The lockout which has shut down 29 ports on the US West Coast could trigger a recession in East Asia, investment bank Morgan Stanley has warned.

In a note sent to clients, Morgan Stanley economist Andy Xie said the dispute risked "horrendous" consequences if it lasts longer than a month.

The consequences for the global economy are horrendous

Andy Xie Morgan Stanley

Over $1bn (�640m) worth of goods pass into the US by ship from East Asia every day, he said, and a prolonged disruption could ravage the "just-in-time" production systems used across Asia.

The weak recovery seen in many Asian countries is export-led, and a slump in sales overseas to the US, by far the biggest market, could cause serious damage.

Japan's carmakers are keen to take advantage of continuing high demand for automobiles in the US, but are now looking at temporary closures of their US plants as parts imported from factories in Asia grow scarce.

Going into reverse?

The latest figures show that almost every Asian exporter bar Singapore and Indonesia has seen a sharp slowdown in deliveries to the US over the past two years.

But in 2002 the slowdown has abated.

Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea and China are showing export growth that in some cases is reaching 10% in a single three-month period.

Los Angeles alone normally brings in more than 300 containers a day of furniture alone, while computer equipment fills another 150.

That is now grinding to a halt as the containers stack up on the West Coast.

"If the port shutdown lasts, it will inflict severe damage on the region's economies," wrote Mr Xie.

"Indeed, I believe that if the shutdown lasts more than a month, East Asia would be in recession.

"The consequences for the global economy are horrendous."

The lockout at the ports involves about 10,500 workers, who had been working to the strict terms of their contracts to get management back to the negotiating table.