BBC Sportmotorsport

By Steve Parrish BBC motorbikes commentator

Rossi was hard on himself after his mistake cost him at Assen

I fancy round 10 of the MotoGP championship in Germany this weekend to be a real humdinger of a race.

Casey Stoner is very much on a roll and at the moment he is dominating. But there is so little to choose between him, Valentino Rossi and Dani Pedrosa that it is almost a lottery as to who will win.

The Sachsenring circuit will probably suit Rossi and Pedrosa better than Stoner, but having said that Stoner's brilliant form is a leveller.

It's a very twisty circuit and Bridgestone had some real problems there last year, but I'm sure they will have learnt from that and addressed their issues.

Also, the forecast is for it to be wet - it seems to be wet everywhere we go this year!

Stoner's wins in the last two rounds, at Donington and Assen, have proved that Ducati have sorted the bike out and it seems to suit Casey better then ever before. He is going to take a lot of beating.

That is great news for Ducati, who are pretty much competing with one rider at the moment as Marco Melandri's efforts are, frankly, a waste of petrol.

GERMAN MOTOGP Qualifying: Saturday, BBCi (Freeview channel 301) and BBC Sport website, 1245-1400 125cc & 250cc races: BBC Two and BBC Sport website, 0945-1215 Race live: BBC Two and BBC Sport website, 1230-1400 Coverage on the BBC Sport website is available for UK users only MotoGP on the BBC

He is wobbling around and finishing last, while his team-mate is winning. I have never seen such a disparity between two riders. And I have never seen a rider of Melandri's calibre fall off the perch so quickly.

Melandri ended last season with some great results, and then this year got on the bike that he had dreamed of getting on and has done nothing ever since. He seems to have forgotten how to ride a motorcycle.

There's no confidence and clearly something doesn't suit him.

Apparently, Melandri will ride for Ducati in the next two races, at Sachsenring and Laguna Seca, and then he is off. Personally, I cannot believe he has lasted so long.

The best thing he can do is get on another motorbike and see if he has lost his confidence completely or whether it's just with the Ducati. The talk is he will be moving to Kawasaki - we shall see how he gets on there.

Sete Gibernau tested for Ducati at Magello and was only 4/10ths of a second slower than Stoner's lap record. So it proves that the bike does work for other people - and there's a strong chance Gibernau will be given the opportunity to show he can take his test speed into a race situation.

Until then it's up to Stoner to carry the team, and at the moment he is on fire.

But I expect Rossi to recover from his mistake last time out and come right back at the reigning world champion.

The trouble for Rossi is that it's not as easy as it used to be for him to win races. Back in the days when he was having his own way, he could get off the line in 5th or 6th place before biding his time, picking people off and then winning on the last lap.

Will Pedrosa be celebrating a world title at the end of October?

Nowadays, with Stoner and Pedrosa around he just cannot afford to do that. I think that was his problem in Assen, that he was desperate to prevent them getting away at the front on lap one that he made a mistake and crashed.

It will be in the back of his mind - he needs to qualify better and get off the line better - but I am backing him to recover in some style.

And of course Pedrosa will also be up there challenging for victory.

I am actually tipping the young Spaniard to win the championship this year. He is methodical, a strong finisher and he has Honda behind him.

What gives Pedrosa the edge is his maturity. Despite being only 22, he knows the key is to make sure his mental approach is right and to minimise the risks. He is not a chancer and he makes sure he consistently picks up points.

But it's going to be close - I really expect us to end up at round 18 not knowing who is going to win the championship until the last race at Valencia is over.

Sachsenring prediction 1. Rossi 2. Stoner 3. Pedrosa

Steve Parrish was talking to Ian Hughes