Wetin Putin go do next? And oda ogbonge questions

Emergency security measures dey Kampe for Moscow, afta one rebellion by Wagner mercenaries wey don shake di position of di Russian President.

Many questions still dey wey pipo dey find asnwers to.

Wetin Putin go do next

Inside one shocking 24 hours, Vladimir Putin face di greatest challenge to im authority since im enta power more dan 20 years ago.

Even though e be like say dem contain di immediate risk, Russia experts say Putin no be like say im go come out strong but badly bruised.

E be like say Mr Putin tok-tok about betrayal reflect for im strong National TV address on Saturday morning, wia im accuse Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin say im “stab am for back” and treason.

Dem neva see Russian president for public since and dem no Dey plan any new presidential address in di near future.

For one pre-recorded interview on state TV on Sunday wey be like say dem don already record am before di rebellion-Mr Putin say im Dey confident on how di Ukraine war dey progress.

Anti-terror security measures still stand gidigba for Moscow, but e no dey clear weda President Putin dey for di Russian capital at di moment.

Some dey expect say Mr Putin go para for dem in a way, either military for Ukraine, or e go para for di pipo wey dey inside Russian wey no dey support dem.

Polish MEP Radek Sirkoski tell di BBC say di Russian leader fit “purge di pipo wey dey shaky shaky” e mean say im regime go become” more authoritarian and more brutal di same time”.

Wetin Prigozhin dey go do for Belarus

Di man wey dey behind di rebellion, Yevgeny Prigozhin na free man. Even though im dey try to topple di military leadership for Russia, dem don drop di charge of armed mutiny against am.

But we no sabi all di details of di agreement wey Kremlin and Wagner do.

Russian analysts no expect Prigozhin to disappear quietly into di night.

Di mercenary leader- wey don become ogbonge figurehead for tens of thousands of fighters for Ukraine-don also become an important figure for President Putin, operating from di shadows for a very long time.

Im don spend plenty years to do dirty work for Kremlin, from fighting for Syria to fighting for Ukraine since 2014 wen Russia bin cut Crimea off from Ukraine by force.

But afta im challenge Mr Putin authority-and some argue say im humiliate di Russian leader-questions about di guarantees wey dem give am for im security, and im role going forward, dem need to answer dem.

Observers dey question how control Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko go fit give over Prigozhin- if true true im dey go Minsk- and, if Wagner forces go follow am, which lain threat dem go pose to Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

Wetin go happun to di Wagner Group now

Before dis shocking armed mutiny , tens of thousands of Wagner mercenaries bin dey play key role for Mr Putin war against Ukraine. But di days of Wagner as independent army bin don dey end.

Prongozhin and im forces bin don dey resist pressure to absorb dem inside di Russian defence ministry- and dem see di annoyance of dat move as key factor wey turn quarrel wey don tey well well to rebellion.

But with di katakata wey no last long-and Prigozhin wey be like say im don dey run comot from town, many pipo dey ask wetin im fighters go do.

Dem don drop charges against di pipo wey get hand for di mutiny. Videos for social media show as Wagner troops dey comot from di city of Rostov-on-Don, wia dem bin don take control of military bases. Di Govnor of Voronezh wey Dey halfway between Rostov and Moscow , bin tok say Wagner forces dey also comot from im region.

However, e neva still dey clear weda dem co-operate and joined dem into di Russian military- or even Russia regular sojas go now willingly serve with dem.

And if dem go simply return to fighting for zones wey katakata dey since for Ukraine, and Russian state media dey suggest? Some analysts don raise concerns say fighters fit follow Prigozhin go west if im go back to Belarus- di closest point from wia Russia fit attack Ukraine capital Kyiv.

How e fit affect war for Ukraine?

Di Wagner group bin don dey provide di most successful shock troops fighting in Ukraine, even though dem get many of dia fighters from prison, wey dem lure with di promise of freedom for frontline service. Dem get hand well well inside Russia capture of di city of Bakhmut, for example.

Russia claim say di rebellion no affect dia campaign for Ukraine so far.

However, Russian forces for sure go donhear wetin dey go on and di news fit reduce dia moral and ginger. Some suggest say rival units fit dey fight dem sefs inside in di coming days, depending on di type of afta shocks wey remain for Russia afta wetin happun on Saturday.

In Ukraine, to add to di concern of risks say Russia fit blow out dia involvement, military leaders go dey search for opportunities from across di border wey neva balance.

Kyiv forces don launch one counter-offensive to collect back territories wey occupiers don capture and dem believe say katakata for Russia go give dem “window of opportunity”

One former US Ambassador to Ukraine, Bill Taylor, tell BBC say Ukrainian forces bin dey”in a good position” to exploit di tactical weaknesses wey di sudden movement of Wagner fighters expose.

Wetin di US and oda know on advance?

While di mutiny wey Prigozhin do be like say e catch di Kremlin off guard, US spy agencies don already pick up signs say im bin dey plan to act and im don brief President Joe Biden along with ogbonge congressional leaders early dis week, US media report.

US intelligence see di mercenary leader as im dey gada weapons, ammunition and oda equipment near di border with Russia, tori pipo CNN report.

According to di New York Times, President Biden bin don do tok-tok with di leaders of France, Germany and di UK sake of concerns say Mr Putin control over di plenti nuclear weapons wey Russia get fit comot from im hand sake of di katakata.

US spy chiefs bin don dey track dey relationship between Prigozhin and Russia defence officials wey no to strong again for months and intelligence don conclude say na sign say di war for Ukraine dey go badly for both Wagner and di regular military, di paper tok.

Meanwhile di Washington post say di US fit don pick up say Prigozhin dey plan something as early as middle of June.

One tin wey trigger dem na si decree on 10 June wey Russia defence ministry order all volunteer detachments -like di Wagner Group - to sign contract with goment , wey go effectively become a takeover of Prigozhin mercenary troops.

Officials tell di paper say”plenti signals bin dey to make di leadership know say…sometin dey happun” but di exact nature of wetin Prigozhin dey plan no dey clear until wen time bin don near

for di mutiny to start.

President Putin intelligence crew bin don tell am say Prigozhin dey plan sometin, na wetin di paper report. E no Dey clear about di exact time wey dem tell am, but “e definitely pass 24 hours ago” di paper quote say na wetin one US official tok on Saturday.

Wetin di Russian pipo think

Mr Putin address to di nation as di katakata Dey unfold dey show how im seriously dey view di threat and di need for am to stand im ground to di Russian public.

“ Many inside di élite go personally blame Putin for di fact say evritin go dis far and say proper reaction bin no dey for di president early enough,” one ogbonge analyst Tatiana Stanovaya write for Telegram.

“Therefore, this whole story na also a blow to Putin positions.

While e dey hard to draw conclusions about overall Russia Republic opinion, di leaders for di kontri suppose to dey concerned by di way wey civilians dey wey stand look dem dey clap for Wagner units for di city of Rostov.

As Wagner troops comot from di city dem bin don effectively take control of during dia rebellion, supportive crowd begin greet and clap for dem and even snap pictures with dem.

However, e dey important to note say some residents bin don already rush to comot from di city by train on Saturday afta Wagner showface.