa ku ntambara y’ubucuruzi. Indoto ya Xi inarimo uburyo bwo guhindura Ubushinwa igihugu gifite ijambo rikomeye cyane ku isi.

Bamwe mu nzobere bumva ko aha ari ho ubutegetsi bwa Trump bushobora guha Beijing amahirwe [yo kubigeraho].

Umwanya w’Ubushinwa mu ruhando rw’isi

“Abategetsi b’Ubushinwa bazongera gusubiramo amagambo avuga ko Amerika ari yo soko rukumbi ijegajeza isi, mu gihe bazaba bataka Ubushinwa nk’igihugu gishikamye kandi cyo kwiringirwa,” ni ko Yu Jie asobanura.

Biden yamaze imyaka ine yubaka ubucuti muri Aziya n’ibihugu nka Koreya y’Epfo, Ubuyapani, Filipine na Vietnam, byose bigamije gukumira Ubushinwa.

Mu bihe byahise, imvugo ya “Amerika mbere na mbere” [America First] yashyize mu kato inaca intege ibi bihugu bikorana na Amerika. Yasaga n’uhitamo dipolomasi idakomeye cyane kandi igashyira ikiguzi ku mubano wa Amerika. Muri 2018, nk’urugero, yasabye ko Koreya y’Epfo itanga andi mafaranga kugira ngo agumye ingabo za Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika mu gihugu.

Beijing yamaze kubaka umubano n’ibihugu bifite ubukungu buri kuzamuka. Iri no kugerageza gusana umubano wayo n’Ubwongereza ndetse n’Uburayi, mu gihe iri no kwiyunga n’abaturanyi bayo nka Koreya y’Epfo n’Ubuyapani ku bibazo by’amateka.

Ijambo rya Washington niriramuka rigabanutse ku isi, bishobora kuba intsinzi ya Xi.

Tugarutse kuri ya parike, igihe turi kuganira ku byavuye mu matora ya Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika, umugabo umwe aratwereka intoki enye. “Afite intoki enye gusa,” ni ko avuga. “Amerika ihora ihindura abategetsi. Mu Bushinwa tuba dufite igihe kirenze.”

Ni byo kandi koko igihe kiri ku ruhande rwa Beijing. Xi ashobora kuba Perezida ubuzima bwe bwose, kandi byanatuma ashobora gutera intambwe nto ariko zishikamye mu kugera ku ntego ze.

Kabone n’ubwo Trump yabyitambikamo, ntibizamara igihe kirekire.