By Mark Davies BBC News Online political reporter

The sweaty Labour official slapping backs in one of Blackpool's conference hotels was clearly puzzled - and perhaps a little alarmed.

"Apparently the euro is our destiny," he joshed with a colleague before heading off towards the toilets. He didn't seem convinced.

That's why the euro is not just about our economy but our destiny Tony Blair

That was back in October, a few hours after Tony Blair's keynote conference speech in which he buoyed pro-euro campaigners with a powerful message of support.

The UK, he had said, had to be at the heart of the European debate as a "vigorous, confident" player - "leading in Europe not limping along several paces behind".

"That's why the euro is not just about our economy but our destiny," Mr Blair went on.

"We should only join the euro if the economic tests are met. That is clear. But if the tests are passed, we go for it."

Rife

A few weeks later and the prime minister was more circumspect. In a speech billed as his "landmark" vision of a "new Europe" in Cardiff, all Mr Blair had to say on the euro was:

"On the euro we should of course join if the economic conditions are right. A single currency with a single market for Europe makes economic sense."

A change in tone? Or just semantics?

Blair set out his view in his Cardiff speech

Well, such is the nature of the debate on the euro - and if 2002 was bad for fevered speculation on one of the biggest issues facing the UK, 2003 will be rife with rumour.

Setting aside the possibility of war in Iraq, the euro will dominate the political undercurrent in 2003 - referendum or no referendum.

The big date, of course, is 7 June, by which time the Treasury must rule on Gordon Brown's famous five tests on the euro.

But it won't be the only key moment of the year.

Blueprint

Euro campaigners on all sides will be watching developments in the eurozone too. Will the growth and stability pact - the rules which euro countries must abide by - be reformed?

Will the Convention on Europe's future come up with a blueprint which falls along Mr Blair's inter-governmental approach rather than the federalist aspirations of Romano Prodi?

Will the European Central Bank be reformed? Will the Swedes vote to adopt the euro in their referendum on 14 September?

Will there be signs of improvement in eurozone economies?

Economic reform, a vision of Europe along the lines set out by Mr Blair in his "landmark" speech in Cardiff and a Swedish "yes" vote, would all make it easier for the prime minister to win a UK referendum.

At a meeting with business leaders recently, Mr Blair is said to have accepted that the Swedish vote would be crucial to his hopes of winning a poll.

That seems to suggest he's aiming - as some Labour MPs believe - for an autumn referendum after a short campaign.

Difference of opinion?

But issues like economic reform and the Convention are unlikely to have been resolved by the time the Treasury makes its ruling on the five tests.

And whether the deliberations on the future of Europe by Valery Giscard D'Estaing have really permeated the consciousness of the Great British Public seems a tad unlikely.

So for now, as shown by more speculation in the last two days of 2002, we can expect more of the same.

In the run-up to the big decision in June, there will be endless stories on Mr Blair's desire or otherwise to call a referendum.

Every dot and comma of speeches and documents from the Treasury will be scrutinised.

Betting

There will be more stories about the infamous difference of opinion between the Mr Blair and Mr Brown.

Not much of it will really inform the debate on the euro - the decision the prime minister is said to hope will seal his place in history.

But it's certainly true that for all the other voices in the euro debate, theirs are the only two which really matter.

The current betting is that there won't be a poll in 2003 - but that could have changed by next week.

It is 30 years since the UK joined the European Economic Community. That episode provoked fierce debate - the UK's euro question will be no less intense in 2003.

And the irony is that in 12 months time, it's quite feasible that voters will be no nearer making their historic choice at the ballot box.