Mercury Prize: Who Will Win in 2011?

A year ago I wrote a Music Blog article predicting the artists that would contest this year's Mercury Prize. The winners, The xx, were mentioned early in the piece; but my big tips were Wild Beasts for their second album, Two Dancers. With many a write-up of the night awarding the Kendall quartet honorary second place, I'm happy that my crystal ball-gazing wasn't totally wide of the eventual mark.

With that in mind, I look to next year's Mercury Prize with some optimism, knowledgeable that the judging panel regularly selects acts that have appeared on previous shortlists, and aware that the winner might well be a record already in stores, as xx was when I wrote my piece of 12 months ago.

Out now

I don't know the exact start date that the Mercury Prize is using for their assessment period for 2011 contenders; but as the 2010 shortlist was announced on July 20, let's assume it's from Monday 19 July. I Am Kloot's Sky at Night, which was shortlisted for the 2010 award, came out on July 5, and there's usually a week of Mercury limbo (which may well have done for Lily Allen's debut LP, Alright, Still, which was released on 14 July 2006). So 19 July would seem a sensible start date.

Tellingly, though, little likely to pique the judging panel's interest was released on either 19 July or the following week. Mount Kimbie (pictured above) could possibly impress with their gently enrapturing dubstep-evolved beats, their debut LP Crooks & Lovers recommended by Rob da Bank and Gilles Peterson, and Professor Green's Alive Till I'm Dead might find itself in a berth occupied in previous years by domestic urban acts like The Streets and Dizzee Rascal. Released on 26 July was Tom Jones' covers collection Praise & Blame - but while it accumulated its share of positive reviews (even if the BBC's assessment wasn't quite so kind), Sir Tom is perhaps a little too beyond the Mercury's intention to feature innovative, culturally significant music in its shortlist. Also, his age could count against him: he's got 18 years on Paul Weller, 2010's oldest nominee.

August and September offer contenders of greater pedigree, among them past nominees. Manic Street Preachers have been shortlisted twice before, for Everything Must Go (1996) and This Is My Truth Tell Me Yours (1999). Their tenth studio album, Postcards from a Young Man, could see them scoop the Mercury at the third time of asking, which would certainly please bassist Nicky Wire, who recently told me that he was disappointed that their acclaimed previous set, Journal for Plague Lovers, was not amongst 2009's last 12. Isobel Campbell and Mark Lanegan's Ballad of the Broken Seas earned a nomination in 2006, and the pair's new album, Hawk, is arguably their best yet. With the heavier end of rock earning recognition in 2010 courtesy of Biffy Clyro's presence on the shortlist, could veteran metal-heads Iron Maiden be a contender in 2011? Their 15th studio album, The Final Frontier, was called "a remarkable achievement" by BBC reviewer Greg Moffitt.

Klaxons won in 2007, for their debut Myths of the Near Future; but such has been the general indifference towards its follow-up, Surfing the Void, that it's hard to see the four-piece featuring in 2011's Mercury equation. A better bet, in terms of quirky indie-rock, is Everything Everything's debut, Man Alive, which despite a panning on influential US blog Pitchfork has attracted lots of acclaim in the UK. The BBC's Alix Buscovic called it "wilfully eccentric and endlessly entertaining", and while it's certainly not to everyone's tastes, it's an ambitious collection that deserves respect. Similarly worthy of consideration by the Mercury panel: Skream's mainstream-courting second long-player Outside the Box; BBC Sound of 2010 fourth-placers Hurts' debut album Happiness; The Count and Sinden's wonderfully boisterous Mega Mega Mega; jazz artist Soweto Kinch's engaging third LP The New Emancipation; 2008 nominee Robert Plant's solid and studied Band of Joy; and east London rapper Kano's well-received fourth LP Method to the Maadness.

Out soon

Best start with the heavyweights. Bryan Ferry's Olympia album, out late October, is already being talked up as a great return from the Roxy Music frontman. His first album of original material since 2002 also features contributions from Radiohead's Johnny Greenwood. Like Tom Jones, though, Ferry (at 64) is very much the wrong side of attractively youthful - perhaps not the best winner for influential buyers with pocket money to burn. 2005 winners Antony and the Johnsons release Swanlights, their fourth studio album, on 11 October - could they feature again come the 2011 shortlist? Also out on 11 October is Belle & Sebastian's ...Write About Love LP - the Scots last featured on a Mercury shortlist in 2004, for Dear Catastrophe Waitress. 2003 winner Dizzee Rascal used to be a member of the Wiley-fronted Roll Deep, and the London grime collective release their new album, Winner Stays On, in November. Then there's the small matter of a new Brian Eno record - the hugely influential composer's debut for Warp Records, Small Craft on a Milk Sea, is due on 15 November.

Looking at the more commercially established side of British urban talent, forthcoming sets from Tinie Tempah (pictured above) and Tinchy Stryder could well be considered for shortlist inclusion. The former, with a number one single already to his name, releases his debut Disc-Overy in October; the latter, with two number one singles in the bag, reveals his third collection in November, the aptly titled Third Strike. Dubstep supergroup Magnetic Man - comprising Skream, Benga and Artwork - release their eponymous debut album on 4 October, and it's certain to be a contender. One of its contributing vocalists, Katy B, is also preparing her own album, in collaboration with past Mercury winner Ms Dynamite (who also guests on the Magnetic Man LP). A more leftfield dance scene selection is London duo DarkStar's debut long-player, North, released 18 October. Offering a glossier take on Mount Kimbie's scattered beats, it's an outsider worth keeping eyes and ears on, especially as it's released through the same label as 2008-nominated dubstep artist Burial's Untrue, Hyperdub.

Glasgow's The Phantom Band were forecast by several critics to feature on 2009's Mercury shortlist for their debut Checkmate Savage, and the sextet's follow-up, The Wants, is released on 18 October. Turning thoughts to folk records that could feature, the multi-award-winning Bellowhead, an 11-piece group founded by fiddler Jon Boden and melodeon player John Spiers, release their third album Hedonism in October. Sticking to folk, Richard Thompson's Dream Attic, released back in August, is the ex-Fairport Convention man's most interesting release for several years, consisting of brand-new material captured in a live setting; and Scottish collective The Burns Unit, featuring King Creosote and Emma Pollock, could also be contenders with their superb Side Show LP. And should classical music return to the shortlist (pigs might fly), Sir Simon Rattle's forthcoming take on The Nutcracker is sure to be a high-profile release worthy of consideration.

Out sometime between now and then, hopefully

And this is where the crystal ball really gets murky. There's still no release date set for Late of the Pier's overdue follow-up to their dazzling debut, 2008's Fantasy Black Channel - an album that quite incredibly did not feature on 2009's shortlist. I stand by what I wrote a year ago: LOTP should be a serious force in the next Mercury shortlist, should their second LP match (or better) the highs of their exemplary first. Sadly, at the moment it seems members are concentrating on side-projects; here's hoping they get back together soon, in time for next year's prize.

Radiohead (pictured above) have never won the Mercury, although they've been shortlisted four times - for OK Computer (how did this lose out to Roni Size/Reprazent's New Forms, really?), Amnesiac, Hail to the Thief and In Rainbows. Frontman Thom Yorke was shortlisted for his solo collection, The Eraser, in 2006. Could it be their turn in 2011? It's certainly a strong possibility, should an eighth studio effort see the light of day before July next year. Guitarist Ed O'Brien has told 6 Music that their sessions are shaping up to produce "the best record we've ever made". It could yet emerge in 2010, but don't go holding your breath. Do, however, keep those fingers and toes crossed.

2006 winners Arctic Monkeys are in the studio now, and hope to have their fourth album ready in 2011 - whether it'll be before July remains to be seen. Another previous winner busy with a new record is PJ Harvey, who scooped the Mercury in 2001 for her sublime fifth studio album Stories from the City, Stories from the Sea. Regular collaborator Mick Harvey has confirmed that the as-yet-untitled collection should be released in February 2011. And this year's victors, The xx, could even feature in next year's shortlist. The trio are keen to crack on with their second album, and may use their prize money to build a studio in which to craft a successor to their spellbinding debut. Can they turn a new album around in time? Quite possibly.

My pick for 2011

If Late of the Pier don't quicken their creative step, the Manics are overlooked and debuts are steered clear of after two successive wins for first albums, then it has to be Radiohead for me. It seems amazing that the most celebrated British band of the past decade-plus has never walked away with the Mercury Prize, and given their position as continual innovators it seems unlikely that their eighth album will lean on any of their previous seven for key compositional inspiration. The only certainty with any new Radiohead record, since OK Computer, has been to expect the unexpected; but it's surely a no-brainer that their next will feature on the 2011 shortlist, and unlikely that (m)any other albums pitched against it will be as forward-thinking and genuinely inspirational.

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But what's your Mercury Prize pick for 2011? Is it one of the above-mentioned LPs expected to make some kind of impression on the domestic music scene, or another collection that I've not touched upon? Leave your suggestions and recommendations in our comments section below...