By Katie Smith BBC News Online entertainment staff

You've had a hard day and all you want to do is slump on the sofa and relax in front of the box. Well, make the most of it while you can because - according to a report - that particular occupation could soon be a thing of the past.

You're more likely to be fiddling with your next-generation mobile phone or playing with your PDA in 10 years time, apparently.

The report, published by Bournemouth Media School, brought together leading industry experts to consider what UK broadcasting could look like by 2012.

A panel looked at four possible future scenarios, each dependent on the economy and the government of the day.

TV Centre could be put out of business

The most radical of the four sees a future in which the BBC has haemorrhaged support because viewers have become far too technology-savvy to be happy with run-of-the-mill TV.

According to the "Goodbye TV" scenario, PDAs and next generation mobile phones would, by this time, be in every briefcase and pocket.

In the home, new technology would be used increasingly to view DVDs and access games and TV consumption would have dropped to an all-time low.

The most likely outcome - according to the report - would be that, within five years, the BBC's TV channels would close altogether. Its radio and online services would thrive, however.

But is this really likely?

Not according to Bournemouth University spokesman Charles Elder.

"There is something homely about television, something comforting," he said. "I can't see people turning their back on television just yet.

"In 40 years time my grandchildren may have a very different view, however."

Worst case scenario

Another of the four scenarios sees the full potential of digital technologies realised.

This is a world in which there has been sustained economic growth.

Consumers have become wealthier, better educated and more liberal in their views.

Broadband Britain has arrived - and the digital switchover achieved.

This scenario sees the BBC retain its public service broadcaster status, but predicts that public support will have drifted away.

Big Brother for sale: Channel 4 could be privatised

The worst case scenario sees a back-to-basics future in which a prolonged recession, fuelled by tension in the Middle East, has led to marked social unrest.

Conventional TV remains a key part of people's lives and the switch to broadband Britain has been abandoned.

The BBC is the only UK player able to sustain investment and Channel 4 receives part of the licence fee - in return for cutting its commercial ventures.

The fourth, and final, scenario, is perhaps the most likely.

It predicts moderate economic growth and a strongly consumerist society.

In this society there has been a patchwork take-up of digital services - with 20% of households still tuning in to analogue TV.

The BBC is still a main player and Channel 4 is privatised, brought out by a global conglomerate.

"When we asked people which scenario they felt was the most likely, they said this one," said Christine Daymon, who helped write the report.

Dominant

Significantly, in two of the four scenarios, Channel 4 is privatised. In another it shares the licence fee with the BBC.

Currently it is a government-owned corporation which supports itself.

By contrast, all four scenarios expected a licence-fee funded BBC to remain a dominant player in the medium term, but identified a longer-term threat to the licence-fee with digital take-up.

"The point of this work is to encourage the industry to anticipate change, rather than just react to it," said Roger Laughton, head of Bournemouth Media School.

"Thinking harder doesn't mean you can predict what is going to happen," he added.

"What it does mean is that you will be better prepared for it."