Green Party candidate Hannah Spencer has just arrived at the count, amid speculation she is about to win the by-election.

Kevin Fitzpatrick
Greater Manchester political reporter

The candidates from the big three parties have begun arriving in anticipation of the result being announced.

Labour’s Angeliki Stogia was first, putting a brave face on and flanked by Lucy Powell. She was quickly surrounded by supportive colleagues wearing red rosettes.

Next was Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin, who slid past photographers with his team, senior party figures notable by their absence.

The crowd at the entrance though is waiting for the apparent winner to walk through. Still not announced, it appears all but certain that the Green Party’s Hannah Spencer will arrive soon, ready to be confirmed as Gorton and Denton’s next MP.

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Image source, Reuters

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

From a Green Party source: "It's looking like Labour are in third and they only have themselves to blame for failing to deliver any change in government. Voters are tired of them and turning to what the Greens are offering."

We can now see the podium being set up in Manchester - although no returning officer is visible yet. This could suggest we are getting closer to the result being announced.

Labour's deputy leader didn't concede the election, but she got as close as possiblepublished at 03:29 GMT

03:29 GMT

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

Lucy Powell didn’t concede this by-election, but she got about as close as possible without doing so.

That felt like the biggest turning point of the night.

The ability of the three parties to get out their vote - to make sure their supporters turned up at the ballot box - was always going to be key.

Labour’s deputy leader said the Greens did a better job of that.

There were hints about where the debate within the Labour Party may now go.

Lucy Powell was the only member of Labour’s ruling National Executive Committee to vote for Andy Burnham to be allowed to stand here.

She wouldn’t go as far to say that Keir Starmer’s decision to block him was the reason Labour lost.

But she did say that it was a different conversation for a different day. I suspect that day may come sooner rather than later.

She also said that she’d argued that Labour couldn’t out-Reform Reform.

That’s a clear hint that she - and others - will likely call for Keir Starmer to move the party to the left - to go after the voters they’re losing to the Greens, instead of the voters they’re losing to Reform.

There’s a big caveat to all this - we haven’t had the result yet.

But nobody here is now claiming that it’s too close to call.

Chris Mason
Political editor

A Green source, who has already said they’re very confident they are going to win the Gorton and Denton seat, says: "We are confident we did well in Denton as well as the Manchester part of the constituency."

If the Green Party's Hannah Spencer has won, she'll have "written her place in the history books as the first Green candidate to manage to win a parliamentary by-election", says Prof John Curtice, polling expert.

But what would it mean for Labour?

Curtice doesn't think a significant move against PM Keir Starmer is likely before the 7 May elections in Scotland, Wales, and some English councils.

To push the party into a "leadership crisis" just weeks before this would be "very, very unusual", he says.

"There isn't anybody who is obviously Keir Starmer's successor", he adds - referencing the fact that Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham doesn't currently have a Westminster seat.

Chris Mason
Political editor

A Labour MP texts me: "Everyone knew the only chance to beat both the Greens and Reform was Andy Burnham.

"Keir clearly thought he would look tough blocking him but with the disastrous few weeks and terrible policy across a number of areas we've managed to isolate not only our base but the broad coalition we rely on to win elections.

"Keir needs to own this. He's out of chances. You can't claim to be the party of unity when you’re adopting the divisive policies of Reform. Vote Labour to stop Reform rings hollow when you’re mimicking them.”

Pressed on whether Labour would've won if Andy Burnham was the candidate, Labour's deputy leader Lucy Powell replies, "that's a different discussion for a different day".

"Had he won this seat we would've been facing a [mayoral] by-election across Greater Manchester as well," she says.

As a reminder, Burnham - the Greater Manchester Mayor - was blocked by a Labour committee from standing as a candidate, although Powell voted for him to be allowed to stand.

Powell also says: "We do need to change how we operate, the prime minister has made that clear over recent weeks."

Asked if Labour has come third, Powell says the contest was still "very tight".

"I don't think we've got the full results yet," she says.

Asked whether events in Gorton and Denton could prompt renewed calls for PM Keir Starmer to step down, deputy Labour leader Lucy Powell says: "I hope not."

She says all of Labour has come together as "one team" with a "united message" during this campaign. "That’s when we show ourselves at our best," she adds.

But Powell also says the party needs to "give a much clearer account" of itself and its "Labour values".

She says Labour needs to "redouble our efforts" to make sure people understand what the party stands for.

Image source, PA Media

Asked whether she blames Labour's ruling NEC for the decision to block Andy Burnham from standing, Powell says Burnham has been out campaigning with the party, which has been working "as one Labour team".

"Conversations about Andy standing were the story of a few weeks ago," she says, adding: "We have all moved on from that."

Labour's deputy leader Lucy Powell tells the BBC that while the final result of the count is not yet clear, it is "clear that the Green Party have turned out their vote more strongly than we have this evening".

Powell says there is a "clear majority" in the Gorton and Denton constituency who want to reject Reform UK, "and while we're making our best arguments, the Green Party have been able to do that more effectively than we have".

Image source, EPA

Chris Mason
Political editor

A Green Party source says: "We are very confident of a win."

Andrew Gwynne resigned as the MP for Gorton and Denton in January due to ill health, triggering the by-election.

He was elected as a Labour MP in 2005 (in a previous Denton and Reddish constituency), but was suspended from the party last year after sending offensive WhatsApp messages.

At the 2024 general election, Gwynne won Gorton and Denton with a majority of more than 13,000, securing over 50% of the vote. Reform UK came in second with around 14% of the vote, and the Greens in third with around 13%.

Putting aside some boundary changes, the constituency has long been considered a safe Labour seat.

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

A Green Party source is claiming that they believe Labour will come third.

But a Labour source says that different ballot boxes are proving successful for all three parties. They say that claims made by Reform and the Greens are not based on anything.

Jennifer McKiernan
Political reporter

It still seems to be all to play for, with votes still being counted and parties playing their cards close to their chests.

However, a bullish Green source claims "Labour has shown it is not up to the job" of stopping Reform.

"We've said from the start that we weren't here to be disappointed with Labour but to replace them, and from day one of this by-election, we've said only Greens could beat Reform.

"We need to wait for the results to come in but whatever happens, it's fair to say Greens are here to stay as the progressive voice of British politics."

Jack Fenwick
Political correspondent

Turnout often goes down in by-elections - but one Labour source I spoke to here said 47.62% is a lower figure than they expected.

The Greens are maintaining that they are the only party capable of beating Reform here, but are still saying the result is too close to call.

A Reform source is claiming that Labour will come third, which they say is an "amazing result no matter" what else happens.

Jennifer McKiernan
Political reporter

We've just heard the by-election turnout is 47.62%, which is a relatively high amount.

Turnout for the general election in this constituency in the 2024 general election was 47.8%, so for the by-election to effectively match that is unusual.

It's worth noting this figure is not yet finalised - some ballot papers are likely to be rejected as spoiled, for example.

We've just received the figures on voter turnout for the Gorton and Denton by-election - 36,903 votes were cast.

That is 47.62% of the electorate - slightly lower than at the 2024 general election, when it was 47.8%.

Image source, Reuters

Political scientist Rob Ford describes the seat of Gorton and Denton as "a tale of two Manchesters on opposite edges of Labour's unravelling electoral coalition".

The constituency was only created in 2024, but historically the area has been a Labour stronghold.

One side of the constituency is home to lots of university students and graduates and the population is 40% Muslim. The other part is 83% white, with many in low-paying jobs.

Greater Manchester political reporter Kevin Fitzpatrick describes it as one of the most diverse constituencies in the country - and one with some of the most deprived council wards.

There are up-and-coming streets with nice cafes and grocery shops but also places where units are shuttered. Cost-of-living pressures are prevalent, and relative child poverty is twice the national UK average.