Wace dabara Iran ke amfani da ita a yaƙinta da Amurka da Isra'ila?

Amurka da Isra'ila sun ce hare-haren da suka kai ya karya lagon rundunar sojin Iran.

Shugaban Amurka Donald Trump ya ce "an lalata tsaron sararin samaniyarsu, da ƙarfin sojin ruwansu, da tsarin shugabancinsu."

Ya ƙara da cewa: "Suna son a tattauna. Amma na ce musu lokaci ya ƙure!"

A martanin da ta mayar, Iran ta ce tana kare kanta ne ta hanyar ƙaddamar da hare-hare kan Isra'ila da wasu ƙasashen Gabas ta Tsakiya da Amurka take da sansanonin soji.

Sai dai ganin yadda Isra'ila da Amurka ke da ƙarfin soji, waɗanne zaɓi Iran ke da su a wannan yaƙi.

Lalata dukiyoyi

Wai masani harkoki tsaro a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya H. E. Hellyer, ya ce salon da sojin Iran ke amfani da shi bai wai tana da burin yin nasara ba ne a kan Amurka ko Isra'ila a yaƙi da take, amma tana son duk wanda zai yi nasara a yaƙin sai ya ji a jikinsa kuma tattalin arzikinsa ya girgiza.

"Iran ba za ta iya yin nasara a yaƙi ba, amma tana son duk wanda zai yi nasara a kanta sai ya yi asarar maƙudan kuɗaɗe, abin da ba kowa zai iya ba," in ji shi.

Shi ma Nicole Grajewski, mataimakin Farfesa a cibiyar nazarin ƙasa da ƙasa ya yarda da wannan hasashen.

Ya bayyana salon da Iran ke amfani da shi a matsayin na "karya lagon abokin gaba"; salon da sojoji ke amfani da shi wajen rage ƙarfin abokan hamayyarsu domin rage musu ƙwarin gwiwar ci gaba da yaƙi.

Wananan salon ma yana da tasiri ta fuskar karsashinu.

"A yaƙin da aka yi na tsawon kwanaki 12 tsakanin Isra'ila da Iran a shekarar da ta gabata, Iran ta fi kai hari a yankunan fararen hula sosai," in ji Nicole Grajewski.

"Ba su damu da zahiri ba. Hakan yana haifar da fargaba a tsakanin al'umma.

An yi amannar cewa makamai masu linzami da jirage marasa matuƙa su ne abin da rundunar tsaron Iran ke bugun ƙirji da su.

Nicole Grajewski, ya ce ana hasashen an ɓarnata rumbun muggan makamai masu linzamin Iran a yaƙin kwanaki 12 da aka yi a shekarar da ta gabata, amma ba za a iya tabbatar da adadin ba saboda wasu maɓoya da suke da su na ƙarkashin ƙasa da kuma yunƙurin sake ƙera wasu.

Isra'ila ta yi ƙiyasin cewa Iran tana da makamai masu linzami kusan 2,500 a watan Fabrerun 2026.

Daga cikinsu akwai masu ci gajeren zango da bai wuce kilomita 1,000 ba, da kuma masu cin matsakaicin zago tsakanin kilomita 1,000 zuwa 3,000.

Hukumomin Iran sun ce sun yi amfani makamai masu linzami irinsu "Sajil", wanda aka ce yana iya nisan zangon kusan kilomita 2,000, da kuma "Fattah", wanda Iran ɗin ta ce ya fi kowanne sauri.

"Garuruwan makamai masu linzami"

Iraniyawa da kafafen yaɗa labaran ƙasa na kiran wuraren da aka ɓoye makamai masu linzamin ƙasar da "garuruwan makamai masu linzami," ko da yake ba a iya tabbatar da bayanai kan wuraren ba.

Sai dai babban kwamandan Amurka, Janar Dan Keene, ya ce yanayin yadda Iran ke harba muggan makamai masu linzami ya ragu da kusan kashi 86 tun bayan fara yaƙi a ranar Asabar, 28 ga watan Fabreru.

Ita ma hedikwatar tsaron Amurka ta ruwaito cewa an samu raguwar kashi 23 a ranar Talata 4 ga watan Maris.

Duk da haka, Mista Hellyer ya ce "har yanzu Iran tana da ƙarfin kai hare-hare kan Isra'ila da sansanonin sojin Amurka da ke yankin Gulf, inda ya ce akwai babbar barazana game da jigilar makamashi ga duniya ta mashigar Hormuz."

"Ko yaya aka samu matsala a mashigar, za a samu ƙalubale ga tattalin arzikin duniya," in ji shi.

Kusan kashi 20 na man duniya yana bi ta wannan mashigar ne, inda Iran ta kulle shi, kuma ta sha alwashin kai hari kan duk wani jirgin da ya yi yunƙurin bi ta wajen.

Nicole Grajewski ya ce duk da cewa Iran za ta iya fuskantar ƙarancin makamai masu linzami na zamani da kuma mai, tana da tarin jirage marasa matuƙa.

Iran ta ƙera dubban jiragen Shahid marasa matuƙa kafin fara yaƙin. An ba Rasha samfurin wannan jirgin, kum ita ma Amurka ta ƙera irin shi.

Yawanci ana amfani da waɗannan jiragen ne domin wani salo na yaƙi ba wai dan lalata wasu wurare ba.

Dabarar ita ce a rikita tsaron sararin samaniyar abokan gaba kuma a tilasta su yin amfani da na'urorin kakkaɓo makamai masu tsada.

"Wannan salon yana rikita ƙarfin kakkaɓo makamai," in ji Nicole Grajewski.

Ya ƙara da cewa: "Iran ta yi amfani da wannan salon. Kuma shi ne abin da Rasha ta yi a yaƙinta da Ukraine."

Sai dai, Amurka ta ce amfani da jirage marasa matuƙan Iran ya ragu da kashi 73 tun bayan fara yaƙin.

Cibiyar Nazarin Tsaro ta Ƙasa da ke Tel Aviv ta ce, Amurka da Isra'ila sun ƙaddamar da hare-hare sama da 2,000, yayin da Iran ta harba makamai masu linzami 571 da jirage marasa matuƙa 1,391, inda ta kakkaɓo da dama daga cikinsu.

Masana sun ce amfani da wannan salon zai wahalar da dukkanin ɓangarorin idan aka ci gaba da yaƙin.

Ɗaukar dogon lokaci ana yaƙi

Iran tana daga cikin ƙasashen da suka fi yawan rudunar tsaro a yankin Gabas ta Tsakiya.

Wani rahoton Cibiyar Nazarin Ƙasa da Ƙasa kan ƙarfin soji a shekarar 2025 ya ce, Iran tana da kusan jami'ai kusan 610,000, cikinsu akwai 350,000 da ke aikin sojin ƙasar da kuma 190,000 da suke rundunar juyin juya hali, waɗanda suke aikin samar da jirage marasa matuƙa da makamai masu linzami da kuma wasu ayyuka a yankin.

Haka ma Iran tana dogaro ne kan ƙawacen yankin, ciki har da mayaƙan Houthi a Yemen, da 'yan Hebollah a Lebanon da mayaƙan ƙungiyoyi a Iraƙi da kuma Hamas.

Nicole Grajewski ya ce duk da wasu takunkumai da Iran ke fuskanta, ƙasar tana da daɗaɗɗen tarihin jurewa dogon faɗa.

Hakan ya samo asali ne tun a yaƙin Iran da Iraƙi, inda aka kai musu hare-hare a birane da dama duk da raunin da take da shi na makaman yaƙi na zamani.

Amma kuma juriyar Iran na iya kasancewa saboda tsarin da ta gina ne a cikin gida.

"Ya danganta daga yadda jami'an tsaronta suka haɗa kansu da kuma jagororin siyasa ta yadda ba za a samu rabuwar kawuna ba," in ji Nicole Grajewski.

Ya ƙara da cewa: "Akwai yiwuwar masu sarrafa makamai masu linzamin sun gaji sosai, abin da ya sa suke kai hari bisa kuskure wuraren da ba su kamata ba. Yawancinsu sun galabaita a wannan gaɓa."

A wannan matakin da aka kai, yaƙin zai iya faɗaɗa sakamkon hare-hare kan maɓoyar makamai masu linzamin Iran da kuma dakarun su.

Ƙarin rikici

Nicole Grajewski ya ba da misali da bayanin da Turkiya ta yi na cewa na'urorin tsaron sararin samaniyar NATO sun lalata muggan makaman Iran da suka bi ta saman ƙasar.

Ƙasar ta Turkiya da ke maƙotaka da Iran, na ƙoƙarin shiga tsakanin Amurka da Iran kafin yaƙin ya ɓarke, inda ta yi gargaɗin cewa "ya kamata duka ɓangarorin su tsagaita wuta kafin lamarin ya wuce gona da iri."

Sai dai Nicole Grajewski na ganin cewa babban burin Iran shi ne, ta takura wa maƙotan ƙasashenta, har su kai ga matsa wa Amurka lamba ta shiga tattaunawar da za ta kawo ƙarshe rikicin da ake yi.

Ya ƙara da cewa: "Ba mu san ko cewa hakan zai yiwu ba, amma ina tunanin kasadar da Iran ke son yi kenan."

Sai dai ya ce ƙaiƙayi zai iya komawa kan masheƙiya.

Mista Hellyer ya ce ƙasashen nahiyar Gulf "suna iya yanke shawarar cewa, duk da suna yi adawa da yaƙin Amurka da Isra'ila a kan Iran, sun cikin barazanar tsaro idan sakamakon hare-haren Iran ɗin, to zai fi kyau su goyi bayan Amurka."

"Ba na tunanin ƙasashen yankin Gulf sun cimma wannan matsayar a yanzu, amma kuma ba su da isasshen lokaci," in ji shi.