Mild for Cheltenham's Gold Cup Day...but will it stay dry? (updated Fri. 12:45hrs)

(NB: REGULAR UPDATES WILL BE MADE TO THIS FORECAST)

I'm usually busy providing the weather forecasts on the BBC's 606 Forum ahead of each F1 Grand Prix, but now my attention shifts to racing of a four-legged kind.

The Cheltenham National Hunt Festival runs this week from Tuesday to Friday, with over 200,000 spectators expected to attend. So, how's the weather shaping-up for those visiting - and competing in - this year's meeting?

Much as captured in this photo from the 2009 Ryanair Chase, grey skies will again prevail at Cheltenham but not all the time! (Photo: Julian Finney/Getty Images)

It'll certainly be mild throughout the event - a consistent theme for the weather this week. Spring-like dry and fine conditions will prevail at start the Festival and the risk of any significant wet weather during most races has lessened, based on the very latest forecast modelling.

So, here's some forecast detail...

TODAY: FRIDAY 19 MARCH (Cheltenham Gold Cup Day): It's a dry, mild (about 7C) and partly cloudy start, with rather misty visibilities around parts of the Cotswolds in the early morning - a legacy of Thursday evening's rain. The light southwesterly winds continue. 

Sunny spells will develop during the morning and - after a good deal of dry, settled but increasingly overcast weather - further rain is expected to arrive towards the mid afternoon.

The Gold Cup's wet-or-dry fortunes will very much hang in the balance! The main band of rain is expected to arrive into Prestbury Park around 3pm but it's highly likely some drizzle and outbreaks of patchy light rain could appear before then. So it'll likely prove touch and go as to how wet the course will have become by 3.20pm, as the race gets underway! 

Winds will be light to moderate SSW, gusting around 15-20mph by 3pm. It's a mild prospect once again even under the cloud cover, as maximum temperatures settle around 12-13C.

--------------------------------------------

(Earlier race day forecast details follow:)

THURSDAY 18 MARCH (Ladies' Day): Dry and mild in the early morning and despite a good deal of high and medium-level cloud, some hazy bright spells will greet spectators arriving at Prestbury Park. It will become the breeziest day of the Festival - so ladies, pin-down those hats! However, with gusts probably only to around 30mph or so by afternoon, the wind strength will not prove especially troublesome for the course officials or the riders. 

Dry, mild & increasingly breezy weather is expected during all of the morning and early afternoon. Always a lot of cloud around, but some brighter spells at times until midday.

A band of rain will arrive from the west into the afternoon and early evening period, perhaps preceded by a few showery outbreaks of light rain earlier in the afternoon as the cloud tends to thicken-up. Despite some moderately heavier bursts later in the day, the total rainfall accumulation should not trouble Prestbury Park ahead of Friday - perhaps amounting to between 1 to 5mm, tops. Current forecast predictions suggest the main band of rain will appear towards 4pm and - ever-weakening after dark - clear around 10pm, leaving mostly dry, mild but very cloudy / murky weather overnight, with some localised mist and hill fog.

It'll certainly prove another noticeably mild day, as temperatures again reach a positively balmy 13 to 15C into the early afternoon.

WEDNESDAY 17 MARCH (St. Patrick's Day): A milder start this time and the moderate SW breeze is just a little more noticeable compared to yesterday. A lot of cloud around in the early morning, potentially thick enough to give one or two spots of drizzle as a weakening front crosses eastwards, but this very readily fizzles-out and it's looking decent enough thereafter through the rest of the day.

With the unlikely exception of one or two spots of light rain, once again dry weather will prevail today. There'll generally be a lot more cloud compared to Tuesday, but some bright or sunny spells will start to appear later this morning and into the afternoon. The breeze will ease even further through the day, with gusts no higher than 15mph - so winds are again not a feature of concern. It'll again feel pleasantly mild, even with any cloud cover, as temperatures reach around 14C. 

Later through the evening and overnight, much of the low-level cloud clears and it will remain dry. It's unlikely temperatures will fall sufficiently for even a touch of grass frost and indeed quite the opposite is forecast as minima hold up at about 3 to 5C...