BBC response to letter from Green Party regarding next year's proposed election debates
The BBC has today responded to a letter from the Green Party, which expressed disappointment at the proposals unveiled by the UK’s four leading broadcasters for election debates next year.
Published: 4 November 2014
In a letter to Penny Kemp, the Greens' Director of Communications, the BBC’s Chief Political Adviser has said that the relevant evidence of electoral support which informed the proposal, is “strong and clear-cut”.
The letter says that: “UKIP has demonstrated a substantial increase in electoral support since 2010* across a range of elections along with a consistent and robust trend across a full range of opinion polls; the Green Party has not demonstrated any comparable increase in support in either elections or opinion polls. The performance in elections of the Greens in relation to the Liberal Democrats has been mainly the result of the decrease in support for the latter as opposed to a significant increase in support for the Green Party; opinion polls do not as yet demonstrate that the Greens have drawn level with the Liberal Democrats. Even if they did, we would still, of course, be taking as our starting point the result of the 2010 general election, where the Lib Dems took more than 50 seats and 23% share of the vote, demonstrating a level of electoral support overall substantially ahead of the Green Party.”
The letter goes on to say that the BBC “will continue to keep any new evidence of increased support for the Green Party under close review” and that if the debate proposal is successful, the BBC would be “offering appropriate opportunities to other political parties – including the Green Party – to ensure that the BBC’s election coverage does satisfy the overarching obligation of due impartiality across the UK.”
The letter in full sent by email and post to Penny Kemp on 24 October 2014:
"Dear Penny
Thank you for your letter of 15th October regarding the proposals set out by the four broadcasters for televised debates at the next general election, which we discussed on the 13th October.
As you know, the proposed BBC UK-wide debate would involve the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. We have made clear that if this proposal is successful, we would, of course, be offering appropriate opportunities to other political parties – including the Green Party – to ensure that the BBC’s election coverage does satisfy the overarching obligation of due impartiality across the UK. This is the same general approach that was taken in relation to the televised debates (involving, as you know, the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats) before the 2010 general election.
In doing so, we are using the longstanding approach to satisfying the requirements of due impartiality as set out in previous versions of the BBC’s Election Guidelines, i.e. applying the objective criteria by which we assess electoral support. This was an appropriate approach to deciding representation in the proposed television debates, applying the most recent version of the Election Guidelines from 2010 and we enclose a copy for your information.
We refer you in particular to paragraph 3.1 of the Guidelines. We anticipate that the substance of this guidance is likely to be replicated for 2015, although you may wish to note that the draft election guidelines for 2015 will be published by the BBC Trust early next month for a public consultation process. I am sure the Trust would welcome a submission from the Green Party.
As the Guidelines set out, in making judgements about the relative amount of coverage we give to political parties – which is within the BBC’s editorial discretion - we take as a starting point the levels of electoral support obtained in the previous equivalent election (here, the 2010 general election) in terms of representation and/or share of the vote. We then take into account indications of more recent and current levels of support, such as performance in European and local authority elections, Westminster by-elections, as well as consistent and robust opinion poll evidence, giving “due weight” to the various factors. In determining weight, we take into account the different voting methods used in those elections. We also take into account the number of candidates fielded in the election. This list of relevant factors is re-assessed at each election.
In your letter, you have highlighted the position of the Green Party with reference to the Liberal Democrats, so I shall set out the broader comparative evidence between the two parties. However, much of the public comment on this matter has concentrated on the position of the Green Party relative to UKIP, so I shall also set out those comparisons. I should also emphasise, though, that in reaching our proposals, we considered the position of the Greens more generally.
Taking as the starting point the general election of 2010: the BBC does attach weight to the advance made by the Green Party in winning its first Parliamentary seat in the House of Commons. Nevertheless, its performance, in winning one seat and a 1% share of the vote (a small drop) puts it some way behind the three largest parties in Westminster on both counts. The Liberal Democrats secured 23% (an increase of 1%) and 57 seats (a drop of 5). UKIP did not win a seat – it did, however, win a 3.1% share (more than three times as many votes as the Green party.)
In looking at other subsequent elections, we have given careful consideration to the performance of political parties, including the Green Party of England and Wales, in assessing evidence of substantially changed electoral support since 2010. That involves considering the position in England and Wales, where your party stands candidates, although I will be writing to the Scottish Green Party, enclosing a copy of this letter and addressing the particular issues there.
To take the most relevant elections chronologically (Sources: Rallings & Thrasher Local Elections Handbooks, Commons Library and published BBC results tables):
- In the Welsh Assembly election, in 2011, the Green party took 3.4% of the vote in the list section (only standing in six constituency contests) and did not win any seats, with neither an increase nor a decrease in support. The Liberal Democrats received 8% in the list section, winning 4 seats and more than 10% in the constituencies section, taking one seat. UKIP won no seats and took 4.6% of the vote (list section only).
- The same year in England, the Green party returned just under 80 local councillors, an increase of 14. The Liberal Democrats, the smallest of the three larger parties, won over a thousand seats, a loss of nearly 750. UKIP returned eight councillors.
- The following year, in the local government elections in England & Wales (outside London), the Green Party returned around 26 councillors, an increase of about five. This compares with the Liberal Democrats, who returned 360 councillors, losing nearly two hundred seats. Nine UKIP councillors were elected.
- In the GLA elections in 2012: the Green Party came third in the contest both for the Mayoralty and the London Assembly (in list voting - fourth in constituency votes). Jenny Jones secured 4 and a half per cent of first preference votes, 0.3% ahead of the Liberal Democrat candidate, with UKIP returning 2%. The Green Party won 8.5% of the Assembly (list) votes, an increase of 0.1%, winning two seats. The Liberal Democrats, with 6.8% - down four and a half points - also won two seats, UKIP, with 4.5% of the vote, did not win a seat.
- In the 2013 local government elections, the Green Party returned 22 councillors, an increase of five. The Liberal Democrats returned over 350, losing more than 120. UKIP returned 147 councillors – an increase of 139.
- In the 2014 European elections, the Green party increased from two seats to three, albeit with a slightly reduced share of the vote at just under 8%. The party was ahead of the Liberal Democrats, who returned only one MEP, exactly one percentage point behind. UKIP topped the poll with more than 27% (up more than 10 percentage points), winning 24 seats.
- In the 2014 local elections, the Green party won nearly 40 council seats, an increase of nearly 20; the Lib Dems won well over 400, a decrease of more than 300. UKIP more than 160, almost all of them an increase on the last time the seats were contested. UKIP now has 370 councillors, more than twice as many as the Greens.
- Across 18 Westminster by-elections since 2010, the Green Party has never saved a deposit, the best showing being just over 4% in Cardiff and Penarth, in November 2012. The party has beaten the Lib Dems twice, in Newark and Clacton, both in 2014, albeit with a share of the vote below 3% on both occasions. Since the beginning of 2013, UKIP has come second in every by-election, except Clacton, which it won. Across the Parliament so far, the three parties average share of the vote in by-elections has been: UKIP just under 16%; Lib Dems just under 9%; Greens 2.5%.
Turning now to “other relevant evidence of current electoral support”, which is interpreted primarily as a “consistent and robust trend” in opinion polls. We have used all Westminster intention polls conducted since the 2014 European and local elections published by eight leading companies (excluding YouGov’s daily polling), with their varying methodologies.
It is true to say that the gap between the Liberal Democrats and the Green party has narrowed considerably since 2010. However, the evidence does not – at the moment – support the claim that the parties are “neck and neck”. In half the polls conducted since the European and local elections in May 2014, the Greens have been within three percentage points of the Lib Dems; in six they were level and in two polls by Lord Ashcroft - one at the beginning of June, the other in October - they were a point ahead. In all the other polls used (55 out of 110), the Liberal Democrats were ahead by more than 3 percentage points. The Greens’ average rating is under 5%, compared to the Liberal Democrats at over 8%.
This does not represent a “consistent and robust trend” which would suggest that the Greens are yet equalling the Liberal Democrats and the average of the most recent polling, in October, still has the Greens just below 5% and the Liberal Democrats just over 8%.
With regard to UKIP, the same polls have demonstrated a consistent and robust trend over a sustained period suggesting the party’s current electoral support is around 15%. In 110 polls commissioned since the European and local elections, in all but four UKIP have been ahead of the Lib Dems, averaging nearly double their share and polling three times the share of the Green party.
With regard to the number of candidates standing, it is, of course, too early to take such comparisons into account. However, I understand the Green party is aiming to contest 75% of constituencies; both the Liberal Democrats and UKIP are aiming to contest nearly all constituencies. I should emphasise that such a difference was not a major factor in our judgement in making the proposals.
In making an editorial judgement about the Green party, relative to other political parties, the evidence is strong and clear-cut: UKIP has demonstrated a substantial increase in electoral support since 2010* across a range of elections along with a consistent and robust trend across a full range of opinion polls; the Green party has not demonstrated any comparable increase in support in either elections or opinion polls. The performance in elections of the Greens in relation to the Liberal Democrats has been mainly the result of the decrease in support for the latter as opposed to a significant increase in support for the Green Party; opinion polls do not as yet demonstrate that the Greens have drawn level with the Liberal Democrats. Even if they did, we would still, of course, be taking as our starting point the result of the 2010 general election, where the Lib Dems took more than 50 seats and 23% share of the vote, demonstrating a level of electoral support overall substantially ahead of the Green party.
As I made clear in our phone conversation, we will continue to keep any new evidence of increased support for the Green party under close review. I also indicated that the BBC would want to talk to representatives of the party as we attempt, with other broadcasters, to make progress in reaching an agreement over our proposals for debates and in ensuring the impartiality of our coverage.
Given that your letter was made available publicly, we also plan to publish this response.
Yours sincerely
Ric Bailey, Chief Adviser, Politics, BBC"
BBC Press Office
*We originally stated that increase in electoral support for UKIP had grown since 2014. This has now been corrected to 2010.
