Ukraine: Intambara ya Donbas izoba ndende kandi isesekemwo amaraso menshi

Biboneka ko ata masezerano y'amahoro canke yo guhagarika intambara agiye kuboneka, canke ngo Ukraine yishikane.

Aya mezi abiri ari imbere agiye kubamwo ico abajejwe kwivuna abansi ba Amerika bita "intambara y'inkota" mu karere abanya Ukraine bita "Intambara y'ingabo zishize hamwe" (opération de forces conjointes/Joint Forces Operation, JFO).

Ni mu ntara izwi nka Donbas.

Mu myaka umunani, impande zompi ziri mu ntambara muri ako karere, aho inyeshamba zirondera ko iyo ntara yiyonkora kuri Ukraine zifashwe mu mugongo n'igisirikare c'Uburusiya.

Ubu, inyuma yo gutsindwa i Kyiv, ingabo z'Uburusiya zatanguye intambara muri iyo ntara, aho zigiye guhangana n'ingabo za Ukraine zikomeye kandi zifise uburambwe gusumba izindi.

Intambara zimirije ziboneka ko zizobamwo amayeri y'intambara yakoreshejwe mu gihe c'intambara ya kabiri y'isi yose gusumba iyo mu bisagara vya Kyiv, Mariupol na Sumy mu ntambara imaze amayinga hafi umunani gushika ubu.

Hagati aho, nta wuzi ko Abarusiya bazokworoherwa.

Inyuma y'aho batsindiwe mu buraruko, Uburusiya vyabaye ngombwa ko bukora impinduka zikomeye.

Impinduka nya mukuru n'uko hagenywe umujenerali arongora urugamba.

Ibi s'ukuvuga ko izina rya Jenerali Alexander Dvornikov ari co kintu gikomeye, ariko ikintu nyamukuru n'uko ubu Abarusiya barongowe n'intwazangabo imwe ari we azoba ategerezwa gushika ku ntego y'urugamba yo gufata akarere kizwe neza, hakurondera kurwanira uturere dutandukanye, aho usanga ari nk'ihiganwa mu buraruko, abandi mu bumanuko abandi mu buseruko.

Uburusiya ubu buriko buragerageza gusubiriza ivyo bwatakaje bitari bike, gushika ku 20% z'igisirikare cabwo.

Utu twigoro dushasha dushobora kutazohindura ibintu. Ariko bizofata amezi atari make kugira ngo abasirikare hamwe n'aba reservistes baherutse gutumwako bitegurire intambara.

Inguvu ziriko ziregeranywa zizoba zikomeye, aho ivya nkenerwa bizova hafi kandi mu mayira ameze neza mu Burusiya, ibi bikazotuma birinda amakosa akomeye yibonekeza muri ino ntambara gushika ubu.

Ikindi gikomeye n'uko mu nteguro, bazoshobora gukoresha indege ibi bikazozana akarusho gusumba, ziri hafi y'ibirindiro vyabo kandi n'ikirere gicunzwe neza.

Ariko ibiherutse kuba vyarerekanye ko integuro zabo zidashobora kwerekana ingene ingabo zirwanira mu kirere za Ukraine zishobora kwivuna.

Hanyuma, igisirikare c'Uburusiya camye kandi kiracafise ibirwanisho rutura, ibirwanisho bita "the Red God of War" (twogereranya mu kirundi ngo Imana itukura y'Intambara).

Intambara mu bibanza bikuru bikuru

Muri ubu bwoko bw'intambara, ingabo zisuka ku birindiro vy'ingabo za Ukraine zirwanira mu bibanza bikuru bikuru birunzwemwo ingabo nyinshi, bikaba ari uturere tuzingurijwe n'inyeshamba zirondera kwiyonkora.

Muri kahise ka gisirikare, izi ntambara zitanga amahirwe yo kuzibirira ingabo z'umwansi mu "duce dutoya".

Abahinga muri kahise ka gisirikare bazokwama bibuka Ypres Salient (1914-1918), Verdun (1916), Kursk (1943), hamwe rero n'intambara ya Bulde (Battle of the Bulge/ Bataille des Ardennes) hagati ya 1944 na 1945, nk'uturorero dukomeye tw'intambara y'ubu bwoko.

Abarusiya bazorondera kumenera mu birindiro vy'abanye Ukraine, bazingurize ibibanza bazoba barimwo, babate mu mutego maze bace babarimbura bakoresheje indege n'ibirwanisho rutura, canke na ho babomore.

Inyeshamba zishigikiwe n'Uburusiya zarakoresheje aya mayeri ku rugero ruto mu ntambara ya Debaltseve mu kwa kabiri 2015, aho ibirwanisho rutura vyagize ingaruka mbi cane.

Abasesanguzi ba gisirikare ba Amerika bavuga ko biteze ko ibirindiro biri ahitwa Severodonetsk Salient, hamwe na cane cane ibiri mu micungararo ya Sloviansk, ari vyo vya mbere Abarusiya bazogerageza kuzinguriza.

Bagashobora kandi guca batera n'igisagara ca Dnipro, igisagara gifise akamaro ntangere mu vyo gutumatumanako n'amabarabara, kugira ngo bigarurire akarere kose kari mu buseruko bw'uruzi Dneieper.

Uwurongoye urugamba rwa Ukraine Jenerali Valerii Zaluzhnyi n'abakozi biwe barazi ibi vyose.

Abarusiya bashaka intambara zinyaruka kugira bahashe umwansi. Ico bazobona ni uko izoba ari intambara yo gusamburana.

Mu bintu bibi bagiye bacamwo, intwazangabo za Ukraine zirazi amahano yo kuzingurizwa.

Zarerekanye ko zifise ubushobozi bwo guhindura amayeri muri ubu bwoko bw'intambara.

Ikindi ciza kandi ku banya-Ukraine ni uko bazi ibigiye kuba. Igendereza ry'ikirere rya OTAN co kimwe n'inguvu z'inzego z'igendereza za Ukraine, bizotuma ata bitero giturumbuka bibaho.

Intambara ndende?

Mu gihe imfashanyo ziva mu bihugu vyo mu burengero zibandanya zisukira, Ukraine ni ngombwa ko igira ubushobozi bwo kurwana intambara ndende gusumba Abarusiya.

Imfashanyo ya OTAN izoba kirumara mu guha inguvu ingabo za Ukraine zizoba zihanganye n'Abarusiya, mu kubaha akaryo gakomeye ko kwivuna no kwisubiza uturere.

Hagati aho, urugero rw'ukungene bazoshobora gukingira ikirere ni co kintu nyamukuru, ari na co gituma kugira ibirindiro vya misire bishobora kurasa indege ari co kintu ca mbere cihutirwa.

N'aho Abarusiya bafise intambwe zidasanzwe mu bijanye n'ubuhinga n'ibikoresho, ingabo za Ukraine zizobandanya zikorera ku ntege nke z'Uburusiya mu bijanye n'ibikoresho vyabo.

Hanyuma kandi, imwe mu bigize intambara n'uko kugira ngo uwuteye ashobore gutsinda, aba asumba umwansi incuro zitatu.

Iigisirikare c'Uburusiya gishaje kiri kure kugira ngo gishike kuri uru rugero.

Hagati aho, hari igihe ibi bihinduka, dufatiye nk'akarorero mu ntambara yo mu Kigobe c'abarabu mu 1991, aho ingabo mvamakungu zari zirongowe na Amerika mu bumenyi budasanzwe kandi zifise ibikoresho bigezweho zakubise igisirikare kinini ca Iraq kandi cari gifise uburambe mu ntambara.

Muri ico gihe, ku ruhande rw'abateye, habaye cane ivyo gusubiriza ubuke bwabo babusubiriza n'ubuhinga, integuro zo ku rwego rwo hejuru hamwe n'ikintu nyamukuru cerekeye ubumwe n'ishaka.

Muri ino ntambara ya 2022, abivuna ni bo bafise ibi bintu nkenerwa gusumba ingabo z'Uburusiya zamunzwe n'ingorane z'igiturire, iz'ubuhinga, n'iz'inyigisho zituma badashobora kurwana intambara zigoye.

Izi ngorane nta ho ziraja kandi ntizigiye gukurwaho n'ukwitaho guhindagura intwazangabo zirongoye urugamba.

Igisumbirije, ivyo Uburusiya bwatakaje mu bitero vyo kwivuna vy'ingabo za Ukraine vyaragabanije abasirikare, ibikoresho na morale.

Intambara ikurikira iza yatanguye. Kwibaza ngo ibintu bizogenda uku canke kuriya ubu kwoba ari ukwihenda, kuko n'abajenerali bari ku rugamba ntavyo bazi.

Birashoboka ko akazoza k'igisirikare c'Uburusiya gafise kuba kararangiye mu kizwi nk'intambara ishobora kuba igiye kuba ndende.

Ikintu conyene gishobora kuba gisigaye ni uko Uburusiya bushobora gufata ingingo yo kwunyura ibintu mu gukoresha "ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda" mu buryo ubu canke buriya, haba mu gukoresha ibirwanisho ruhonyanganda bifise ubukana buto canke ibirwanisho vy'ubumara.

Amakuru ava i Mariupol avuga ko Uburusiya bushobora kuba bumaze kubikoresha, mu gihe vyoba ari ivyo ukuri, vyoba vyerekana ko Uburusiya bwiteguye gukora ikintu kibi cane gusumba mu gihe bwoba butinya kwambara ibara ryo gutsindwa gisirikare muri Ukraine.