Shoreline management plans
Thousands of people living on the Welsh coast could see a big drop in the value of their homes as the Welsh Government prepares to approve plans to stop defending them from the sea.
One of four Shoreline Management Plans covering Wales – the South Wales plan - has already been signed off by the Welsh Government and the Minister for Natural resources, Carl Sargeant, has indicated the others will be approved soon.
The plans – a second generation of Shoreline Management Plans created by councils, engineers and other authorities in response to sea level rise - break sections of the Welsh coast down into ‘policy zones’.
For each of those zones, engineers have worked out how the area is defended today and whether those defences can continue to be maintained, or if they should be changed or even left alone in future.
Many places will continue to be defended, but the shoreline plans admit that in 48 areas around the Welsh coastline some homes may be at risk as a result of the policy decided on.
Changes may be in the short, medium or long term, with the policies looking ahead over 100 years, in which time sea levels are generally expected to rise by at least half a metre.
In most of these cases, relocation is one of a number of different options that may be considered and the Welsh Government says communities in these areas will be involved and supported through the changes.
Links to all four plans – covering North Wales, West Wales, South Wales and the Severn Estuary - are available on the UK Government’s website gov.uk, or contact your local council for more information.
Monmouthshire (Severn Estuary SMP2):
Caldicot
Realignment of defences could lead to a loss of property / land but reduce the risk of impacts from flooding to areas behind the new defences. Losses will depend on the location of new defences.
Newport (Severn Estuary SMP2):
Wentlooge
Realignment of defences in epoch 2 could lead to a loss of property / land but reduce the risk of impacts from flooding to areas behind the new defences. Losses will depend on the location of new defences.
Vale of Glamorgan (South Wales SMP2):
St Mary's Well Bay, near Sully
Some residential properties in St Mary’s Well Bay may be at risk from coastal erosion in the short term.
Swanbridge, Sully
Existing defences will be maintained in the short term then allowed to fail. This is likely to result in the loss of residential and non-residential properties along the coast.
Sully
There may be a loss of cliff top residential properties, in the medium and long term.
Whitmore Bay, Barry
Should managed realignment be implemented in the long term in Whitmore Bay, there may be some loss of non-residential and residential properties, dependent on the extent and nature of the realignment.
Bull Cliff, Barry
There may be a risk to properties on Marine Drive, Bull Cliff dependent on the rate of future coastal erosion/ cliff falls.
St Donats
Potential risk to isolated cliff top properties, although risk is minimal and dependent upon future rates of coastal erosion and cliff falls. Risk to part of St Donat’s Atlantic College should defences not be privately maintained.
Bridgend (South Wales SMP2):
Newton, Porthcawl
Although the defences would be maintained for as long as possible, they will be allowed to fail. This would result in increased flood and erosion risk and potential loss of frontal properties.
Swansea (South Wales SMP2):
Oxwich Bay, Gower
Properties adjacent to the shore are at risk from coastal erosion and flooding. It is unlikely that new defences would be constructed and therefore there will be an increased risk of coastal erosion and flooding to these properties.
Port Eynon Bay, Gower
Properties adjacent to the shore are at risk from coastal erosion and flooding. It is unlikely that new defences would be constructed and therefore there will be an increased risk of coastal erosion and flooding to these properties.
Carmarthenshire (South Wales SMP2):
Laugharne
There remains a risk of coastal flooding (and erosion) to Laugharne village since a surge barrier was not constructed, as the local community were primarily concerned with the associated aesthetic impact on the village.
Pendine village
In the long term, the aim is to undertake a managed realignment scheme at Pendine, subject to the recommendations of an ongoing study. As a result of this, some seafront properties are likely to be lost.
Pembrokeshire (South Wales SMP2):
Amroth
Once the existing defences fail the shoreline will be allowed to naturally evolve and retreat which will result in the loss of frontal properties.
Wiseman's Bridge
Properties are likely to be lost due to coastal erosion at Wiseman’s Bridge where defences will be maintained in the short term, before being allowed to fail in the medium and long term.
Saundersfoot
Flood and coastal erosion risk to properties, assets and infrastructure will continue to increase over time. This policy is subject to a further detailed study to investigate the future risk, but options for adaptation measures include protection measures or relocation of properties.
Angle
It is unlikely that existing defences will be maintained or upgraded. Adaptation measures may include relocation of assets.
Gelliswick, Milford Haven
HTL [hold the line] to allow time for alternative adaptation measures and an exit strategy, which may involve abandonment or relocation of assets.
Dale
Plan to set back defence in long term. This may result in the loss of some existing properties or assets dependent upon the extent of realignment and the conclusions of further detailed studies and investigations.
Pembrokeshire continued (West of Wales SMP2):
Little Haven
Realignment over second and third epochs. This is likely to result in loss of the existing road through the village and eventually loss due to erosion of possibly two properties along the frontage.
Newgale sands
Along with the road, increased flooding to the valley is likely to make the properties and businesses untenable much beyond the start of the second Epoch.
Newgale village
It is probable that there could be loss of property towards the end of the final Epoch.
Solva
Over the next 50 years planning should be put in place to make properties more resilient to flooding, with the possibility of actually removing property from within the flood plain
Ceredigion (West of Wales SMP):
Poppit Dunes, near Cardigan
There would be no guarantee that defences to properties within the dunes would be protected and further defence may not be permitted.
Tresaith
There would be loss of existing facilities such as the boat park and potentially in the future the buildings closest to the backshore area.
Llangrannog
The SMP cannot exclude the possible loss of some property, but this needs to be discussed further.
New Quay bay
Over the central section (Traeth Gwyn) it might be expected that the forward properties together with properties at the lower end of Bronwyn Lane, would be lost within the next 10 to 30 years. To the east, Ffynnon Feddyg could be lost over the next 10 years.
New Quay, Llanina Point
Defence of the frontage is unsustainable. Erosion of Llanina Point would be managed to allow time for planning for change and loss of property.
Aberaeron
A policy of managed realignment in third epoch may result in loss of some properties to the back of the frontage.
Aberarth
It is likely that there would be loss of property to create sufficient width to establish a sustainable line of natural defence.
Borth
There is the need in the future to adapt use of the lower village and the very probable need to relocate people in the future as sea level rises.
Gwynedd (West of Wales SMP2)
Fairbourne coast
This would involve the relocation of property owners and businesses from Fairbourne
Fairbourne spit
This would involve the relocation of property owners and businesses from Fairbourne
Fairbourne embankment
This would involve the relocation of property owners and businesses from Fairbourne
Fegla, near Fairbourne
Possibility for local defence at Arthog, but… these again are recognised to be major changes in expectation for continued defence and significant resource would be needed to manage this change.
Mawddach Estuary
It is not considered realistic to commit to the increasing cost of maintaining and raising defences upstream of Penmaenpool. Consideration might be given to local defence of specific property.
Barmouth
This is likely to require some future realignment of the defences, quite probably with the loss of property.
Aberdaron
At Porth Colmon there might be risk in epoch 3 to the property Glanmor. Also potentially within epoch 3, the coast road and four properties just outside the village of Aberdaron could be lost.
Porthdinllaen
With a 1m sea level rise it would be expected that even if properties were adapted to be more resilient to flooding, the extent of general flooding within the community would mean that residential use would be untenable. Further around the bay, sustaining the existing defence to the access and to property is not seen as being viable over the 100 years with sea level rise.
Aberdesach
There is likely to be loss of properties due to erosion or flooding in epoch 3.
Pontllyfni, Caernarfon
At Pontllyfni, there would be no intent to protect against further erosion and there would be loss of properties at the sea front.
Dinas Dinlle
The risk to the village, both in terms of flood risk and in terms of erosion, increases progressively over time and as one moves north from Dinas Head. The intent would be to sustain the more traditional area of the village in the lee of the headland
Morfa Dinlle
Over the first two epochs the village of Morfa Dinlle could be sustained, potentially into epoch 3.
Hirael, Bangor
It is not considered sustainable to maintain the shoreline defence over the period of the SMP. To take this approach would require developing a plan for moving people and businesses from the area.
Anglesey (West of Wales SMP2):
Traeth Dulas, Moelfre
At Traeth Dulas, there would be future risk to properties and to the main road further upstream at City Dulas.
Moelfre
Possible long term loss of properties, the car park and the road needs to be examined in association with the local community.
Traeth Bychan
The overall intent would be to avoid heavy reliance on defence. This may mean relocation of facilities and buildings and in the longer term relocation of parts of the car park.
Afon Nodwydd, Red Wharf bay
At the Afon Nodwydd future defence of the area is not seen as being sustainable. The change in defence afforded to property, together with consideration of future access along this frontage will need to be managed and examined in local detail.
