Franz Fischler, who is set to rule on whether he thinks the full ban should be implemented, launched a stinging attack on governments and industry for not heading the crisis off sooner.

Unless [the committee] says anything different, which is very unlikely, I can see no other solution in the short term than to propose for 2003 a zero catch for cod, haddock and whiting

Franz Fischler

"I don't want to say 'I told you so'. But it is galling, after repeatedly warning of the dire consequences of inaction, to see our worst fears realised," he said.

European scientists recommended last week that all North Sea cod fishing should be banned, to save the species from extinction.

Haddock and whiting catches could also be banned, because cod are accidentally caught in the same nets.

European officials are thought almost certain to heed the advice, despite a wave of criticism of fishermen, who say their industry will be devastated.

Fischler blames governments for not acting sooner

But Mr Fischler, in an uncompromising message to a Brussels news conference, said countries affected had only themselves to blame - for over-fishing and ignoring previous warnings.

"It is clear that in the absence of effective conservation and control measures, a number of fish stocks, in particular cod, are being persistently overfished," he said.

"Previous data were distorted by misreporting of catches and illegal landings. We now have to recognise that the state of these stocks has never been worse."

The European committee with responsibility for deciding what to recommend will give its opinion on 11 November.

Mr Fischler's own recommendations will then be put to European ministers in December for a final decision.

"Unless [the committee] says anything different, which is very unlikely, I can see no other solution in the short term than to propose for 2003 a zero catch for cod, haddock and whiting," he said.

Deep cuts in plaice catches were also likely, he said.

"Political inaction will not save our fish stocks or our fishing industry. What is required is courage and vision," he said.

Worst-hit countries

Scotland and Ireland would suffer a "tremendous impact", he said, with Denmark, Sweden, Germany and Belgium also set to suffer. Extra cash help was being provided, he pledged.

"The commission is determined not to leave the fishermen affected by potential hardship to cope on their own," he said.

Mr Fischler said he was continuing to assess less dramatic solutions, such as large cuts in fishing quotas, and better monitoring of catches.

The Common Fisheries Policy has been far too slow to reform and in fact is the root cause of many of fishing's current woes

Neil Parish British Euro-MP

But he said it was almost tempting to say "forget it" about the future of cod fishing.

Critics hit back at Mr Fischler's accusations.

"It is rather rich of Commissioner Fischler to blame EU governments for the problem," said British Conservative Euro MP Neil Parish.

"The Common Fisheries Policy has been far too slow to reform and in fact is the root cause of many of fishing's current woes."

Hamish Morrison, chief executive of the Scottish Fishermen's Federation, attacked the 20-year-old Common Fisheries Policy.

Mr Morrison said that fishermen were the only group that had been excluded from fisheries management by politicians, scientists and the European Commission.

He said: "It's a failure of fisheries management of cataclysmic proportions."

European fish quotas have already been slashed to try to reverse the decline in cod stocks. Cuts of 55% were agreed last year.

The BBC's Janet Barrie in Brussels says it seems almost certain now that the European Commission will follow the scientists' advice and recommend the most draconian cutbacks yet.

Fishermen's leaders say 10-20,000 jobs will go if the cuts are implemented.