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The future or the past

  • Nick
  • 22 Mar 06, 04:52 PM

He called it a budget for the future and you knew that he meant HIS future and the Labour Party's, as well as the country's.

Gordon Brown turned his 10th budget into a 10-year plan for the next occupant of Number 10 - whoever that might be. A chancellor with no money to give away - but no black hole to fill either - could only tinker with a spending plan here and the odd tax here.

So, instead he unveiled what he called a long-term ambition to give state schools as much money as private schools receive now. Study the Treasury's Red Book - the bible of hard facts that sheds harsh light on political rhetoric - and you discover that the ambition comes with no figures attached, no target date and no explanation of how it will be paid for.

Does that make it meaningless? No. Because Gordon Brown is giving his party what it craves - what he loves to call a political dividing line - a reminder, in other words of why they are in the Labour party and not the Tories.

His mind is already clearly set on the battle ahead with David Cameron. He reminded the Tory leader that he was there on Black Wednesday; challenged his claim to be green; and insisted that he - like all Tories - would put taxcutting before necessary public investment.

"He is the past" snapped back the other pretender to Number Ten. Which of the two men's Budget Day predictions proves right - which is the future and which the past - will prove to be the lasting memory of this most political of all budgets.

This entry is brought to you by the number 10

  • Nick
  • 22 Mar 06, 12:22 PM

So we have the the tenth budget from the man who's been waiting 10 years to get into Number 10.

Gordon Brown today matches the feat of Nicholas Vansittart - the last chancellor to deliver 10 speeches pulled out of the famous Red Box. His fate is not an ideal omen. He went on to become... the Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster.

Today - with no money to spend but also no budget black hole to fill - Mr Brown will fill the vacuum with politics. He'll give his vision of how to govern for the next 10 years if, by any chance at all, he might have a role to play.

As it's David Cameron's first budget, expect Brown also to try to draw - in the words of his favourite cliché - "dividing lines with the Tories". He'll try to answer Cameron's greatest strength - on the environment - and expose his greatest weakness - how he can hint at tax cuts at the same time as promising improved public services.

Update 1235 GMT: Gordon must be reading - he used my Vansittart gag as his opening line!

Update 1255 GMT: He can't resist, can he? Gordon Brown has already reminded everyone where David Cameron was on Black Wednesday, rejecting his alleged "budget representations" to cut spending by £17 billion, and attacking his opposition to the climate change levy. He called it a "budget for the future". It's clear now that he meant his and not just ours.

Update 1258 GMT: Tony Blair's face is a picture - occasionally remembering to nod and smile but often looking miles away as if recalling David Cameron's question at PMQs "Is this the Chancellor's last budget?"

Update 1309 GMT: He's still at it! David Cameron's fitting a wind turbine on his new house so as to save energy and look Green. Gordon says he'll pay for wind turbines on schools and council houses.

Update 1332 GMT: So, Gordon's big flourish was to repeat his favourite pledge - investment in schools and hospitals NOT tax cuts. It's an ambition not a promise. A political pledge that the cheque's in the post to schools. If you make Gordon PM.

Update 1415 GMT So much for "No Punch and Judy!" Coming face-to-face with Gordon Brown for the first time, David Cameron leant across across the Despatch Box, shouted rather than spoke and pointed his finger. There were lots of high quality Oxford Union-style gags at Gordon Brown's expense - "In a carbon conscious world we have a fossil fuel Chancellor" and "He's an anologue politician in a digital world". It proved - once again - that he fears nothing and no-one. Whether his final words - "He is the past" - prove to be prophetic, or his own political epitaph, will be the fascinating story of the next few years.


Update 1431 GMT Study the Treasury's Red Book - the bible of hard facts that shed harsh light on political rhetoric - and you discover that the "long term ambition" to match what private schools spend in state schools comes with no figues attached, no target date and no explanation of how it will be paid for. Provided the government doesn't cut school spending it will inevitably reach what's spent now in cash terms in private schools.

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