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Guscott's predictions

Jeremy Guscott
By Jeremy Guscott
BBC Sport rugby union expert

(All fixtures are to be played on 24-25 October)

SATURDAY

Bath v Newcastle

Bath v Newcastke

My old club host Newcastle in the first game on Saturday as the Guinness Premiership returns after two weekends of awesome Heineken Cup action.

Neither side are in the best of form in the league, with Newcastle yet to win and Bath having won only once themselves.

Bath have thrown away games in two of their last three outings, against Stade Francais last weekend and Harlequins before that in the league.

606: DEBATE
JS

Bath have got to understand that when they are in a winning position late in the game they have got to stop playing with the ball in their own half and should kick it into opposition territory and let them make the mistakes.

The performance I saw Newcastle put in against Leicester suggests they have enough about them not to be struggling against relegation, but I can't see them winning after a long trip down to Bath.

Verdict: Bath by more than 10 points.


Gloucester v Wasps

Gloucester v Wasps

Gloucester were superb in the opening game against Bath but since then they have struggled and I'm at a bit of a loss as to why.

Premiership games have been very physical - lots of macho attempts to run through people rather than around people - and I think Gloucester need to try and do more of the latter.

They also need to get it to Nicky Robinson, who is a good tactical fly-half, and get him to put them in a good position.

They will win matches through good defence rather than attack, which goes against my nature, but they need to take a leaf out of Saracens' book and play it simple.

Wasps are way ahead of where they normally are at this stage of the season, in third, and their last half a dozen games have been very good.

Even without the likes of Danny Cipriani I expect them to go to Kingsholm confident of victory, which is not something that happens very often when you travel to Gloucester.

Verdict: Wasps by more than 10 points.


London Irish v Leicester

London Irish v Leicester

As I said before, games this season have been all about brutality and people have just got carried away smashing the ball up.

There's not been enough thought and the modern game is very cerebral - you have to make smart decisions, and Irish are one of the sides that can do that.

They have the ability to play an all-court game - to smash it up when necessary but play with width through the likes of Sailosi Tagicakibau as well.

When Irish are on top form they are a very difficult side to beat and even though you know Leicester will be up there come the end of the season, I think they still have too many injuries to go to the Madejski and win.

Verdict: Irish by three points.


Northampton v Sale

Northampton v Sale

Since Northampton returned to the Premiership, Franklin's Gardens has become a place that teams don't like to travel to and I'll back them to bounce back from their Heineken Cup loss in Perpignan last time out by winning on Saturday.

I expect them to put in a big performance against a struggling Sale side, albeit one that edged past Cardiff Blues at the weekend.

It is unfortunate for them that they have to travel to face a side I think will certainly be in the top three come the end of the season.

Shane Geraghty, who is more than likely to be in the England side, is on fire at the moment and they also have the likes of Ben Foden and Jon Clarke in their ranks.

Charlie Hodgson will keep Sale in the game because he can keep the scoreboard ticking over, but Saints at home will be too strong.

Verdict: Northampton by more than 10 points.


Worcester v Harlequins

Worcester v Harlequins

I like Worcester. Wingers Miles Benjamin and Marcel Garvey, who is sadly out for three weeks with a hand injury, have been on fire and they also have Chris Latham at full-back to complete one of the most exciting back threes in the Premiership.

When Worcester get the ball to their wingers they frighten teams and at home they are a dogged, determined team.

Sixways is one of those grounds teams don't like travelling to. It's lovely but small and maybe that's why it can be slightly intimidating.

Worcester will be in your face and tackle all day and this year if they get the opportunity they bang it out to the wings, who are both very quick and the opposition will struggle to catch them.

Verdict: Worcester to win six points.


SUNDAY

Saracens v Leeds

Saracens v Leeds

It will be interesting to see how many points Sarries win by - sorry Leeds but I don't see you breaking your duck.

The question is, can Sarries break out of the limited mould they have created this season against a side like Leeds?

The style they are playing at the moment will certainly put them in the top half of the Premiership come the end of the season but I have said before that if teams can match them in their areas of strength - the kicking game and the set piece - then Saracens will struggle.

But for the time being their unbeaten run will continue because they won't lose to Leeds on Sunday.

Verdict: Saracens by 15 points at least.

Jeremy Guscott was talking to BBC Sport's James Standley



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see also
Jeremy Guscott Q&A
21 Oct 09 |  Rugby Union
Harlequins 13-11 Bath
03 Oct 09 |  English
Leeds 10-26 Gloucester
04 Oct 09 |  English
Newcastle 15-22 Saracens
04 Oct 09 |  English
Sale 8-11 London Irish
02 Oct 09 |  English
Wasps 20-15 Northampton
04 Oct 09 |  English
Leicester 19-14 Worcester
03 Oct 09 |  English
Guinness Premiership Ins and Outs
25 Aug 09 |  English
Guinness Premiership fixtures
09 Aug 06 |  Fixtures


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