Oscars 2026 predictions: Who is the favourite to win?

An eventful and unpredictable awards season reaches its finale on Sunday with the Oscars, Hollywood’s biggest night of the year.

Anticipating who might win is never easy and several races this year are too close to call.

You can make an educated guess about the winners, but the joy of awards season is that nothing is ever 100% certain.

If Academy voters love a particular film or actor, they’re unlikely to be swayed by other awards ceremonies.

That said, previous events in recent weeks, such as the Critics' Choice, the Golden Globes, Bafta Awards and Actor Awards, provide a valuable indicator of support and momentum.

The Oscar winners are voted for by the members of the Academy - more than 11,000 professionals who work in the film industry.

Here's a round-up of what the precursor events tell us:

Political thriller One Battle After Another might be the frontrunner in this category, but vampire horror Sinners is giving it a run for its money.

One Battle has won the top prize at many of the earlier film awards and industry guild events, suggesting it has the support to win best picture at the Oscars, as well as best director for Paul Thomas Anderson.

But it would be foolish to dismiss Sinners, which broke the record for the most Oscars nominations with 16, surpassing the 14 nominations received by Titanic, All About Eve and La La Land.

Ryan Coogler's film might have an uphill battle - but given the clear support for Sinners within the Academy, the top category is ripe for an upset.

Although other films such as Hamnet have picked up the occasional prize along the way, this year’s best picture category is a two-horse race.

Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme) had some early momentum in the best actor race, but we've also seen wins for Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent), Michael B Jordan (Sinners) and Robert Aramayo (I Swear) - who isn't even nominated at the Oscars.

Michael B Jordan is perhaps the current frontrunner thanks to his recent Actor Award win, which occurred in the early days of Oscar voting.

But it's still a tight race and could go several different ways, which makes best actor perhaps the most unpredictable category of this year's awards season.

This is a nice easy one. Irish actress Jessie Buckley has been winning this category throughout the awards season for her performance in Hamnet.

Although nothing is ever guaranteed at the Oscars, Buckley is the closest thing we have to a locked winner in any major category this year.

There was a slightly chaotic start in the supporting actor race this year, with Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein) and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) scoring some early wins.

In recent weeks, however, Sean Penn (One Battle After Another) has gained significant momentum.

He scored the Bafta and Actor Award, despite not attending either ceremony, and could now be on course to win the third Oscar of his career.

The precursor events have struggled to agree on the supporting actress race. Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) is the only contender to have been nominated at every major ceremony, and also won the category at the Golden Globes.

But British actress Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) took the prize on home soil at the Baftas, while Amy Madigan (Weapons) won the trophy at the Critics Choice and Actor Awards.

Madigan is in a strong position as things stand, but, unlike her two closest competitors, Taylor and Mosaku, she may suffer from her film not being nominated for best picture, which could mean fewer voters will have made the time to watch it.

But any of the three has a path to winning on Sunday, which is what makes this one of the most exciting categories this year.

Photo credits: Getty Images, Focus Features and Warner Bros