Amatora ya USA mu 2020: Ni nde ari imbere - Trump canke Biden?

Inyandiko gusa
Joe Biden na Donald Trump

Abatora muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika biteze gufata ingingo ku wa 03 z'ukwa cumi na rimwe nimba Donald Trump ashobora kubandanya arongora igihugu mu kindi kiringo c'imyaka ine.

Uyu muperezida akomoka mu mugambwe w'aba Repubulika ahanganye n'uwitoza ku giti c'umugambwe uharanira Demokarasi (Democratic Party) Joe Biden, azwi cane ko yari icegera ca Perezida Barack Obama, ariko kandi akaba ari muri politike ya Amerika kuva mu myaka ya 1970.

Mu gihe umunsi w'amatora utera wegereza, ibigo bikurikirana amatora bibandanya birondera kumenya ingene ibintu bimeze mu gihugu mu kubaza abatora uwo bipfuza guha amajwi.

Tuzobandanya dukurikirana ibizova mu majwi ngereranyo kandi tugerageze kurabira hamwe ivyo ashobora n'ivyo adashobora kutwereka ku bijanye n'uwushobora gutsinda aya matora.

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Biden niwe aza imbere ku rwego rw'igihugu

Amajwi ngereranyo ku rwego rw'igihugu ni inzira nziza yerekana ukungene uwuhiganwa akunzwe mu gihugu cose muri rusangi, ariko ntibivuga ko ari yo nzira yo kwerekana ibizova mu matora.

Nk'akarorero, mu 2016 amajwi ngereranyo yashira Hillary Clinton imbere, kandi mu matora yarasumbije Donald Trump amajwi hafi imiliyoni zitatu, ariko yaratsinzwe - ibi bikaba ari ukubera umukuru w'igihugu atorwa n'intumwa zitora (college electoral), vyumvikana ko gusumvya amajwi uwo muhiganwa bidasigura ko uba utsinze amatora.

Muri kino gihe, Joe Biden ari imbere ya Donald Trump mu majwi ngereranyo ku rwego rw'igihugu kuva mu ntango z'uno mwaka. Kuva mu mezi aheze, yashikanye ibice 50%, rimwe rimwe akaba yagiye asumvya uwo bahiganwa ku bice 10.

Ninde ari imbere mu majwi?

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ABADEMOKARATE

BIDEN

52%

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ABAREPUBLIKANI

TRUMP

44%

Ingereranyo y'uko baza gutora ufatiye ku majwi y'umuntu umwe

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30 days until Umunsi w'itora

Ibiharuro ngereranyo vya BBC vy'amajwi biraba amajwi y'umuntu umwe umwe mu minsi indwi bigaca vyerekana aho bishobora kuganisha hafatiwe ku giharuro basanze kiri hagati na hagati.

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Ibi bitandukanye no mu 2016, aho ibiharuro bitari bitomoretse neza, mu gihe Bwana Trump na Hilary Clinton yari ahanganye nawe bagenda batandukanywa n'amajwi make cane, uko umunsi w'amatora wagenda wegereza.

Skip Ibisomwa cane and continue reading
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Ni izihe ntara zizobangurukanya?

Nk'uko umupfasoni Clinton yavyiboneye mu 2016, igitigiri c'amajwi uronka sico nkenererwa cane gusumba uburere wayaronkeyemwo.

Amatora muri Amerika

Hafi intara zose zitorera umunsi umwe, bisigura ko muvy'ukuri hariho intara nkeya abahiganwa bompi barondera gutsinda. Izi ntara rero nizo zizokwerekana uwatsinze n'uwatsinzwe, zikaba zizwi nk'intara zigize urubuga rw'intambara kubera zifise igitigiri kinini c'intumwa zitora.

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Muri iyi nteguro isanzwe ikoreshwa muri Amerika aho ari intumwa zitora umukuru w'igihugu, buri ntara ihabwa igitigiri c'intumwa hisunzwe igitigiri c'abayiserukira mu nama nshingamateka na nkenguzamateka. Intumwa zose zitora ni 538, vyumvikana ko kugira utsinde utegerezwa kugira 270.

Nk'uko iyi karata yo hejuru ivyerekana, intara zimwe zimwe zirwanirwa zifise igitigiri kinini c'intumwa, vyumvikana ko abahiganwa bafata umwanya munini cane bazikoreramwo imyiyamamazo.

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Ni nde ari imbere muri izi ntara zigize urubuga rw'intambara ?

Muri uno mwanya, ingene ibintu bihagaze muri zino ntara zifise intumwa nyinshi ni uko Joe Biden aza imbere, ariko urugendo ruracari rurerure kandi ibintu bishobora guhinduka mu kanya gato, cane cane mu gihe Donald Trump yokwinjirayo.

Aya majwi ngereranyo yerekana ko Bwana Biden ari imbere mu ntara za Michigan, Pennsylvania na Wisconsin - intara zitatu zikomeye mu vy'amahinguriro, umukeba wiwe wo mu mugambwe w'aba Repubulika akaba yahatsinze ku bice biri munsi ya 1% mu 2016.

Amajwi ngereranyo aheruka mu maleta ahiganirwa cane

Manuka urebe ibindi byinshi
Kanda ku majambo y'umutwe utondeke urutonde ufatiye ku murongo mu buryo buduga canke bumanuka
Arizona 47,9% 47,0% Trump + 3,6%
Florida 47,9% 47,0% Trump + 1,2%
Georgia 47,2% 48,2% Trump + 5,2%
Iowa 45,6% 47,6% Trump + 9,5%
Michigan 50,0% 45,8% Trump + 0,2%
Minnesota 48,0% 43,7% Clinton + 1,5%
Nevada 48,7% 46,3% Clinton + 2,4%
New Hampshire 53,4% 42,4% Clinton + 0,4%
North Carolina 47,6% 47,8% Trump + 3,7%
Ohio 46,3% 47,3% Trump + 8,2%
Pennsylvania 48,7% 47,5% Trump + 0,7%
Texas 46,5% 47,8% Trump + 9,1%
Virginia 51,7% 40,3% Clinton + 5,4%
Wisconsin 51,0% 44,3% Trump + 0,8%

Fungura bushya 'browser' yawe ubone ibiganirwaho

Aho biva: US Census Amakuru ya nyuma aheruka: 03/11

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Ariko, abajejwe imyiyamamazo ya Bwana Trump barafise ubwoba muri izi ntara zifise intumwa nyinshi yari yatsinzemwo cane mu 2016. Mu ntara za Iowa, Ohio na Texas yari yazitsinzemwo ku bice biri hagati ya 8 na 10%, ariko muri kino gihe ibiharuro biboneka ko vyegeranye cane.

Ariko amasoko y'akamari yoyo ntarahebura. Ibitigiri biheruka vyerekana ko habuze gato ngo Trump ashikane ibice 50%, ibi bikerekana ko hari abantu biteze ko ibintu bishobora guhinduka mu ndwi nkeya ziri imbere maze ku munsi w'amatora, ku wa 03 z'ukwa cumi na rimwe, ibintu bigahinduka.

Hagati aho, abahinga mu vya politike nta cizere kinini bafise ko ashobora gusubira gutorwa. Urubuga ngurukanabumenyi, FiveThirtyEight, rusanzwe rukora imyihwezo ya politike, ruvuga ko Bwana Biden ari we "afise amahirwe yo gutsinda aya matora, mu gihe ikinyamakuru The Economist naco nyene kivuga ko "biboneka cane" ko ashobora gutsinda Bwana Trump.

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Coronavirus yoba yaragize ingaruka ku biharuro vy'amajwi ya Trump?

Ikiza karanda ca coronavirus nirwo ruririmbo muri Amerika kuva mu ntango z'uno mwaka kandi ingene Donald Trump yavyifashemwo ntibibonwa kumwe n'abanyamigambwe.

Mu kwa gatatu kugeze hagati, abamushigikiye bariyongereye cane igihe afatiye ingingo zo mu bihe bidasanzwe, akanemerera intara imiliyaridi 50 z'amadorari kugira ngo zishobore guhagarika ikwirakwira ry'uwu mugera. Muri ico gihe, ikigo gikuru cegeranya amajwi ngereranyo Ipsos camenyesheje ko ibice 55% vy'Abanyamerika bamushigikiye.

Ariko icizere abo mu mugambwe w'abaharanira Demokarasi bari bamufitiye caraheze, mu gihe abo mu mugambwe w'aba Repubulika babandanije bari inyuma yiwe.

Amatora muri Amerika

Gushika mu kw'indwi, iki kigo cerekana ko bamwe mu banywanyi biwe batanguye kugira amakenga ku kungene ariko avyifatamwo - ariko ibiharuro bikaba vyarasubiye kuduga gatoya mu kwa munani n'ukw'icenda.

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Uwu mugera uboneka ko ari co kibazo gishobora kwizizira imitwe y'abatora, kandi abahinga bo kuri kaminuza ya Washington baherutse gusohora umwihwezo werekana ko igitigiri c'abazoba bamaze guhitanwa n'uwu mugera gishobora kuba caduze gushika ku bantu 230.000 gushika ku munsi w'amatora.

Bwana Trump yizeye ko umugambi yise Operation Warp Speed, wo kurondera urucanco hasi hejuru, rushobora gukora ibitangaza mu kwezi kw'icumi, ikintu ca nyuma gishobora gutuma amatora afata iyindi sura.

Umuhanuzi mu vy'ubuhinga muri uwo mugambi, avuga ko hari "amahirwe make cane rwose ariko ko hari icizere" ko urucanco rushobora kuba rwabonetse imbere y'igenekerezo rya 03 z'ukw'icumi na rimwe, umunsi w'amatora.

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None twokwizera aya majwi ngereranyo?

Ubu biroroshe kuyiyamiriza mu kuvuga ko yerekanye ibitari vyo mu 2016, kandi na Perezida Trump yama ayiyamiriza igihe cose. Ariko si ukuvuga ko ata kuri kurimwo.

Amajwi ngereranyo yose yegeranywa mu gihugu yerekana ko Hillary Clinton ari we yari imbere ku bice biri hejuru gatoya, ariko si ukuvuga ko bitari vyo, mu gihe tuzi ko yasumbije umukeba wiwe amajwi imiliyoni zitatu.

Abegeranya aya majwi ngereranyo barahuye n'ingorane mu 2016 - cane cane mu kunanirwa no kwerekana ingene abahiganwa bagenda basumbanya amajwi hishimikijwe ibitigiri vya za ntumwa zitora buri ntara yemerewe - ibi bikavuga ko inguvu za Trump mu ntara zimwe zimwe zifise intumwa nyinshi zitahuse ziboneka gushika mu minsi ya nyuma y'imyiyamamazo.

Muri kino gihe, ibigo vyose vyegeranya aya majwi ngereranyo vyarakosoye iki kibazo.

Ariko rero muri uno mwaka, igipfungu ni cinshi gusumba uko abantu bavyibaza kubera ikiza karanda ca coronavirus n'ingaruka zaco haba ku butunzi ndetse no ku kungene abantu bazotora mu kw'icumi na rimwe.

Rero ivyerekanwa n'aya majwi ngereranyo bikwiye kwitonderwa cane, na rirya hakiri umwanya utari muto imbere y'umunsi w'amatora nyezina.