By Saroj Pathirana BBC Sinhala Service

Lionel Bopage, a former General Secretary of the JVP, told BBC Sandeshaya that another split is imminent in the youth movement.

The mainly Sinhala youth movement from the south that twice took arms against the Sri Lankan state split into two major groups last week.

Lionel Bopage, who left the JVP protesting pro-war policies says there is no policy difference between Mr. Weerawansa and the party hierachy

JVP parliamentary group leader, Wimal Weerawansa, publicly accused the party hierarchy of ‘conspiring’ to expel him from the movement.

Ten JVP parliamentarians expressed support to Mr. Weerawansa, who is widely regarded as the public face of the JVP.

'Personality clash'

The dissident group is expected to support President Rajapaksa, while the JVP led by Somawansa Amerasinghe is expected to protest on issues like increasing cost of living and human rights situation.

Both factions, however, support government’s war against the Tamil Tigers and object any devolution of power in resolving the ethnic problem.

According to Mr. Bopage, the third faction will emerge after the eastern Provincial Council (PC) elections.

	JVP leader says Mr. Weerawansa did not obey party discipline

“That group will most probably support the right wing parties such as United National Party (UNP) or Sri Lanka Freedom Party (Mahajana Wing),” he told BBCSinhala.com.

The split in the popular youth movement was much of a personality clash between the senior leaders than any difference in party policy, analysts pointed out.

“A youth movement, whether it is LTTE or JVP, is usually a bourgeoisie organisation of poor and farmers,” says Terrence Purasinghe, a lecturer on political science at Sri Jayawardhanapaura University.

There is no middle path for the bourgeoisie organisations, which are usually nationalistic in character, than taking arms, Mr. Purasinghe added.

‘Sinhala Karuna’

JVP, the third largest political party in Sri Lanka parliament re-entered into democratic process after two unsuccessful armed uprisings, in 1971 and late 80s.

The split in the JVP and the recent split in the Tamil Tigers bare many similarities, says editor of LankaDissent web newspaper, Gamini Viyangoda.

	There are many similarities in splits of LTTE and the JVP, say analysts

Vinayamurthi Muralitharan alias Karuna broke away from the LTTE in March 2004.

He later joined hands with the government forces to defeat the LTTE from the eastern province.

UNP has publicly admitted that the then government led by party leader Ranil Wickramasinghe engineered the LTTE split, at a time the rebels engaged in peace talks with his government.

“Weerawansa will also support the government and he will be used by the Rajapaksa administration in a similar manner to attack the JVP,” Mr. Viyangoda told BBC Sandeshaya.

'Fascist group'

The Rajapaksa administration is accused of engineering a split in the Karuna faction to get rid of Karuna whose paramilitary group is accused of gross human rights violations.

Karuna, who says President’s brother helped him to obtain a diplomatic passport to flee the country, is currently serving a prison sentence in UK for violation of immigration laws.

Splits in both the LTTE and the JVP are, in my opinion, direct results of their decision to engage with the capitalist parties Terrence Purasinghe, political analyst

“Although Karuna and Weerawansa have many similarities in terms of the split, I believe Weerawansa will not face the same fate as Karuna,” Mr. Viyangoda said.

The ultimate winner of the split however will be President Mahinda Rajapaksa, according to Gamini Sumanasekara, editor of Divaina Sinhala weekly.

Commenting on the JVP’s action to highjack official vehicles of dissident MPs and allegations that some MPs are even assaulted by party supporters, Mr. Sumanasekara said JVP is acting "like a fascist group".

“Splits in both the LTTE and the JVP are, in my opinion, direct results of their decision to engage with the capitalist parties,” Terrence Purasinghe said.

The split in the JVP will ultimately lead to escalating violence in the north and east as Weerawansa faction would strengthen the government, Mr. Purasinghe added.

A selection of your comments:

Recent split of the JVP is catually a leadership clash really engineered by the local and international imperialists, however they think they have won.But when we go back to the party history, it wont be so.JVP is not a traditional political party defending on the faces or personalities like Weerawansa or any others. So we dont have to worry over the Wimal Weerawanses betryal of the party to imperialists.deer Wimal you should be ashamed abot your present behaviour and we strongly condemned it.
Sarath Kudamaduwa, Japan

What ever happend JVP will not vanish in Sri Lanka,untill remaining the real people who loves their motherland and the nation (Srilanka).Thousand of people sacrificed every thing,even their lives ,for a better world.No Somawansa neighter Weerawansa can change it.Long live Peoples Party.
Upul Withanage, Negombo, Sri Lanka

JVP, the most corrupted political party in Sri Lanka is now in a political crisis. Before the elections they gave various promises to the poor. But now they go behind Mahinda Rajapakse to gain narrow political benefits. People know JVP has no future in Sri Lankan politics because of their broken promises. We know that Wimal Weerawansa has taken millions of dollars as commissions from the Telecom deal.
Lalith Shanaka de Silva, Osaka, Japan

Really, although we have forgotten to ask whether JVP was made by WW or WW was made by JVP,it has now come the time for the matter. As I think, there could never be a WW if there was not the JVP. If so, will there be a WW now as he has now left the JVP?
Bandula perumpuli arachchi, Matara, Sri Lanka

This is actually a personality clash, but engineered and capitalised by imperialists with the intention of ruining the party which was seemingly working for the margianlzed group of the socity by winning the hearts and minds of the havenots and manu moderates, They should essentilly patch up and mend their differences,if not the least hope for honest young outfit will soon be shattered.
Jayband Wycon, Sri Lanka

First of all I would like to say that I am not belongs to any political party. If JVP devided into two or three groups, definetly the party will become powerless in the parliament. That is what GoSL was expecting for a long period. Any how that dream became true for GoSL. Mr. Somawansa Amarasinghe should take all responsibilities of destruction of the party. Finally could Mr. Amarasnghe make a referendum to select a new JVP leader? You will be out with zero.
Dayaratne Bandara, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia