Analysis
By Steve Schifferes BBC News Online

It may only be the mid-term elections, but the race for the Democratic nomination for the 2004 presidency has already begun.

Indeed, many observers argue that the official race will open the day after the polls close on Tuesday 5 November.

The results of the mid-term elections will also determine the strength or weakness of several of the key contenders for that presidential nomination.

Dick Gephardt: Difficult to dislodge Republicans

Both the Senate majority leader, Tom Daschle, and the House minority leader, Dick Gephardt, were hoping that electoral success would kick-start their presidential campaigns.

That now looks unlikely.

The hopes that Dick Gephardt could lead a triumphant Democratic party into capturing control of the House of Representatives, and thus controlling the Congress, are now fading.

It appears that despite Mr Gephardt's vigorous fund-raising and campaigning efforts, it is going to be a difficult year to dislodge the six House Republicans that it would take to change the balance of power.

Difficult task

This is only partly because of the Iraq war effect, which has neutralised the Democrat's advantage on economic issues - Gephardt endorsed the war in a deal with Bush in September.

Click here for Dick Gephardt profile

It is also because it is increasingly difficult to unseat incumbents in House races, because in the small-sized House seats extra money - in the form of campaign contributions - gives most incumbents an unbeatable advantage.

Tom Daschle: Senate race a key indicator

Mr Daschle faces an even more discouraging outcome, if the Democrats - who now control the Senate by one vote - lose control of the upper chamber.

That would mean many of Mr Daschle's closest associates - including the junior senator from his own state of South Dakota - will probably have been defeated, calling into question his own electoral popularity.

Click here for Tom Daschle profile

On the other hand, a big election victory for California governor Gray Davis could revive talk of his presidential - or vice-presidential ambitions.

An upset win for the black, but moderate Democrat Ron Kirk in the Texas Senate race could give an even bigger boost to his chances in the 2008 presidential battle.

Click here for Ron Kirk profile

The next generation

Both figures, along with some others like North Carolina's John Edwards, are probably in the next generation of Democratic leaders.

John Edwards: Telegenic

Senator Edwards is earnest and telegenic - and a favourite of Washington's political dinner parties as a potential candidate for 2004 or 2008.

He made his money as a courtroom lawyer so he is assured in public and as a senator has specialised in issues affecting people's daily lives, like health.

His appeal seems to be that he is new and untainted by scandal and he comes over as concerned.

But his is inexperienced as well.

For now, the big question is whether former vice-president Al Gore wants a rematch with George W Bush.

Mr Gore - after a period of silence following his narrow defeat by Mr Bush - now sounds more partisan, and more like he wants to run, than ever.

Ron Kirk: On Bush territory

He will face a difficult task in defeating Mr Bush this time, especially if the president can be portrayed as just having won the Iraq war.

But his party would find it difficult to refuse him the right to a rematch, although many would balk at including the right-wing Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman as his running mate again.

Mr Lieberman - who, like Mr Clinton was bitterly critical of Mr Gore's strategy during the election - is also considering a presidential bid himself.

Click here for Joe Lieberman profile

Strong figure

Also weighing up his chances is veteran Democratic Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, a former Vietnam War veteran.

John Kerry: Vietnam veteran

Senator Kerry is another strong figure on television, with good looks and a thick mass of greying hair.

He is a medal-winning Vietnam veteran which improves his credentials with conservatives but he is a liberal on social issues.

He is married to a Heinz heiress, with a fine Georgetown mansion, so there would be plenty of money for a run at the White House.

He is, though, a bit reserved and might not like the rough and tumble of a presidential campaign.

In a way, a Gore-Bush rematch would be as convenient for the Democrats as the Republicans - leaving the way clear for a decisive new challenger to emerge in 2008.

By then, the economy - and the growing US budget deficit - might have become enough of an issue to unseat the Republicans.

Click here for Al Gore profile