 McLeish must target seven more points to guarantee qualification |
Scotland's dream of qualifying for the Euro 2008 finals is very much alive following the 1-0 win in Paris over Group B rivals France. The top two teams from each group go through to the finals.
Seven points from the three remaining games will ensure that the young Scotland side will be heading to Austria and Switzerland next year.
However, the Scots have no easy games, with home ties against Ukraine and Italy and an away game in Georgia.
Scotland, Italy and France have all played nine games. The Scots lead Group B on 21 points, Italy lie in second place, just a point behind, and France have earned 19 points.
Ukraine, on 13 points, can attain a maximum of 25 points if they win their remaining four ties.
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If Oleg Blokhin's men did manage to pull off this feat, it's unlikely to be enough for the Ukrainians, as all three of their qualification rivals will be confident that they can surpass that points tally.
So, it looks like a three-horse race for the two Euro 200 spots.
For Scotland to guarantee qualification, Alex McLeish's side must gain seven points, taking them to 28 points.
If the Scots beat Ukraine and Georgia, and draw against Italy, it would leave them top of the group.
Even if France won their last three games and also finished on 28 points, Scotland would be above the French on the basis of the home-and-away triumphs.
If Italy draw with Scotland but win their other two matches, they would finish on 27 points.
Should Scotland lose to Italy, it is probable that the Azzurri would top the section on 29 points, given the likelihood that they will win their home matches against Georgia and the Faroes.
If McLeish, Andy Watson and Roy Aitken can guide the national team to wins over Ukraine and Georgia, the impact of a Hampden defeat to Italy could still be very costly.
If this transpired, Scotland would finish their campaign on 27 points and they would be hoping for the right result in France's last game in the group.
If, as predicted, France netted six points from their games against the Faroe Islands and Lithuania, Les Bleus would travel to Ukraine for their last match needing a victory to make it through to the finals - at the expense of Scotland.
Scotland's future, for once, lies in their own hands.
The remaining fixtures in Group B are:
13 October - Scotland v Ukraine, Italy v Georgia, Faroe Islands v France 17 October - Georgia v Scotland, Ukraine v Faroe Islands, France v Lithuania 17 November Lithuania v Ukraine, Scotland v Italy 21 November Italy v Faroe Islands, Georgia v Lithuania, Ukraine v France
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