Ukraine: Ni ibihe byago biriho ko hashobora kuba intambara kirimbuzi?

Ku cyumweru, Perezida Putin yasabye ingabo ze kwigiza hafi no "gutegura cyane" intwaro kirimbuzi "zikajya mu gihe cy'imirwano". Ariko se mu by'ukuri ibi bivuze iki?

Ntabwo bisobanutse mu buryo bwuzuye, nk'uko abasesenguzi b'iburengerazuba babivuga.

Abategetsi mu Bwongereza bavuga ko ibyo Putin yavuze bidahuye n'ibyo bo batekereza ku rwego rwo kwitegura kw'intwaro kirimbuzi z'Uburusiya.

Bamwe bibaza ko Putin yasobanuraga kuva ku rwego rwo hasi cyane rwo kwitegura bikajya ku rwego "rwisumbuyeho" (urwego rwo hejuru no kuba izo ntwaro zishobora guhita zikoreshwa n'igisirikare) ariko ibyo byose ntacyizewe neza. Gusa buri rwego rurategura izo ntwaro kuba zakoreshwa.

Abandi benshi ariko babona ko ibyo yavuze ari nko kuburira rubanda, ariko mu by'ukuri bitarimo umugambi wo gukoresha izi ntwaro, mu gihe Putin azi ko ibihugu by'iburengerazuba nabyo byahita bizikoresha.

Ibyo ariko ntibisobanuye ko nta byago biriho kandi uko ibintu bimeze birakurikiranirwa bugufi cyane.

Hari ukuburira gushya?

Mu cyumweru gishize, Putin akoresheje imvugo izimije kurushaho, ko ibindi bihugu nibyivanga mu migambi y'Uburusiya bizahura n'ingaruka "bitigeze bibona mbere". Ibyo byasobanuwe nko kuburira NATO/OTAN kutibeshya yinjira mu mirwano muri Ukraine.

Gusa NATO kuva mbere yavuze ko ibyo itazabikora, kuko izi ko byahita bitangiza imirwano n'Uburusiya ishobora guhinduka intambara y'intwaro kirimbuzi.

Kuburira Putin yatanze ku cyumweru kwari kwahuranyije kandi kugenewe rubanda.

Kubera iki uku kuburira gushya?

Putin yavuze ko ibyo yabivuze kubera "amagambo ashotorana". Kuwa mbere, ibiro bye Kremlin byavuze ko byavuye ku magambo y'abategetsi b'iburengerazuba, barimo ushinzwe ububanyi n'amahanga w'Ubwongereza Liz Truss, wavuze ko hashobora kubaho kurwana na OTAN.

Abandi bategetsi iburengerazuba bo bavuga ko kuburira kwa Putin kwaje kubera ko muri Ukraine birimo kugenda uko atabiteganyije.

Ko ashobora kuba yarakerensheje ukwihagararaho yateganyaga ku rugamba muri Ukraine. Kandi ko yasuzuguye uburyo iburengerazuba bakwishyira hamwe mu gufata ibihano mu kumusubiza. Ibyo bikaba byamugeza ku gukoresha izindi nzira no kuvuga ibikomeye.

Umujenerali uheruka kujya mu zabukuru yabwiye uyu mwanditsi Gordon Corera ati: "Iki ni ikimenyetso cy'umujinya, no kurakara kubera uko ibintu bimeze."

Ambasaderi wa Amerika muri ONU, Linda Thomas-Greenfield avuga ko ibyavuzwe na Putin ari imwe mu mpamvu ze zo guha ishingiro intambara ya Ukraine, agaragaza ko atari we washotoranye ahubwo ari we wari wugarijwe akeneye kwirengera.

Ubundi buryo bwo kubona ibi ni uko Putin afite impungenge kubera imigambi yo guha Ukraine intwaro akaba ashaka kuburira iburengerazuba ngo badakomeza ibyo bikorwa.

Ukundi kubibona kuriho ni uko Putin yaba atewe umujinya n'ibihano, yavuzeho no mu ijambo rye, ko bigamije guteza imyivumbagatanyo no gukuraho ubutegetsi bwe. Ariko ubutumwa bwe muri rusange burasa n'ubwo kuburira OTAN ko niyinjira mu ntambara ibintu bizamera nabi.

Izindi nkuru ku ntambara y'Uburusiya na Ukraine

Ibyago biriho ni ibihe?

Nubwo ibyavuzwe na Putin byaba ari ukuburira gusa bitarimo ubushake bwa nyabwo bwo gukoresha izo ntwaro, buri gihe hari ubwoba ko uruhande rumwe rwibeshya ku byo urundi rutekereza, ibintu bikagera kure.

Impungenge zindi ni uko Putin afite abantu bacye iruhande rwe bashobora kumubwira ukuri. Bamwe batinya ko uko abona ibintu bigenda biba ibidasanzwe.

Hari n'abizeye ko mu gihe yatanga amabwiriza arenzeho, abandi bo hasi ye mu butegetsi bashobora kudashyira mu ngiro amabwiriza ye.

Ubwoba bw'intambara y'intwaro kirimbuzi bwariyongereye ariko iibyago ko ibaho byo biracyari hasi.

Iburengerazuba babikoraho iki?

Kugeza ubu, leta z'iburengerazuba zikomeje kwitonda kugira ngo amagambo cyangwa ibikorwa bitarushaho kuba bibi.

Ingabo za Amerika ziri mu gihe ziba ziteguye kizwi nka Defcon, gusa kuwa mbere Jen Psaki ushinzwe itangazamakuru muri White House yavuze ko "nta mpamvu ziriho ubu zo guhindura" urwego rwo kwitegura kw'intwaro kirimbuzi.

Ubwongereza bufite intwaro kirimbuzi mu mato agendera munsi y'inyanja gusa bushobora kutagira icyo butangaza kumugaragaro, mu kwirinda kuzamura umwuka mubi bwerekana ko ibyavuzwe na Putin byahawe agaciro kanini, cyangwa igikorwa gishobora gutuma Uburusiya buhita busubiza.

Abategetsi mu by'umutekano b'iburengereazuba bavuga ko ibiriho ubu atari amakimbirane y'intwaro kirimbuzi kandi bidakwiye guhinduka yo.

Ibyo Uburusiya buri gukora birazwi?

Ben Wallace, minisitiri w'ingabo w'Ubwongereza, yabwiye BBC ko nta mpinduka barabona ku miterere isanzwe y'intwaro kirimbuzi z'Uburusiya. Ko ibyo bikurikiranirwa hafi, nk'uko inzego z'ubutasi zibivuga.

Mu gihe cy'intambara y'ubutita, ibihugu by'iburengerazuba byakoze uburyo bunini bwo kuneka no gucungira hafi ububiko bw'intwaro kirimbuzi za Moscow.

Ibyogajuru, kumviriza no kwinjira mu butumwa, n'ubundi buryo birakoreshwa mu kureba impinduka z'uko ibitu bimeze - nko gutegura intwaro cyangwa abazikoresha - ibyo bikaba byatanga kuburira.

Byinshi muri ibyo biracyari mu mwanya wabyo kandi ibihugu by'iburengerazuba bikomeza gucungira hagufi ibikorwa by'Uburusiya mu kumenya niba hari impinduka ikomeye. Kugeza ubu nta kimenyetso gihari.