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Last Updated: Sunday, 27 July, 2003, 02:34 GMT 03:34 UK
Analysis: Symptom of malaise
Rebel soldier near 'bomb' placed at Manila complex
The mutiny may be a symptom of wider unease
The mutineers who seized a prestigious commercial complex in Manila had little chance of making headway without public support but could have been a symptom of wider problems in the Philippines.

There appears to have been little sympathy for the group among the public, writes John McLean, the BBC's correspondent in the city.

In this respect, the mutineers might have learnt from the country's long history of military coups, he says.

But if Sunday's action appeared highly unlikely to bring down the Philippine Government, it was nonetheless evidence of malaise in both the military and the country as a whole, Dr James Putzel, a South East Asia expert at the London School of Economics (LSE), told the BBC.

President Gloria Arroyo may have been concentrating too much on her role in the US-led global war against terror and neglecting domestic affairs, he says.

I think this protest represents general disgruntlement in the armed forces but also a deeper malaise in Philippine society
Dr James Putzel
Our correspondent reports that no military coup in the history of the Philippines has succeeded without popular support.

The coup which deposed President Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 succeeded only because hundreds of thousands of ordinary people took to the streets to protect the plotters.

By contrast, a series of attempted coups during the presidency of Corazon Aquino, Mr Marcos's successor, got nowhere partly because ordinary Filipinos became tired of the political instability these attempted coups created.

Then, as now, the majority of the armed forces remained loyal to the incumbent president.

The armed forces wield great influence in Philippine politics, our correspondent concludes, but the military tends to use its influence to maintain political stability rather than upset the established order and this tendency in most cases reflects the popular will.

Wider malaise

"I think that there is a cause of disaffection and President Arroyo is reaping a little bit what she has sown," Dr Putzel told the BBC's World Today programme.

She came to power on the heels of a revolt against the incumbent president of the day, Joseph Estrada, and only holds office because the military stood against him and helped to catapult her into power.

Having allied herself closely to US President George W Bush's war on terror, the LSE expert says, she has asked her troops to fight Islamic militants in the southern Philippines under very difficult conditions while paying little attention to their livelihood.

"I think this protest represents general disgruntlement in the armed forces but also a deeper malaise in Philippine society," he says.

In focusing on the war on terror, she appears to have paid insufficient attention to the Philippines' problems of development, poverty and inequality, he adds.

Dr Putzel says that events in Manila should also be seen in the context of the recent dramatic escape of a top terror suspect, Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi, from a Manila high-security prison on 14 July.

On the one hand, the LSE expert says, the government seems to have played up this weekend's revolt to take the public eye off the jailbreak.

On the other, given the apparent disaffection in the armed forces, there may have been some collaboration in the escape in order to embarrass the president, Dr Putzel told the BBC.


SEE ALSO:
Manila rebels given ultimatum
27 Jul 03  |  Asia-Pacific
Analysis: Arroyo's loss of appeal
30 Dec 02  |  Asia-Pacific
Profile: Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi
14 Jul 03  |  Asia-Pacific
Country profile: The Philippines
09 Jul 03  |  Country profiles
Timeline: The Philippines
18 Jul 03  |  Country profiles


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