Jonathan Head BBC South East Asia correspondent

Gloria Arroyo has failed the most crucial test of any Filipino president. She has failed to be loved by her people.

Most South East Asian politicians are uncomfortable dealing with the foreign media but Gloria Macapagal Arroyo seems to relish the brief encounters with the press that her schedule allows.

She has statistics in abundance at her fingertips, and well-rehearsed sound-bites for pretty much every question.

She prides herself in being a hands-on president, who works into the small hours of the morning (unlike her notoriously unfocused predecessor Joseph Estrada who used to spend his nights partying with friends).

She is a respected, US-trained economist who brought talented people into her cabinet to replace Mr Estrada's cronies.

Tough image

She has tried everything to demonstrate her tough approach towards crime - even appearing on a magazine cover with key ministers three months ago dressed as the characters in the Hollywood blockbuster Men In Black.

Arroyo could never replace former leader Estrada in the hearts of the poor

All to no avail. Gloria Arroyo has failed the most crucial test of any Filipino president. She has failed to be loved by her people.

The praise Mrs Arroyo has received for her courageous decision to stand down in 2004 is double-edged.

No-one is rushing forward to beg her to reconsider; contrast that with the tears and theatrics which accompanied the announcement by Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammad this year that he too will soon be stepping down.

'Cold and unengaging'

Part of the reason is personality.

There is something cold and unengaging about Gloria Arroyo, about her mastery of economics and statistics (which in any case are rarely a good guide to reality in this part of the world).

As a member of the moneyed elite in one of the world's most unequal countries, and as the daughter of a previous president, she had a mountain to climb to fill the place in the hearts of tens of millions of impoverished Filipinos once occupied by the shambling one-time actor, Joseph Estrada.

Filipinos have with good reason become very cynical about their political representatives in the chaotic and violent democracy which emerged in the mid-1980s.

In the absence of any real improvements in their lives, they expect only to be entertained by their presidents - a task right up Mr Estrada's street - and not to be preached to.

Policy failures

Mrs Arroyo's failure has been compounded by her inability to make progress where it really mattered to most of her people - in the economy and on crime.

The country now faces a record budget deficit, thanks to the stubborn refusal by wealthy Filipinos to pay taxes.

And violent crime, notably kidnappings by well-connected gangs, and bombings by Muslim or Communist rebels, have undermined her image as a tough, can-do president.

In the Philippines you might be better served by projecting yourself as a can't-do president.

The self-interested and corrupt business elite; the bitterly divided political factions; the sheer messiness and violence of the country - even compared to its South East Asian neighbours - make the Philippines almost ungovernable.

Faced with several more popular rivals for the top job, including former Foreign Secretary Teofista Guingona and respected former Education Secretary Raul Roco, Gloria Arroyo seems to have understood that her place in history will be better assured by bowing out when her term of office ends in 2004.