Nottingham Forest

Nicola Pearson
BBC Sport journalist

We have only just gone past the halfway stage of the Premier League season, so how much can really be read into predictions?

For supporters of Wolves, Burnley and West Ham, they will be hoping not very much.

Leeds and Nottingham Forest, however? They would breathe a bit more easily.

Throughout the season, Opta's "supercomputer" is continually predicting how the final table might look and what percentage chance clubs have of winning the title, finishing top four, in Europe and also relegation.

But for those teams currently occupying the relegation spots in the Premier League, they may want to avert their gaze.

Having only just picked up their first win last weekend, most Wolves fans will have been settled on the fact they would be returning to the Championship come the end of the season.

And Opta's predictions would suggest the same.

Of course, 14 points off 17th place with 17 games to go, it is still very much mathematically possible to save themselves - and with five points in three games there has been an uptick in form - but with a predicted chance of survival of just 0.73%, it would take something incredibly special.

Burnley's return to the top flight has not been the easiest.

While the Clarets have been picking up points, it has not been at the rate needed to get themselves out of the danger zone.

Another point was accrued against Manchester United on Wednesday night, taking them one point behind West Ham in 18th but, with Nottingham Forest's win over the Hammers on Tuesday, it still leaves Burnley eight points off safety.

Like Wolves, Opta's statistics and simulations suggest Scott Parker's side will be back in the second tier next term, with just a 6.59% survival chance unless they can start turning more draws into wins and eking out points from the narrow defeats.

As for West Ham, the defeat by Forest could prove to be one of the most damaging for their season.

A classic six-pointer, a win could have seen them close the gap to just one point. Instead, it sits at seven and sees them with a now 88.76% chance of relegation.

The change of manager from Graham Potter to Nuno Espirito Santo is yet to have the desired effect and both the head coach and the ownership are coming under pressure from the fanbase.

It was pressure that Daniel Farke was feeling at Leeds before their turnaround in results that has left them with just a 7.49% chance of relegation, while Sean Dyche may once again be steering a team to Premier League safety with a less than 10% chance of dropping out of the top flight.

But this is the Premier League, and teams have upset the odds before.

Nottingham Forest's Brazil centre-back Murillo, 23, is an option for AC Milan, who are looking to bolster their backline. (Calciomercato - in Italian), external

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Nick Mashiter
Football reporter

Image source, Getty Images

Striker Arnaud Kalimuendo has joined Eintracht Frankfurt on an initial loan deal.

The Bundesliga club have an option to make the move permanent for about £23m.

The 23-year-old moved to the City Ground from Rennes in the summer for £26m but has struggled to make an impact.

He scored twice, both in the Europa League, in 14 appearances, but was behind Igor Jesus after Chris Wood was ruled out in October with a knee injury.

Forest are keen on Wolves forward Jorgen Strand Larsen as they look for more firepower in January. Sean Dyche's side are seven points above the relegation zone after Tuesday's win at fellow strugglers West Ham.

Frankfurt sporting director Markus Krosche said: "In Arnaud Kalimuendo, we're signing a forward who, despite his young age, has performed at a consistently high level in Ligue 1.

"He has pace, makes runs behind the defence and is a clinical finisher, and he also works really hard off the ball.

"It was important for us that he was not only a very good fit in terms of the football he plays, but also in terms of his character.

"Arnaud has the ambition to keep developing, and we are confident that he has the environment here to exploit his full potential."

Melissa Edwards
BBC Sport journalist

Nottingham Forest boss Sean Dyche has been speaking to the media before Friday's FA Cup third-round tie against Wrexham at Stok Cae Ras (kick-off 19:30 GMT).

Here are the key lines from his news conference:

• Arnaud Kalimuendo has reportedly been linked with a loan move to Eintracht Frankfurt this January transfer window and Dyche believes the deal for the striker is a "very good one". He said: "It was made clear when I got here about the trading model and the nature of the club so we're waiting on that situation. We're obviously into other situations, I hope that's apparent because I've made it clear, and the owners made it clear back then, that they support the situation. We need the right players at the right time and the club felt the next deal with him is a very good one for the club so they're looking at that one."

• On any possible incomings: "You can be as optimistic as you want until the pen's on the paper and it's done - but, yeah, there's certainly ongoing conversations of situations, that's for sure. The club have been very open with me and my staff - I don't know how it's been previously but I've spoken to them about what we think."

• On moving seven points away from the relegation zone after victory over West Ham: "We've done a lot of work since we got here. We were two points in it [relegation] and now we're seven points out of it, so it's a pretty big shift over the games we've had. Nine points out of the past eight games doesn't seem a lot, but when you look at the actual table and the teams in that period, it's hard to get points in the Premier League. So to turn that gap around has been pleasing."

• Forest disagreed with some refereeing decisions in the defeat by Manchester City in December and requested the VAR audio from the Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL). Dyche thinks the matter has since been resolved: "We're only looking for a level playing field. It was very fair of them to look at it and I've had an open conversation with the club and Howard Webb [chief refereeing officer] about it and everyone's decided the right things pretty fairly. There's no win or lose in the moments, just fairness. In any given game we're looking for consistency in the refereeing and in the decisions. It's a fair outcome but it doesn't change what happened because we might have got a point here or there - but it means in the future, these things can help in the wider picture."

• He continued: "Despite popular belief, I am a big fan of referees. It's a very difficult job and, as I've said, I don't know why they have to talk to everyone and all that - just let them get on with refereeing and do their job."

• On facing Wrexham: "I know [Phil] Parkinson - what a job he's done. I think it's over 1,000 games now, which is incredible in itself. A relatively young manager at 58. I've seen his career from afar for a long time now. I've played against him, I've seen his teams have great success, and he's been more or less successful everywhere he's been. He's certainly done a brilliant job there - in positive circumstances but it's still quite interesting circumstances with a lot of noise off the pitch. He just keeps under the radar and keeps his team going."

• He added: "They've had some wins on the trot now - I think it's four - so they're a good outfit and we've got to be ready for it. It's a tough industry but you've got to learn to love the toughness and some of the hard takes - and also the good stuff when it comes your way. There's a good feeling around the camp after going down to West Ham and winning that."

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Dale Johnson
Football issues correspondent

Image source, Getty Images

How can a player be offside when the ball has been played to them by an opposition player?

You can understand why fans might be confused, especially so for West Ham's 'goal' on Tuesday night, disallowed by the VAR for offside, in their 2-1 home loss to Nottingham Forest.

Hammers winger Crysencio Summerville touched the ball forward, Forest defender Nikola Milenkovic made a block tackle and that sent the ball to West Ham's Taty Castellanos. Ten seconds later, West Ham thought Summerville had scored.

An offside phase is locked in by the final touch of a team-mate, even if that is not a pass. When Summerville played the ball, Castellanos was offside.

It then comes down to what is called a 'deliberate play' by a defender, as this resets offside and would allow the goal to count.

But the lawmakers do not consider a 'deliberate play' as an intention to touch the ball. There must be the realistic expectation of a controlled outcome.

Milenkovic making a block or a tackle does not count because he did not know where the ball might end up.

A 'deliberate play' that goes to an opponent is usually a misplaced pass or a skewed clearance.

The logic is an attacker should not be allowed to gain an advantage from being in an offside position when a defender is simply doing their job – and not making a mistake.

The most high profile disallowed goal came in the 2022 Champions League final between Real Madrid and Liverpool.

Madrid forward Federico Valverde touched the ball and both Ibrahima Konate and Fabinho made block tackles. The ball squirmed to Karim Benzema who scored, but he was offside from Valverde's touch.

Such offside decisions are always controversial for the team that suffers, but this is how the lawmakers intend it to be applied.

Nick Mashiter
Football reporter

Image source, Getty Images

It did not matter how Nottingham Forest won at West Ham. That they did was the only thing that mattered.

Tuesday's 2-1 victory, courtesy of Morgan Gibbs-White's late penalty, was not a classic but it did not have to be.

Forest now have a seven-point gap to the third-bottom Hammers - instead of the one point it stood at as they trailed at half time. That is the only real stat that matters now.

Boss Sean Dyche remained typically measured afterwards: "There is still work to be done, My job is to go through that noise and see the facts of it."

He is not wrong. The bottom three may look cut adrift but Forest can still be fragile, as their four-game losing run prior to Tuesday showed.

Dyche never used the word perspective after Saturday's defeat at Aston Villa but his comments were laced with it.

Forest had tightened up and improved under him, only for sloppy mistakes and individual errors to halt the recovery and bring the defeats that had threatened to drag them back into the relegation zone.

Friday's FA Cup tie at in-form Championship side Wrexham, and the return to Europa League action with games against Braga and Ferencvaros this month, adds to Forest's workload and only complicates their survival bid.

Games with Arsenal and Brentford in the Premier League complete the month and Forest, as they have proved, can slip.

As Dyche says, the hard work is not over.

We asked for your thoughts after Tuesday's Premier League game between West Ham and Nottingham Forest.

Here are some of your comments:

West Ham fans

Mick: They tried . It's all you can say. They simply aren't good enough for this league. Not the worst West Ham team ever, but close. The mistakes in possession ran to over 40. The defending utterly chaotic. I'll excuse Jarrod Bowen as he is the only player that could play for a top five club. The rest are League One or lower. Another 14 games of this? Roll on relegation.

Rob: A reasonable performance. We've played worse and won, although not this season. Nuno hasn't lost the dressing room. It's sad to see Bowen s body language - after all he's done for the club.

Matt: Much better performance from the lads. We are looking more like a team and have far more presence in midfield. We were unlucky with quite a few (albeit probably correct) decisions, but definitely a small step in the right direction. New signings looked lively.

Robert: Not enough pressing. Too many long balls. The referee penalised good tackles giving Forest the advantage and he missed the foul on Crysencio Summerville that led to a penalty.

Richard: Gutted - we were robbed. I think this is the pivotal game that will send us down.

Nottingham Forest fans

Mark: Unconvincing again. We'll probably only survive because of there being three worse teams than us, rather than deserving to stay here. Desperately need an out-and-out striker and we're missing Chris Wood badly.

Kris: Truthfully, we shaded it. VAR were on our side and Nicolas Dominguez's header looped in with a big slice of luck. Hopefully this gives us the boost we needed and we can get some reinforcements in to help. In a word - phew!

Simon: Forest just about deserved the win, but yet again were very ineffective in the box. Igor Jesus works hard, is strong and holds the ball up well, but lacks height and pace.

Dave: Massive three points. I'm still not fully convinced by Dycheball and it is a bit worrying that it took the VAR decision to wake us up, but ultimately we got the job done.

Ben: Relief doesn't even come close to describing my reaction to that match. That may well be a season-defining result. But as important as it is, it doesn't hide the fact that Forest are a shadow of their former selves. Will they recapture their previous verve any time soon? It's not looking overly likely.

Michael Emons
BBC Sport journalist

Image source, Reuters

The final whistle celebrations showed how important this victory was for Nottingham Forest.

It has been a tough campaign for them since Nuno Espirito Santo took them seventh in 2024-25, their highest finish in 30 years.

He was sacked in September before Ange Postecoglou lasted 39 days as Forest manager, then Sean Dyche became the side's third of the season.

He picked up 13 points from his first eight games in charge, although four successive league losses had left them only four points above West Ham before Tuesday's game.

Dyche and the Forest fans would have worried the gap might close to one point, despite the visitors playing well in the first half but trailing to Murillo's own goal.

Neco Williams had a 20-yard effort superbly tipped over by Areola when the score was goalless and Callum Hudson-Odoi was unlucky to see his strike bounce off the bar when the home goalkeeper was well beaten.

But Forest scored an equaliser through Nicolas Dominguez within 10 minutes of the second half and had to survive some pressure before Morgan Gibbs-White kept his composure to score the match-winning 89th-minute penalty.

Forest still have plenty of work to do to ensure their own safety, but these three points gives them some breathing space.

Nottingham Forest boss Sean Dyche spoke to Sky Sports after his side's victory over West Ham: "Well, pleased obviously. Pleased with the mentality of the players. Awkward game for both sides and a lot of noise around the game. To go 1-0 down and stay calm and deliver a second half that can win the game is very pleasing.

"The noise changes quickly, and we have got to change it around quickly."

On VAR decisions: "We have been on the wrong side of that, of course, things going against us with VAR. But both decisions were right I am told."

On the game: "Second half, we started changing the field a bit more. Sometimes you need the rub of the green, and it went our way for a couple of big decisions.

"You can feel the nerves in the stadium. They're important games, we showed the mentality of finding a way of winning. I'll take that.

"You have got to find a way and we found a way tonight. There is more to come from this group. You have still got to find a way. The game is rarely the perfect game for you. There has been a shift in mentality, and I am pleased with that.

On upcoming fixtures: "There is still work to be done. My job is to go through that noise and see the facts of it.

"By no means a classic, but you have got to find a way of winning.

"These are awkward games. I have been through a lot of these awkward games, I am happy to come out the right side of it tonight and the players just about deserved it."

Captain and goalscorer Morgan Gibbs-White also spoke to Sky Sports: "Incredible. It wasn't a nice game. We knew it was going to be a battle because of the position of both teams. What I liked from the boys is we didn't give up and we fought till the end.

"Again, we seem to keep conceding straight after half-time. When that got disallowed, it changed the momentum of the game. It brought belief in the squad. Delighted we got the three points.

"We should be starting every game with full belief, but it has not been that case recently. Their goal put us on a downer, but we reacted well."

On the penalty decision: "To be honest, I got whacked in the face and I didn't have a clue what was going on. I came to my senses when he said it was a penalty.

"No doubts, I was practicing it yesterday. It was a safety one, but we got the three points in the end.

"It is what we want to do, we want to go into the game believing. We have not got to kick on this year, a fresh start.

"First half we were that one yard off and second half it picked up, and we were good again."

Did you know?

• Tuesday was the 103rd time Nottingham Forest have trailed at half time in a Premier League game but just the second time they've come back to win - with their other victory coming back in January 1997 against Tottenham.

• West Ham (12) and Forest (eight) have conceded more goals from corners than any other side in the league this season, with both team's opening goals coming in this manner.

Whether you were at the game or following from elsewhere, we want to know what you learned.

Have your say on West Ham's performance

What did you make of Nottingham Forest's display?

Come back on Wednesday for a selection of your replies

West Ham give a debut to Argentina international striker Valentin Castellanos, who joined the Hammers earlier this week for an undisclosed fee from Italian side Lazio.

He is one of four changes from the team that lost 3-0 at bottom side Wolves, with starts also for Jean-Clair Todibo, Tomas Soucek and Lucas Paqueta.

Sean Dyche makes two changes for Nottingham Forest as Callum Hudson-Odoi is in for Dilane Bakwa, while Matz Sels is in goal after John Victor sustained an injury in the 3-1 loss to Aston Villa at the weekend.

Pat Riddell
Fan writer

Image source, Getty Images

Where has it gone wrong for Nottingham Forest? Well, as usual, there is no easy answer.

We have raked over the chaos of the first few months of the season - and we are still dealing with the fallout.

Sean Dyche had a positive impact in his first 12 matches with impressive results against Leeds United,Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur while remaining unbeaten in the Europa League. However, the past four league games have seen four defeats and sucked the Reds back into a relegation battle.

Saturday's meek performance against Aston Villa was a far cry from the committed display against Manchester City and you can only hope we see more of that determination in the games to come.

Perhaps the issues we face are still the ones that needed addressing from last season?

And you have to wonder what Plan B is when Plan A looks as bad as it did at Villa Park. Last season we struggled when we went behind, except it rarely happened. This season we often go behind without a response. We can dominate possession or give up possession but still struggle to pose any goal threat.

Players are coming back from injury and there could be a signing or two in the transfer window to strengthen the squad - possibly up front, where Chris Wood has been sorely missed. Ibrahim Sangare will be back from Afcon in a matter of weeks and surely the squad will be in a better place by the time we reach the end of the month?

Upheaval only ever feeds inconsistency and that is exactly what we have got at the moment. Every impressive performance is closely followed by a depressing slump.

Tuesday's match against West Ham will not define the season. But if we ever manage to pull away from the bottom three, the rest of the table is not that far off.

The alternative, however, is all too real.

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Tom McCoy
BBC Sport journalist

West Ham will slip seven points adrift of safety if they lose to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday (20:00 GMT) in a game which sees Hammers boss Nuno Espirito Santo face the club that sacked him in September. BBC Sport examines some of the key themes before the match.

Pressure growing on Espirito Santo

Saturday's 3-0 defeat by bottom club Wolves - previously winless - marked a new low for West Ham under Nuno. The head coach had to apologise to Hammers fans who had travelled to Molineux, admitting the first-half display was "embarrassing".

The 51-year-old also highlighted "a lack of effort that is really concerning", questioning whether some of his squad "realise the situation we are in". The Hammers hierarchy certainly do and, even if doubts are creeping in over the wisdom of appointing Nuno, they have sanctioned urgent spending in the January transfer window to give the club a fighting chance of survival.

Brazilian striker Pablo Felipe was an unused substitute against Wolves after joining from Portuguese side Gil Vicente for a reported £21.8m fee, while Argentine forward Taty Castellanos arrived from Lazio on Monday for approximately £26m.

New signings are clearly needed as the managerial change has not sparked an improvement. In fact, since Nuno took charge on 27 September they have averaged fewer points per game than under his processor Graham Potter, also conceding more goals and scoring fewer.

And yet, West Ham are chasing a first top-flight double over Forest since 1968-69, having won 3-0 at the City Ground in August — a result that proved to be Nuno's final match in charge of the two-time European Cup winners.

Should his current side lose on Tuesday, his future as Hammers boss will come under increased scrutiny.

Error-prone Forest must get back to basics

Unlike the Hammers, Nottingham Forest initially enjoyed an upturn in form when Sean Dyche took charge in October, with the Englishman winning four of his first eight league fixtures.

However, he has since lost four in a row and now faces the prospect of five consecutive Premier League defeats in a single season for the first time in his managerial career.

Dyche said after Saturday's 3-1 defeat by Aston Villa that there have been "good signs" during his overall tenure but admitted "what changes the story is when you put a run together like we have".

Forest's hopes of a result at the weekend vanished when goalkeeper John Victor rashly raced off his line, allowing John McGinn to score Villa's third. Dyche insists his side must cut out those "basic errors", adding "the mentality is there but you can't keep giving yourself a mountain to climb".

The stats support Dyche's view. Forest have committed 22 errors leading to an opposition shot this season – the joint-second highest figure in the Premier League.

And while Dyche's belt-and-braces approach was expected to tighten up the Forest rearguard, it is notable that four of the six goals they have conceded due to errors have come under his watch.

Nottingham Forest have lost four games in a row but West Ham are in even worse shape.

The manner of their defeat at Wolves on Saturday has cranked up the pressure on Hammers manager Nuno Espirito Santo.

West Ham beat Forest 3-0 earlier this season but, unfortunately for Nuno, that was when he was still Forest boss - it was his final game in charge.

How he could do with another 3-0 West Ham win this time, but I do not see it happening.

It is a nightmare for them to be at home, really, because you can imagine what the mood will be like inside the stadium before kick-off.

I don't think it will have improved by full-time, either. I just have a feeling Sean Dyche's Forest will have a bit more nous, and will sneak a narrow win.

Sutton's prediction: 0-1

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Nottingham Forest's head of football Edu faces doubts over his long-term future as the Reds continue to endure a turbulent season. (Telegraph - subscription required), external

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Melissa Edwards
BBC Sport journalist

Nottingham Forest boss Sean Dyche has been speaking to the media before Tuesday's Premier League game against West Ham at London Stadium (kick-off 20:00 GMT).

Here are the key lines from his news conference:

• Callum Hudson-Odoi might be available for selection having missed out on the defeat by Aston Villa on Saturday.

• Forest are averaging 0.95 goals per game this season while conceding an average of 1.65 and the Reds boss believes his side need to find those "quality moments": "You've got to look at the facts and the stats. At the end of last season, the goals weren't as regular. Pre-season goals weren't as regular. At the beginning of the season, goals weren't as regular. We've actually performed better. But you've got to score goals that win games, not just goals from behind. But the mentality is right to go and do so."

• He added: "[Erling] Haaland was questioned last season - people said he wasn't having enough touches. He looks like he has plenty to me, when it goes in that net."

• On whether Forest resemble a 'Sean Dyche team' yet: "I'm not bothered about whether it's my team in that respect or not, but it's fair to say my teams have been pretty firm and organised. That's something we put in place and it needs constant correction because we've made a few mistakes, which we have been punished for."

• On goalkeeper John Victor's competition with Matz Sels, after his error cost a goal at Villa Park before he went off injured: "There's been a real close contest for them. I've spoken to both of them about it. I thought John had done enough and early on he makes a brilliant save from a point-blank chance. It's very unfortunate for us a big mistake occurred."

• Meanwhile, Morgan Gibbs-White's goal on Saturday established him as the club's top scorer in the Premier League with four but Dyche was clear his team is not just about one player or one specific fixture: "It's about a squad. It's not just about one game though. There's all the games that come after [West Ham] in the league, there's all the Europa games that come, there's the FA Cup game. It's about the whole squad's mentality. I haven't doubted that since I've been here, but we can't keep making the errors we've been making and we've got to cause more trouble in the opposition's final third."

• Dyche dismissed suggestions Tuesday's game against opponents four points behind Forest in the final relegation spot is a 'six-pointer': "It's an easy line to use. I've been in it so many years and we are only just at the halfway point so there is a lot more football to be played either way. It's very helpful to win this game, quite obviously so that's the challenge, go and win away from home."

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We asked for your thoughts after Saturday's Premier League game between Aston Villa and Nottingham Forest.

Here are some of your comments:

Villa fans

Sam: Solid response to the Arsenal game. McGinn leading in attitude and performance and everyone to a man lifted their game. Great to see Rogers and Watkins linking up again. If they can keep finding one another in the run-in then we'll hopefully stay on Arsenal and Manchester City's tails all the way to May.

Mike: A true team performance with everyone fully contributing and exactly what we needed after the last game. Terrific goals from Watkins and McGinn and decent saves when needed from Martinez at the other end. I don't want to tempt fate but my gut feeling is that a top-four finish is looking a reasonable expectation.

Matt: Not losing the momentum we've created after the result against Arsenal was key to making sure our season didn't fade. Unai is too smart to allow that to happen. Huge three points.

Richard: Villa seem to have a knack of winning games in second gear. Hopefully we will change it up a gear occasionally and really thump the opposition. Forest were dire, particularly in the first half. Good to see Watkins score again. McGinn scored two great goals. Kamara and Tielemans controlled the midfield. All part of Emery's master plan. UTV.

Forest fans

Steve: Another poor display, mainly because of a loss of concentration, which is unacceptable and quickly punished in the Premier League. As for Dyche's comments - not sure which game he's been watching!

Sherman: We hit the self-destruct button again and were lucky that other results went our way. A win against West Ham is now non-negotiable. We desperately need a striker if we are to pull clear of trouble. It was great to see Aina back but my nerves are shredded.

Malcolm: I played amateur football for 40 years mostly at a decent level and I can assure you I didn't make basic mistakes like Forest are making.

Sean: Defeat was expected in all honesty considering Villa's home form. It doesn't make it any less disappointing. John Victor summed up Forest lately in that moment of madness for the third, but hopefully his injury is not too bad. We are clearly missing Sangare on international duty, and next game is absolutely crucial.

Pundits Alan Shearer and Jermain Defo join host Mark Chapman to bring you the action and talking points from Saturday's Premier League fixtures.

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