By Andrew Benson Motorsport editor

Will Schumacher face a genuine threat in Hungary?

Michael Schumacher will break his own record of 11 victories in a year if he wins the Hungarian Grand Prix - but he may find it his toughest race of 2004.

No-one is expecting a repeat of last year, when Schumacher was lapped as he finished in eighth place.

But the characteristics of the dusty Hungaroring give his rivals their best chance since Monaco of ending the German's astonishing run of form.

McLaren, BAR, Renault and Williams are all expecting a better shot at victory.

The tight and twisty Hungaroring, with its low-grip track surface and high ambient temperature, could have been designed to favour Ferrari's competitors.

In theory, it downplays the biggest strengths of Ferrari's car and its Bridgestone tyres, while helping out the Michelin rubber used by the other top teams.

We have to be quietly confident that we can have a good race in Hungary Jenson Button BAR dig in over Button

BAR, despite the blow of Jenson Button's decision to join Williams in 2005, will be confident after the Englishman's superb drive to second place from 13th on the grid at the German Grand Prix.

But on their recent revived form, McLaren must be favourite to push Ferrari hardest.

The new MP4-19B car has given Schumacher a serious fright at both the British and German Grands Prix.

And its abilities are particularly pronounced in slow corners and changing direction, two characteristics that are fundamental at the Hungaroring.

McLaren will have to up the operational performance of the team so that star driver Kimi Raikkonen is not vulnerable to the sort of unforgivable failure that led to his rear wing collapsing at Hockenheim.

But in terms of pace the car is the closest thing to a match for a Ferrari.

McLaren's new car has made Raikkonen a contender

Button's decision - and the way the news came out - means the atmosphere in the BAR pit will be icy despite the usual baking Budapest temperatures outside.

But the team will remain cautiously optimistic of putting up a reasonable fight at Hungary.

Jenson Button said: "I know we have some new parts that maybe we will use in Hungary that will help us and I think that we have made the correct tyre choice for Hungary.

"I think we have to be quietly confident that we can have a good race."

BAR, though, are likely to find themselves more concerned with their battle with Renault for second place in the constructors' championship.

Renault were the team to beat at the Hungaroring in 2003, and Fernando Alonso took the first - and so far only - victory of his career in commanding style.

But while Renault hold second place in the standings, their form has been somewhat up and down and it remains to be seen if they can be a force in Hungary.

Having said that, Alonso's team-mate Jarno Trulli won the Monaco Grand Prix, the only race this year to have been won by anyone but Schumacher, and on paper both drivers should be strong in Hungary.

Button drove well in Germany and is hopeful of more

"I think Hungary will suit our car, Spa as well, and we will go for the podium or victory if we have the possibility," Alonso said.

The cautious language employed by the Spaniard shows just how much the other teams have been affected by Ferrari's utter domination of this season.

Whatever the potential for an upset in Hungary, all the teams are painfully aware that Ferrari will remain the team to beat.

And it is difficult to shake off the sneaking suspicion that all the talk of the world champions facing a genuine threat at the Hungaroring is merely clutching at straws.

There were specific reasons why Ferrari struggled last year, and none of them still apply this season.

Alonso was untroubled on his way to victory last year

Last year, Ferrari had designed a car with a relatively long wheelbase, which was unsuited to the tight twists and turns at the Hungaroring.

And their Bridgestone tyres were no match for the rival Michelins on tracks with low-grip surfaces.

This year, by contrast, the Ferrari has a shorter wheelbase, and it has won in recent weeks at the two tracks that have similar sufaces to Hungary - France and Germany.

For all the hope that there might be a genuine battle for the lead this Sunday, the man most likely to be standing on top of the podium remains Michael Schumacher.