BBC SPORT | Special Events | 2001 | Tour de France

"It depends on how much money he's made and how much he wants."

O'Grady believes it is only a matter of time before Armstrong claims the yellow jersey, which is worn by the race leader.

The American lies third behind Frenchman Francois Simon and Andrei Kivilev from Kazakhstan going into Friday's 12th stage, the first of three crucial tests in the Pyrenees which will probably decide the event.

Armstrong, who rides for the US Postal team, is locked in a tense battle with German Jan Ullrich of Telekom.

Double Tour winner Armstrong stretched his advantage over Ullrich to more than three minutes with two exceptional, consecutive stage wins in the Alps on Tuesday and Wednesday.

O'Grady said: "I think the yellow jersey is going to bypass Kivilev and probably go straight to Lance.

'Armstrong's race to lose'

"There's nothing they (Telekom) can really do to stop US Postal. The only thing they can do is somehow get Ullrich out on the offensive early and make US Postal try and work."

He added: "I mean, Lance was just playing with them (Telekom) the other day (on the Alpe d'Huez) and he had the last laugh while Telekom got into a lot of trouble. And I can't see Lance being beaten in a head-to-head."

And Jonathan Vaughters, who was on the US Postal team with Armstrong but who now rides for Credit Agricole, said a "well-directed meteor shower" was among the few things that could stop the Texan.

"I don't really see that it's anybody else's race to win - it's his to lose," Vaughters said.

Stuart O'Grady
O'Grady wants to hold on to the green jersey

"As long as he doesn't get sick, crash or have a flat tyre at the wrong time, realistically I don't see him losing," said the Coloradan climber, who hopes to win a stage in the Pyrenees.

O'Grady recently enjoyed four days in yellow, but is now aiming to keep the green points jersey which German Erik Zabel has monopolised for the past five years.

"I'm feeling all right. It's going to be close - it'll go all the way to Paris, I'd say, with the green jersey," O'Grady said prior to the 12th stage.

"There's no more real bunch sprints except for the last two (stages)," the 27-year-old.

Telekom sprinter Zabel showed his sprinting class in the first few days, and has won two stages so far.

Despite Zabel keeping a low profile of late, O'Grady suspects he will soon show his hand.

"We'll find out (if he's ambitious) in the next three days. The next five stages are going to be telltale for the green jersey," he said.

Stage 12, a 166.5km climb from Perpignan to Ax-les-Thermes takes place on Friday.