How do Scots beat 'nemesis' Ireland for first time in 12 meetings?

When you dig into the ruins of Scotland's record against Ireland - 11 games and 11 defeats - you find a few statistical gems down there in the dirt.

Since Scotland's last win, in 2017, they have played eight Six Nations matches, two World Cup games and a Nations Cup encounter - 880 minutes of Test match rugby. Scotland have been ahead for just 65 of those.

Ireland's power has been way too much for them. They'll try to destroy Scotland again in the collisions on Saturday. They might find the Scots a touch more robust this time.

They've lost the try count in 10 of the 11 games; the average try count is 3.6-1.2. In eight of the 11 games, Scotland have scored one or no tries. The average score is 26-12.

In Gregor Townsend's three games against New Zealand, the average loss has been 26-19. Against South Africa (four games), it's 26-13. Ireland are Scotland's greatest nemesis, in case anybody doesn't know it.

Scotland, under Townsend, have beaten France six times in different competitions; they've also beaten England six times; they've won four in a row against Wales; and four of the past five against Australia.

The country that has caused most pain, by a country mile, is Ireland.

And this time there is more riding on it than at any other time in the Six Nations. A prize on the line for both, not just for one. It's the same rivalry but the stakes are higher.

Can Scotland win? Yes. How do they win? Er, it's complicated.

In three of the last five meetings, Scotland were never ahead at any point.

That stat about only leading for a total of 65 minutes in the 11 games includes a pretty meaningless Nations Cup match in Covid times. That accounted for 25 of those 65 minutes.

So in the other 10 Six Nations and World Cup games, Scotland have led for a grand total of 40 minutes.

More than that, in numerous games they were beaten painfully early. They trailed 21-8 after 47 minutes in 2018; it was 24-3 after 56 minutes in Japan in 2019; it was 14-0 after 29 minutes in 2022; 22-7 after an hour in 2023; 36-0 after 58 minutes at the World Cup in the same year; and 17-0 after half an hour last season.

This Ireland team is not as formidable as their recent predecessors and Scotland, certainly, have stepped up.

But those ruinous beginnings need to be consigned to the past. Scotland have to play from the start, not spend their day playing a futile game of catch-up.

In the extravaganza against France, Scotland's penalty count was only four, which is staggering. They had 100% ruck efficiency, also staggering.

They only conceded nine turnovers, which is almost beyond belief. Their usual number would be mid to upper teens.

Their points-per-entry to France's 22 number was off the scale; 5.6 points per entry.

Those numbers won't be repeated in Dublin, or possibly ever again, but Scotland need a high level of ruthlessness in everything they do.

They're averaging 3.5 points per entry, which is still excellent. Ireland are 2.9. In full flow they're lethal - nine tries off first phase compared to Ireland's one.

The way the Irish attacked in the dismantling of England at Twickenham was reminiscent of their best days but they were predictable against Wales last Friday.

Shane Horgan, the former Ireland wing, made the point on the Second Captains podcast that Ireland going for England's jugular was "in some ways a product of fear that if we don't go after this then we could get a hiding here".

"The ball carrying was back to Ireland's best - options either side, slipped passes, balls out the back, loop plays, dummy loop plays," Horgan said.

"They carried very aggressively but they carried in ones and one-out runners and Ireland are less dangerous when they do that."

Isolated ball carriers will be no good for Ireland. With quick ball and unstructured play, Scotland are a force to be reckoned with.

What they can't do is return to the old narrative - gifting Ireland soft points with botched lineouts and letting them off the hook by dropping a ball over their try line or failing to execute a simple pass that would have brought a certain score.

Ireland have been way too good for Scotland for the longest time but, boy, Scotland have been their own worst enemy in some of those losses.

Going into the Six Nations, the subject of Scotland's mental resolve was a big talking point.

They'd lost that 21-0 lead against Argentina, they'd blown up when in a good position against New Zealand - all very familiar and all very tiresome. And then they failed to deal with expectation in Rome.

Since then, a steelier Scotland has emerged. We saw it when they were 20-5 down in the Principality cauldron and came back to win.

That was a clear sign of progress. There was another last Saturday.

Having made the start they were hoping for, they then conceded two quick tries to France. Before, that might have led to a game-defining implosion, but it didn't knock anything out of them. They responded spectacularly.

Consistency and mental strength were always the things that Scotland strived for. There's growing evidence now that they've found it. Dublin will be the ultimate test of that theory.

Scotland's scrum won two penalties and a free-kick while tighthead D'Arcy Rae was on the field against France. For most of the day it was really good.

Ireland's scrum has been an issue for much of the championship. A plague has descended on their looseheads. They're now operating with their fifth-choice as starter.

They'd conceded 13 scrum penalties going into the Wales game last Friday.

Pieter de Villiers, the Scotland scrum coach, has done a terrific job since the Italy game.

Townsend's call to start Rae and not Zander Fagerson was a brilliant piece of thinking. Rae put in a huge shift and then Fagerson appeared. His work-rate was exactly what the team needed in the second 40. The roles are reversed for Dublin.

Scotland's lineout had an abysmal day in Rome, one of its worst since, er, some games in recent memory against Ireland.

In 2023, the Irish lost both hookers. Josh van der Flier, the openside, ended up throwing into the lineout. Scotland couldn't take advantage.

Two years earlier, with Paul O'Connell making a huge mark as assistant coach to Andy Farrell, Scotland lost six of their eight lineouts and lost by three points.

With Scott Cummings and Gregor Brown both out, you can be sure that O'Connell will have his beady eyes on the Scottish lineout.

Grant Gilchrist and Max Williamson get the nod with Alex Craig on the bench. The lineout needs to hold fast. Ireland's is vastly improved after some tricky times.

The battle of the scrum-halves will be utterly compelling.

Jamison Gibson-Park makes Ireland tick. His performance against England was one of the greatest by an Irish player for an age. He just bossed it.

Maybe he's the best scrum-half in the world right now. That might be sacrilegious given Antoine Dupont's magnificence, but Dupont was outplayed at Murrayfield.

It was Ben White who outplayed him and now he goes up against Gibson-Park. A clash of the little big men.

The accuracy of White's box-kicking, the speed and quality of his passing and his sniping at the side of the breakdown was of the highest class against France.

So much will be going on out there, but Gibson-Park versus White will be a drama unto itself. Two incredible operators and, if they're allowed, two game winners.

Sione Tuipulotu has been a fascinating character these past weeks, the power of his words shining through in every news conference.

What he said before France was especially pertinent.

He remarked that Scotland shouldn't be afraid if they're losing and neither should they be afraid if they're winning. He wanted his team to just keep playing, keep going for the jugular no matter what.

In that, he was addressing Scotland's past history of going to sleep on leads or going soft in their mindset, their discipline and their belief at critical times.

Those kinds of moments are too plentiful to list here, but his players clearly took his comments to heart because they absolutely went for the kill against France and, when the game was effectively over, they went for it again and again.

They finished on 50 points and seven tries. Yes, they shipped four tries in the last 14 minutes but they'd emptied the tanks by then and injury meant they had openside Rory Darge playing in the midfield.

Without Cummings, Brown and the in-form, but injured, Jamie Ritchie in the pack, Scotland are three men down, but still highly dangerous.

France weren't ready for them. Ireland had better be.