Ali Plumb predicts this year’s Oscar winners

Radio 1’s film critic tells us who he thinks is taking home the six big ones

The Oscars are nearly here and to honour one of the biggest nights in film we’re putting on a very special show of our own - from 3am on the morning of Monday 25 February, Radio 1’s film critic Ali Plumb and Jordan North will be bringing you all the big news on who’s won what.

In the meantime, we've asked Ali who he thinks is going to take home six of the biggest gongs: Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress.

Tune in the early hours of Monday 25 February to see if he’s right.

• Black Panther
• BlacKkKlansman
• Bohemian Rhapsody
• The Favourite
• Green Book
• Roma
• A Star Is Born
• Vice

This is a tough one. The toughest. With 10 nominations each, tying the lead for the most nominations overall, at first glance it seems like a two-horse race between Roma and The Favourite. Alfonso Cuarón’s black and white arthouse drama Roma doesn’t have an editing nomination – often a key indicator when it comes to Best Picture winners – but has been on a bit of an award-collecting spree elsewhere. A negating factor is that it’s a Netflix film, and there’s a chance that when it comes down to it, members of The Academy may turn their noses up at actually giving their biggest accolade to the ever-present, all-consuming streaming goliath: a company that seems to threaten traditional cinema-going as we know it.

As for The Favourite, it’s similarly arty fair, but more comic. It’s also a luxurious period piece, which often does well, and it’s also got all three of its leads nominated in the acting categories (Olivia Colman for Best Actress, Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz for Best Supporting Actress). So with many different things to consider, and a lot of luck at play, I’m going to go with my gut and pick The Favourite – if only because, frankly, I like it more than the others.

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• Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
• Paweł Pawlikowski – Cold War
• Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
• Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
• Adam McKay – Vice

As with Best Picture, there’s a similar battle between Roma’s Alfonso Cuarón (Gravity, Children Of Men, Y Tu Mamá También) and The Favourite’s Yorgos Lanthimos (The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Dogtooth, The Lobster) when it comes to Best Director. One of those two will likely win, and whichever does win, their film will likely win Best Picture to boot.

But! Considering legendary director Spike Lee has never been nominated before, and is undeniably an important part of modern US cinema, there’s a small, glimmering hope that he might take home the statuette, and I’m feeling lucky.

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• Yalitza Aparicio – Roma as Cleodegaria "Cleo" Gutiérrez
• Glenn Close – The Wife as Joan Castleman
• Olivia Colman – The Favourite as Anne, Queen of Great Britain
• Lady Gaga – A Star Is Born as Ally Maine
• Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Lee Israel

Lady Gaga was building up a good head of steam for a while there, and Olivia Colman did bag a Golden Globe, but Glenn Close does seem like a dead cert here. Perhaps the British BAFTA boost for Colman will affect things, but as much as I want “Soph from Peep Show” to go home with an Oscar, I don’t think she will. Glenn Close is, to quote Wikipedia, a “seven-time Academy Award nominee. She has more nominations without a win than any other living actor, and holds the record for being the actress with the most nominations without winning.” Her performance in The Wife is excellent too of course, but the whole “It’s time” factor matters, frankly.

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• Christian Bale – Vice as Dick Cheney
• Bradley Cooper – A Star Is Born as Jackson "Jack" Maine
• Willem Dafoe – At Eternity's Gate as Vincent van Gogh
• Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody as Freddie Mercury
• Viggo Mortensen – Green Book as Frank "Tony Lip" Vallelonga

Christian Bale ticks a few of the Oscar voters’ boxes, playing a) a real-life person in Dick Cheney b) gaining weight for a role c) wearing prosthetics to boot. But Rami Malek has all of these things going for him as well – minus the weight gain thing, sure – in playing Freddie Mercury, but with the added advantages that Bohemian Rhapsody is a more ‘watchable’ (and less depressing) movie than Vice and his character is much more dynamic and loveable. Both Bale and Malek have won their fair share of awards this season, but I suspect the fact that Rami is the new kid on the block will mean Bale will edge him out. Remember: with Empire Of The Sun Coming out in 1987, Bale’s been around a long time.

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• Mahershala Ali – Green Book as Don Shirley
• Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman as Philip "Flip" Zimmerman
• Sam Elliott – A Star Is Born as Bobby Maine
• Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me? as Jack Hock
• Sam Rockwell – Vice as George W. Bush

Yes, it’s a shame that Hugh Grant didn’t get a nomination for his performance in Paddington 2 – in fact, the 100%-on-Rotten-Tomatoes family-friendly film was overlooked everywhere at the Oscars this year – but if another veteran British actor were to get the gong, Richard E. Grant is a pretty fair substitute. Sam Rockwell won an Oscar too recently (for Three Billboards) to win another this year, as has Mahershala Ali (for Moonlight), and there’s no real buzz behind the admittedly brilliant Elliott and Driver, leaving Grant smiling after delivering a dazzling performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? It really does seem nigh-on guaranteed, but we’ve been wrong before…

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• Amy Adams – Vice as Lynne Cheney
• Marina de Tavira – Roma as Sofía
• Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk as Sharon Rivers
• Emma Stone – The Favourite as Abigail Masham
• Rachel Weisz – The Favourite as Sarah Churchill

Giving Glenn Close a run for her money with six nominations and no win over the years – for Junebug, Doubt, The Fighter, The Master, American Hustle and this year’s Vice, fact fans – it seems only fair Amy Adams goes home the winner this time around. Previous Oscar winners both, Stone and Weisz are exceptional in exceptional roles in The Favourite, and could prove a challenge. But Adams gets my vote this time around for her performance as Dick Cheney’s better half, Lynne, giving us an arguably better display of acting talent than her co-star Bale does.

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The 91st Oscars ceremony will be held in Hollywood on the evening of Sunday 24 February (US time). If you're pulling an all-nighter, you can listen to Ali Plumb and Jordan North from 3am on Monday morning (UK time) who will be bringing you everything as it happens. In the meantime, you can view the full list of nominations on the Oscars website.