By Nyta Mann BBC News Online political correspondent

That Tony Blair is confident enough to publicly declare that by September he expects the government to have halved the number of asylum applications is a sign of just how tough asylum seekers can expect things to get.

I would like to see us reduce it by 30 or 40% in the next few months and I think by September we should have it halved Tony Blair

Either that or it is evidence of just how deeply rattled he is by his government's apparent inability to so far make any real impact on rising numbers of asylum applications - and by the prospect of the political capital the Conservatives may reap.

In fact, a combination of both is what lies behind his announcement of this latest key target.

Its timing certainly has a lot to do with a desire to pre-empt the awkward news expected later this month that asylum figures topped 100,000 in 2002.

Tougher time for all refugees

But tough on asylum seekers it certainly will be.

A raft of stringent new measures now coming into play will undoubtedly serve to make it much harder for escapees from persecution and economic migrants alike to make to Britain's shores.

Among them is the controversial expansion of the so-called "safe list", those countries from which asylum applications are automatically presumed to be "clearly unfounded" - the equivalent of asylum seekers being deemed guilty until proved innocent, refugee groups point out.

Another is that from next week all holders of refugee travel documents will require a visa before coming to the UK - an impossible expectation given the dangerous chaos that fleeing a country entails, protest campaigners.

But it is setting the bar high indeed to declare that numbers will halve in seven months.

Echo of street crime pledge

Setting what is, in effect, a quota in this way appears to fly in the face of the very concept of asylum, the need for which is way beyond the reach or control of Whitehall or Westminster.

In short, unless he has some special prescience on the subject beyond the looming war with Iraq, how can Mr Blair pledge to halve a figure that he doesn't yet know?

His announcement of a sudden new target matches his approach to street crime last year.

That too was an issue he found himself seriously vulnerable on following a sharp rise in muggings and robberies, clashing badly with his oft-repeated promise to be "tough on crime".

He resorted to a direct pledge, with deadline attached, that he would have the figures turning in his favour within five months.

The deadline was, after a fashion, met - though that judgment did depend on interpretation of exactly what "under control" meant.

Mr Blair's target on asylum applications is rather more precise benchmark against which to judge success or failure. Which also, of course, makes it a greater hostage to fortune.