New figures show that Guernsey's economy is in decline for the first time in decades. The island's economy grew throughout the 1990s, and growth peaked in 2000, since when it has levelled out.
However new predicted figures for 2004 from the States Policy and research unit suggest last year the economy shrunk in real terms.
The President of the Chamber of Commerce is warning the States to heed the warning signs and cut spending.
Mark Trenchard says he believes the most worrying trend is that States spending is still high despite the poor economic climate.