Non-communicable diseases - EdexcelCausal mechanisms

Non-communicable diseases are not transferred between people, eg cancer, diabetes, genetic and neurological disorders and heart disease. Risk factors increase the chances of developing these diseases.

Part ofCombined ScienceHealth, disease and the development of medicines

Causal mechanisms

Correlation

Scientists look for patterns in data.

Research has established links between cancer and various , chemicals produced in the body, or that enter the human body, and chemicals in the environment. Scientists have established several causal mechanisms for these .

Below is an example of how the risk factor of smoking has been studied.

Historically, in the UK, a pattern can be seen between the number of people who smoke cigarettes and the number of smoking related deaths.

Graph showing estimated proportion of smokers from 2011 to 2019

As the number of people who smoke cigarettes has decreased over the years, the incidence of smoking related deaths has decreased also. Note that there is a time lag, but cancer usually takes some years to develop.

There is a clear association, called a , between the variables.

With cancer and other non-communicable diseases, scientists have found correlations.

Correlation and cause

If there is a correlation between a particular factor and an outcome, it does not mean that the factor necessarily causes the outcome. Scientists must look for a possible mechanism by which the factor could be the likely cause.

In the case of lung cancer, analyses of cigarette smoke have shown that at least 70 of the chemicals present in smoke will cause cancer in laboratory animals which establishes a causal link.