Kevin Peachey
Cost of living correspondent

These are strange times - given that energy bills for millions of people are about to fall, but there is lots of talk about helping people to pay.

Millions of people in England, Scotland and Wales have the price of each unit of gas and electricity governed by regulator Ofgem’s price cap.

The next cap, kicking in at the start of April, was set before the Iran war. Hence, the fall of 7% on a typical bill.

But the subsequent cap, starting in July, is now almost certain to be a big jump.

Analysts at the energy consultancy Cornwall Insight has forecast that a dual-fuel household using a typical amount of gas and electricity would pay £1,973 a year, up from the current £1,641.

That has prompted demands for targeted help from the government for those who would struggle the most, and perhaps are already behind on payments to their supplier.

Chris Mason
Political editor

Image source, Getty Images

In the Commons later, the chancellor will focus on the domestic impact of the ongoing situation in the Middle East.

I am told there will be three elements to her address to MPs, beginning with a short update on how the war is affecting the economy.

There will also be a section on energy security, with a promise to crack on with delivering new nuclear power stations. The legislation to allow this to happen is expected later this year and will be set out in the King's Speech in May.

What is described as "a new anti profiteering framework" will be set out too, which could give the regulator, the Competition and Markets Authority, new time limited and targeted powers to tackle companies proved to be exploiting price rises to rip customers off.

Reeves will then talk about the principles that will drive any further support to families if energy bills spiral in the coming months.

Given the energy price cap on gas and electricity is in place until the end of June, ministers have time to work out what might be feasible, affordable and necessary.

The chancellor will indicate that she believes it wouldn't be fair or affordable, in all likelihood, to offer every household help.

Another message we can expect to hear from ministers amounts to, as one figure put it to me, "going gangbusters on renewables and nuclear".

With the Conservatives, Reform UK and some Labour MPs calling for new drilling for oil and gas to be authorised in the North Sea, the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband told a meeting of Labour backbenchers last night: "Anyone who tells you that new licences in the North Sea will make any difference to price is not telling you the truth. Because gas is bought and sold on the international market and the price is set there."

• Read more from Chris Mason: Reeves to set out principles on who might get energy bills support - and who won't

Image source, Getty Images

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to speak in the Commons shortly, addressing the domestic economic impact of the ongoing US-Israel war with Iran.

It's expected she'll lay out the government's strategy for support for families if energy bills rise in the coming months.

While typical household energy bills will fall on 1 April when the new energy price cap takes effect, the cost could rise sharply this summer due to a jump in oil prices since the start of the war.

The price for a barrel of oil moved above $100 again this morning after a brief reprieve. That figure is still substantially higher than it was before the war

We expect Reeves to speak from the Commons around 12:30 GMT - you'll be able to watch live at the top of the page.