Matt Haig

A few months ago, a crack appeared in the ceiling at the bottom of our stairs. It was not a big crack and so, obviously, I did the Obvious Thing. I ignored it. Because that always works.

Then, a few weeks ago, the crack started to widen. A Lot. And as it widened, the ceiling started to sag until the whole thing came to resemble an inverted dome with a kind of gravity-defying Grand Canyon slashed across it.

I started to wonder how long it might be until the whole thing collapsed.

Now, I am not a prophet. Nor do I know the tolerances of old plaster and wood chip, so this was not a future I was equipped to predict. The Bible offers sound advice on prophecy for those of us who are not actually prophets.

“No one knows what is to happen,” it reminds us,

“and who can tell anyone what the future holds?”

But the Bible also says, ““The wise among the people shall give understanding to many.”

So I called a plasterer. In fact, I called two. And they both laughed when they saw my ceiling. ‘I wouldn’t want to be stood there when that comes down’ was the gist of what they said. The thing about predicting the future is that, even with expert knowledge, it is immensely hard to do. This year has been an object lesson in that unhappy truth. Predicted economic outcomes, predicted infection rates, predicted grades have all proven wildly, often catastrophically inaccurate.

But wherever possible, it has still proven sensible to listen to people who actually know what they’re talking about. So I listen to my doctor. I listen to my partner, Susie. When it’s a theological question, I listen to my daughter, Miriam.

And I listened to the plasterers, who were wise enough not to try to predict how long the ceiling would last - but experienced enough to tell me to get it fixed sooner rather than later.

I know I’m not the only one trying to see through the murk to know when the ceiling will collapse. Ceilings seem to be collapsing all around us. But I hope that next time a gaping hole appears anywhere in my life I’ll have the sense to call a plasterer before it’s too late.